2023 Turkish Raisin Harvest Report: Resilience Amid Challenges
The conclusion of the 2023 harvest season for Turkish raisins marks a period of resilience amid substantial challenges. From unforeseen weather conditions to market speculations, the journey through this season offers a rich narrative. Here's an insightful delve into the 2023 Turkish Raisin Crop scenario.
Frost Damage in March
March brought forth an unwelcomed cold wave, subjecting the vineyards to harsh frost conditions that posed a significant threat to the budding crop.
Disease Outbreak in June
June's persistent rains and overcast skies fostered a breeding ground for diseases like powder mildew. This occurrence had a substantial impact, creating a scenario never before witnessed in our business tenure.
Hailstorms: An Annual Adversary
As with every year, hailstorms made their mark, affecting the crop quantitatively in certain regions, further adding to the challenges of the season.
Rain Impact on Crop Coloration
The rains, particularly at the harvest's bookends, impacted color more than quality. This led to a scarcity of Type 10 and 11 raw material in the market, alongside a general coloration decrease across all species.
Disease: The Significant Crop Shrinker
Initially, optimism painted a picture of a crop exceeding 350,000 tons. However, disease altered this landscape drastically, nudging the estimates to a sobering 210-220,000 tons.
Market Dynamics: Price Fluctuations
Market speculation regarding the new crop amount brewed diverse opinions. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) alleviated some pressure by selling a significant portion of old product stock to exporters at favorable prices before the harvest. However, speculation drove a sharp spike in raw material prices from 40 TL/kg to 55 TL/kg within a mere span of 20-25 days.
Today's Market Prices
The market price for Type 9 raw material now hovers around 55 TL or 2,000 USD per kg, with the market price stretching between USD 2,350 – 2,400/ton FOB Izmir. This denotes a near 1,000 USD/ton increment within two months, reflecting robust market dynamism.
Long-Term Price Outlook
While a short-term price dip seems unlikely, the long-term vista could unveil some price reduction, influenced by several factors including Turkey's export volume, foreign exchange rate escalations, customer reactions to new price tiers, and competitive pricing pressures from nations like China, Iran, and South Africa. However, should the crop size plunge below 200,000 tons, a price decrease appears unlikely, with a slight price ascension on the horizon instead.
Comparative Insights: 2022 vs 2023 Crop
According to the Aegean Exporters Union report dated 30th September 2023, the 2023 crop exported 24,720 tons at an average price of USD 1,767, marking a 300-ton decrease from the 2022 crop which exported 25,406 tons at an average price of USD 1,641.
2023 Crop Numbers at a Glance
Estimated Total Quantity: 210-220,000 tons
Carry over from 2021 Crop: 50-60,000 tons
Registered Quantity (as of 01.10.2023): 16,000 tons
Exported Quantity (as of 30.09.2023): 25,000 tons
Estimated Domestic Consumption/year: 30-40,000 tons
Estimated Remaining Quantity: 100-110,000 tons
Keeping You Informed
As we navigate through the aftermath of this year's harvest, our commitment to keeping our partners and prospective partners informed on market developments remains steadfast.
The exploration into the 2023 Turkish raisin crop scenario unveils a tale of resilience, robust market dynamics, and the industry's promise despite adversities. Our journey through the challenges faced, and the promising outlook aims to provide a thorough understanding of the market, fostering informed decisions as we move forward.
