July 2026 Hazelnut Outlook — Turkey new-crop calm; layer procurement

📈 New-crop comfort is setting the tone

Turkey is coming into July with a calmer new-crop tone. Crop development is reported as very positive, and growing conditions are being described as among the best seen in recent years.

That matters because the market is not looking at new crop in isolation: carryover is also expected to support availability into the season. For buyers, the immediate message is that supply does not look tight enough to justify panic coverage before arrivals start to clarify the real shape of the crop. The trade is still waiting for new-crop flow, but the starting point is more comfortable than nervous.

🚢 Demand is not strong enough to make this a one-way call

The softer side of the market is demand. Export movement has been running well below last season, which tells us that lower prices have not yet pulled buyers back in aggressively.

That keeps pressure on sellers to stay realistic, especially if early crop expectations continue to hold. Still, this is not a simple bearish call. Adequate supply and slow demand can create room for measured buying, but they do not remove the risks that can change sentiment quickly once harvest, policy and quality signals become clearer.

⚠️ The watch points are policy, weather, quality and Q4 coverage

  • TMO support price can reset seller psychology, especially if it comes in at a level that encourages farmers to hold material back.
  • Summer weather remains important until the crop is safely through the final stretch.
  • Stink bug pressure needs monitoring because quality can matter as much as volume when buyers start approving new-season lots.
  • Q4 coverage — If buyers have stayed too light and try to rebuild positions at the same time, the market can tighten in feel even without a supply shortage.

🎯 BUYER DECISION

For now, a measured procurement stance makes the most sense.
Cover nearby requirements where you need execution certainty, but avoid treating July as the last safe window to buy everything.
Keep room for new-crop offers, and set clear triggers before the market gives them to you: the TMO announcement, weather into harvest, early quality feedback, and how much Q4 demand comes forward.
In practical terms, this is a market for layered coverage rather than an all-in delay or an all-in extension.

Cardassilaris Family — nuts, dried fruit & seeds

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.

Constantinos Cardassilaris