2026/27 Prune Outlook: 211,580 MT Crop but Large Counts Remain Premium

Prunes Market Report 2026/27: Supply Tight, Large Sizes Still the Fight

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, dried-prune basis unless I flag otherwise. Data as of 2026-06-10 — full sourcing in the Source Notes at the end.

🎯 The 30-second version

World 2026/27 prune production is pencilled at 211,580 MT, but the market is still tight where buyers actually care: large, clean, pitted fruit.

If you're booking EU retail, bakery, paste, or Japan-style premium programs, this matters. Three minutes here should save you from comparing the wrong origin, size count, or duty basis.

▲ WORLD CROP 211,580 MT INC Congress May 2026 preliminary 2026/27 production read. More crop, still selective.	▼ ENDING STOCK 68,500 MT INC Congress May 2026 preliminary 2026/27 ending-stock projection. Buffer gets thinner.
CHILE EXPORTS 84,677.7 MT Calendar 2024 HS 081320 customs-weight exports. Chile sets the tone.	SIZE RISK 75 count/lb Public Chile 2025/26 size indication for average crop profile. Large fruit stays bid.

📋 What's actually happening

INC Congress May 2026 data shows world prune production moving from 207,560 MT in 2025/26 to a preliminary 211,580 MT in 2026/27. That's not a shortage headline. The catch is ending stocks are pencilled lower, from 76,850 MT to 68,500 MT, so the cushion shrinks even with a bigger crop.

USDA's California data says the 2025 crop finished at 73,500 dry tons on a short-ton basis, from 35,000 harvested acres and 2.1 dry tons per acre. Earlier California Prune Board pre-season guidance had been around 59,000 MT, so the final crop looked better than the first public expectation. That helps supply, but it doesn't automatically solve size, pitting yield, or premium-spec availability.

Here's the thing: sources disagree on the 2025/26 global number. INC Congress May 2026 has world production at 207,560 MT, while Sunsweet publicly put 2025/26 global production at 193,000 MT. That is a real gap. We're using INC as the main balance-sheet anchor here, but the mixed evidence means the global production line is medium-confidence until shipment pace and origin availability prove it.

Chile Prunes frames Chile as the leading exporter, and customs data backs that up: 84,677.7 MT shipped in calendar 2024 under HS 081320. But public 2025/26 Chile crop estimates also disagree: INC has Chile at 81,000 MT, while Produce Report cited roughly 75,000 MT and a smaller average size profile. So don't just ask, "Is Chile available?" Ask, "Which count, pitted or unpitted, and how much large fruit is actually left?"

Put it together: supply exists, but clean large-size coverage is still the bottleneck. That matters most if you're pricing retail pitted packs, industrial diced fruit, or bakery/paste contracts for Q3 and Q4.

🌍 The prunes supply picture

Looking at INC Congress May 2026's numbers, the world balance sheet is not screaming panic. It is screaming selectivity.

• 2025/26 opening stock: 78,420 MT.
• 2025/26 production: 207,560 MT.
• 2025/26 total supply: 285,980 MT.
• 2025/26 ending stock: 76,850 MT.
• 2026/27 opening stock: 76,850 MT.
• 2026/27 production, preliminary: 211,580 MT.
• 2026/27 total supply, preliminary: 288,430 MT.
• 2026/27 ending stock, preliminary: 68,500 MT.

Per INC Congress May 2026, implied 2025/26 world consumption is 209,130 MT. That's the important demand anchor. If consumption holds near that level while ending stocks step down, sellers have less reason to chase bids on the best sizes.

The conflict is worth saying plainly. Sunsweet's public spring update put 2025/26 global production at 193,000 MT, about 14,560 MT below INC's 2025/26 production line. The sources do not give us a clean same-method reconciliation, so we should treat the world crop total as lower-confidence than the origin customs data.

💡 WHAT IT MEANS Don't buy the headline crop number. Buy your spec. The market can be comfortable on total MT and still tight on 40/50, 50/60, clean pitted, low-defect, or organic-style programs.

🇺🇸 What's going on in California

California is not the largest exporter by volume anymore, but it still matters for premium programs, Japan, branded retail, and origin-sensitive buyers.

• 2025 pre-season estimate: about 65,000 short tons, or 59,000 MT, from the California Prune Board.
• 2025 final USDA result: 73,500 dry tons on a short-ton basis.
• Harvested area: 35,000 acres.
• Yield: 2.1 dry tons per acre.
• INC 2026/27 USA production, preliminary: 68,000 MT.
• INC 2026/27 USA ending stock, preliminary: 46,000 MT.

Water looks mixed, not disastrous. California DWR had statewide snowpack at only 18% of average in early spring, but the State Water Project allocation was later raised to 45% and Lake Oroville sat at 99% of capacity. For prune orchards, that means the immediate water panic is lower than the snowpack headline, but irrigation planning is still more complicated.

Federal CVP numbers also need timing, not drama. Reclamation moved south-of-Delta irrigation allocations to 20% in March, then 25% in May. So the two figures don't conflict; the later one is the current relief step.

Field-wise, UC-linked California commentary points to high fruit set and high heat accumulation. That usually puts thinning and sizing front and center. If growers thin aggressively, large sizes can be protected. If costs or timing limit thinning, buyers may see more fruit but not necessarily the sizes they want.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers — read this)

Quality is where this market can hurt you. Prunes are not just prunes. Size count per pound, pitted versus unpitted, moisture, tenderized versus natural condition, and defect tolerance change the real value.

Public Chile handler specs show common moisture bands of 26-34% for pitted and unpitted product, and 18-20% for natural-condition product. That matters because price comparisons without moisture and form are mostly noise.

Chile is the big watch. Produce Report cited an average 75 count/lb profile for the 2025/26 Chilean crop and also pointed to late rain during the final sun-drying stage in Colchagua. The sources support the conclusion that premium large sizes are tighter than total crop volume suggests.

France has a different quality equation. Agen prune guidance says harvest normally runs mid-August to mid-September, while drying takes 20-24 hours at 70-80 C. It also takes about 3-3.5 kg of fresh Prunes d'Ente to make 1 kg of dried prunes. So weather and energy costs matter twice: first for fruit sizing, then for drying economics.

⚠️ QUALITY ALERT If you're EU-bound, don't compare offers unless the count, moisture, pitted status, preservative position, and origin duty treatment are all lined up. A cheaper MT can become expensive fast if the yield or label position doesn't fit.

Practical takeaway: lock the spec before the price. If you need large pitted fruit, ask for count distribution and pit-defect tolerance first, then negotiate.

🌐 Where the prunes is coming from

Chile 2024 exports: 84,677.7 MT 2026/27 crop: 83,000 MT preliminary INC Driver: Largest export origin, but size profile is the pinch point.

🇺🇸 United States 2024 exports: 24,484.4 MT 2026/27 crop: 68,000 MT preliminary INC Driver: Premium demand, water noise, and thinning determine size.

France / Argentina 2024 exports: France 15,135.8 MT; Argentina 28,978.8 MT 2026/27 crop: France 32,000 MT; Argentina 15,000 MT preliminary INC Driver: France is weather-sensitive; Argentina is cheaper but down sharply in INC's projection.

Chile is still the price setter for a lot of international business. Chile's 2024 customs export value was 255.421 million USD, implying about 3,016 USD/MT. But origin unit values are not same-spec prices. They reflect mix, grade, moisture, pack, and destination.

The U.S. export unit value was about 4,705 USD/MT in 2024, France about 3,405 USD/MT, and Argentina about 1,415 USD/MT. That's a huge spread. It does not mean Argentina is the same product at a discount; it means the traded mix is different.

France is one to watch into harvest. Meteo-France reported the warmest spring on record with a +1.7 C anomaly, and April precipitation was nearly 70% below normal. Copernicus also flagged late-May heat anomalies above 10 C in western France. That supports a sizing and water-stress watch, not a confirmed crop-loss call.

📊 Who's buying what

Selected import-demand baselines, dried-prune MT; periods differ, so read this as scale, not a perfect ranking.

EU third-country	33,499 MT
China from Chile	~29,800 MT
Japan	5,637.66 MT
India	1,500 MT

💡 READING THE CHART EU and China are the big volume battlegrounds for Chilean-style supply. Japan is smaller but spec-sensitive. India is still small in MT, but ingredient demand is moving in the right direction.

China is the odd one this season. Mundus Agri had early 2026 Chile-to-China shipments down 63% to 978 MT in January-February, with Poland temporarily moving ahead in that window. The sources confirm the drop; they do not clearly prove whether it was price resistance, size availability, inventory, or timing.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

• 🇺🇸 California water: snowpack was weak at 18%, but reservoirs and state allocations improved the near-term picture. Still, DWR says the old April-July snowmelt pattern no longer holds, so water management remains a structural risk.
• Chile water: DGA reported national monitored reservoir storage at 4,927 million m3 during the harvest period, and Convento Viejo in O'Higgins was only 39% of capacity. San Fernando later showed a 42.6% precipitation deficit, which matters more for orchard recharge than the already-harvested crop.
• ENSO: NOAA put El Nino emergence at 82% for May-July and continuation through Northern Hemisphere winter at 96%. That keeps Southern Hemisphere water and heat risk on the screen for Chile and Argentina.
• 🇺🇸 US import duty: standard dried prunes under HTS 0813.20.20 carry a 14% general duty rate; brined-and-dried prunes sit under a different line at 2 cents/kg.
• 🇪🇺 EU duty: standard third-country duty for dried prunes under TARIC 0813 20 00 is 9.6%. Preferential origin paperwork matters.
• HS code: dried prunes sit under HS 081320. Don't mix this with puree, juice, or prepared fruit when you're comparing customs data.

✅ If I were you, I'd...

I wouldn't panic-buy the whole year. But I also wouldn't leave large-size pitted fruit to spot unless I had substitution flexibility.

✅ Separate size buckets: price 40/50, 50/60, 60/70 and 70/80 separately, not as generic prunes. ✅ Lock pitted specs early: pit defects and moisture change real usable yield. ✅ Use Chile for scale: but don't assume large fruit is easy just because Chile has volume. ✅ Keep California on premium programs: especially where origin story, Japan-style specs, or brand positioning matter. ✅ Watch France into August: heat and dry spring make sizing the key variable before Agen harvest. ✅ Check duty treatment: EU, UK, US and Japan landed costs can move the origin decision.

For buyers, the practical move is to cover your must-have sizes sooner rather than wait for generic crop comfort. For sellers, don't oversell total availability if your remaining stock is skewed small or needs extra sorting.

💬 Looking for something specific? Just hit reply — tell me what tonnage you need and when, and I'll come back to you with origins that fit your specs. Or copy-paste one of these: → "Send me Chilean 70/80 pitted options" → "I need EU-bound prunes for Q4 packing" → "Compare California vs Chile landed cost" → Reply to this email

Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

🔗 Source Notes

Every figure above, with its exact date and link, consolidated here for compliance.

1. INC Congress May 2026 — world and origin prune balance sheets for 2025/26 and preliminary 2026/27 — as of 2026-06-10 — Tier 0 / INC Congress May 2026, no public link
2. California Prune Board — 2025 California pre-season crop estimate of 65,000 short tons / 59,000 MT — as of 2025-07-14
3. USDA NASS Quick Stats — finalized 2025 California prune acreage, yield and production — as of 2026-06-09 — https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=California&year=2025
4. Chile Prunes — Chile industry scale, export leadership and 2026 price tone — as of 2026-05-21
5. World Bank WITS / Comtrade Chile HS 081320 — Chile 2024 dried-prune exports, value, volume and destinations — as of 2026-06-10 — https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/CHL/year/2024/tradeflow/Exports/partner/ALL/product/081320
6. World Bank WITS / Comtrade USA HS 081320 — United States 2024 dried-prune exports and implied unit value — as of 2026-06-10 — https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/USA/year/2024/tradeflow/Exports/partner/ALL/product/081320
7. World Bank WITS / Comtrade France HS 081320 — France 2024 dried-prune exports and implied unit value — as of 2026-06-10 — https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/FRA/year/2024/tradeflow/Exports/partner/ALL/product/081320
8. World Bank WITS / Comtrade Argentina HS 081320 — Argentina 2024 dried-prune exports and implied unit value — as of 2026-06-10 — https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ARG/year/2024/tradeflow/Exports/partner/ALL/product/081320
9. Sunsweet Growers / PR Newswire — public 2025/26 global prune production estimate of 193,000 MT — as of 2026-03-24 — https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-prune-crop-and-market-update-spring-2026-302722689.html
10. Produce Report — Chile 2025/26 crop estimate, 75 count/lb size profile and large-size tightness — as of 2026-06-01
11. Mundus Agri — June 2026 Chilean Ashlock 70/80 price indication and China early-season shipment commentary — as of 2026-06-03 — https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/prunes-smaller-fruit-sizes.n37334.html
12. Commodity Board — late-April and mid-May European Chilean prune price indications — as of 2026-05-12
13. Sun Prunes Chile — public commercial forms and moisture specifications for pitted, unpitted and natural-condition prunes — as of 2026-06-09
14. Pruneau.fr — Agen harvest window, drying parameters and fresh-to-dried conversion — as of 2026-06-10 — https://www.pruneau.fr/un-fruit-simplement-seche/
15. California DWR April Snow Survey — statewide California snowpack at 18% of average — as of 2026-04-01 — https://water.ca.gov/News/News-Releases/2026/Apr-2026/Record-Hot-Dry-March-Wipes-Out-California-Snowpack-Leaving-No-Measurable-Snow-for-April-Survey
16. California DWR SWP Allocation — 45% State Water Project allocation and Lake Oroville at 99% of capacity — as of 2026-05-15 — https://water.ca.gov/News/News-Releases/2026/May-2026/State-Water-Project-Allocation-Increases-Heading-into-Summer-Months
17. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation CVP March Update — south-of-Delta CVP allocation raised to 20% — as of 2026-03-24news-release/5305
18. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation CVP May Update — south-of-Delta CVP allocation raised to 25% — as of 2026-05-19
19. UC ANR / Growing the Valley — 2026 California prune fruit set, heat accumulation and thinning context — as of 2026-04-29 — https://www.growingthevalleypodcast.com/podcastfeed/prunefruitset26
20. Chile DGA Hydrometeorological Bulletin February — Chile reservoir storage and Convento Viejo capacity — as of 2026-02-23 — https://dga.mop.gob.cl/uploads/sites/13/2026/01/2026-02-23-Boletin-hidrometeorologico.pdf
21. Chile DGA Hydrometeorological Bulletin June — San Fernando precipitation deficit in O'Higgins — as of 2026-06-08 — https://dga.mop.gob.cl/uploads/sites/13/2026/01/2026-06-08_Boletin-hidrometeorologico-1.pdf
22. Meteo-France Spring 2026 Climate Review — France warmest spring on record and +1.7 C anomaly — as of 2026-06-02 — https://meteofrance.com/presse/bilan-climatique-printemps-2026
23. Meteo-France April 2026 Climate Review — France April precipitation nearly 70% below normal — as of 2026-05-04 — https://meteofrance.com/presse/bilan-climatique-avril-2026-chaud-sec-et-ensoleille
24. Copernicus May 2026 Climate Bulletin — western France late-May heat anomaly above 10 C and dry western/central Europe conditions — as of 2026-06-10 — https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-bulletin
25. NOAA CPC ENSO Discussion — El Nino probabilities for May-July 2026 and winter 2026/27 continuation — as of 2026-05-14 — https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_may2026/ensodisc.pdf
26. UNCTAD HS Classification / WITS HS 081320 — dried prunes classification under HS 081320 — as of 2025-04-14 — https://unctadstat.unctad.org/EN/Classifications/DimFoodCategories_HS92_Hierarchy.pdf
27. USITC HTS — U.S. dried-prune HTS lines and duty treatment — as of 2026-05-28 — https://hts.usitc.gov/search?query=0813.40.20.60
28. EU TARIC / Eur-Lex — EU 2026 third-country duty for dried prunes under TARIC 0813 20 00 — as of 2025-10-31 — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg_impl/2025/1926/oj
29. Mundus Agri EU Imports — EU third-country prune import volume and Chile supplier share — as of 2025-11-26
30. California Prune Board Statistical Report — Japan prune import share context for U.S. origin — as of 2024-10-30
31. IndexBox India Dried Prune Market — India 2024 dried-prune import volume and growth — as of 2025-02-15

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.