Raisin Market Report 2026/27: Global Supply Jumps 22%

Raisin Market Report 2026/27: Global Supply Jumps 22%

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, raisin product weight unless I flag otherwise. Data as of 2026-07-03 — full sourcing in the Source Notes at the end.

🎯 The 30-second version

World raisin/sultana/currant production is pencilled at 1,435,150 MT for 2026/27, up 22%. That is the market-moving number.

If you buy bakery, cereal, snack or industrial raisins into Q4 and Q1, this matters now. More global supply is coming, but the cheapest headline origin may not be the easiest landed spec.

▲ WORLD PRODUCTION 1,435,150 MT Preliminary 2026/27 dried grape crop estimate, up from 1,176,160 MT. More supply changes leverage.	▲ TURKEY CROP 290,000 MT Preliminary 2026/27 estimate versus 164,000 MT last crop. Turkey is back in play.
▲ WORLD SUPPLY 1,560,100 MT Preliminary 2026/27 total supply after opening stocks. Spot pressure can build.	▲ UZBEK EXPORTS 113,100 MT Calendar 2025 dried grape exports, with 38,200 MT shipped in Jan-Apr 2026. Alternative flow is real.

📋 What's actually happening

For buyers, the big call is not whether raisins exist. They will. The call is whether you stay locked to one origin too early, or use this bigger crop year to widen the approved list before the market starts sorting quality.

INC Congress May 2026 data shows the preliminary world raisin/sultana/currant crop rising to about 1.44M MT. The clean headline is plus 22%. The commercial meaning is simple: more sellers will need export homes, so spot markets should feel more offer-led once new crop confidence improves.

Here's the thing. This is not only a weather-recovery story. Turkey is the big swing, yes. But India and Iran are also pencilled higher, and Uzbekistan's broader dried-grape classification adds visible tonnage to the world line. That matters because buyers comparing Turkey, Uzbekistan, China and South Africa will see more choices on paper, even if specs do not all substitute cleanly.

Turkey's 2025/26 seedless raisin exports were running lower through May. That keeps old-crop tone under pressure because slower shipment pace leaves sellers more sensitive to timing. But new-crop forward pricing is not automatically collapsing because early-season supply still has to clear drying, colour, moisture and residue checks.

Put it together: bigger crop means better buyer leverage, not a free pass. That matters most if your contract needs fixed colour, organic paperwork, EU residue comfort or clean industrial performance.

BUYER DECISION (our read) Cover / tighten checks if: EU-bound lots · organic programmes · fixed colour, size or moisture specs Wait / widen origins if: flexible industrial use · multiple origins approved · grade switching is possible Main risk: landing the wrong spec cheaply, then paying for delays, rework or replacement

🌍 The raisin supply picture

The buyer opportunity is coming from balance-sheet expansion. The buyer trap is assuming all that new tonnage is identical. Raisins move by origin, grade, colour, moisture and documentation, not just by world crop number.

Looking at INC Congress May 2026's numbers, the preliminary 2026/27 dried grape balance looks like this:

• Opening stock: 124,950 MT. That is not a huge cushion against a crop-year shock.
• Production: 1,435,150 MT. This is the headline jump and the main reason buyers get more negotiating room.
• Total supply: 1,560,100 MT. More availability should make sellers work harder for export demand.
• Ending stock: 154,000 MT. Stocks rebuild on paper, which reduces panic risk later in the season.

The mechanism is worth knowing. Raisins are not a single pool. A Turkish Type 9 sultana, a Chinese green raisin, a South African golden, and an Uzbek black raisin can all sit inside the broader dried-grape world, but they don't always replace each other in a bakery formula or retail bag. That is why a rising world crop can pressure the average market while tightness still shows up in the exact spec you need.

💡 WHAT IT MEANS Use the bigger crop year to qualify options before harvest pressure arrives. If your spec is flexible, keep origins competing. If your spec is strict, don't wait for the cheapest quote to find out the lot cannot ship cleanly.

🇹🇷 What's going on in Turkey

For most buyers, Turkey is still the origin that sets the mood. A big Turkish recovery gives the market its loosening story, but it also raises the importance of drying weather and field-to-factory sorting.

• Preliminary 2026/27 production: 290,000 MT, versus 164,000 MT last crop.
• Preliminary 2026/27 total supply: 300,000 MT, after low opening stock.
• 2025/26 export pace: 104,442 MT through May, down 14% year on year.
• Commercial read: old-crop spot tone stays pressured because export pace lagged, while new-crop offers need quality confirmation before buyers can treat the crop as fully available.

That combination is why price direction is softer on nearby availability because the bigger crop is coming and exports lagged, so flexible buyers can keep options open. For fixed specs, replacement costs can still hold up because the final usable pool depends on drying, colour, moisture and residue performance, so don't confuse crop size with approved supply.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers — read this)

If you're EU-bound, the supply jump does not remove the quality job. It makes the quality job more important. When sellers have more tonnage, the spread between clean, well-documented lots and problem lots can widen fast.

The key watchpoints are the usual raisin ones: OTA, pesticide residues, moisture, mould, foreign matter, insect damage, sulphur declaration for golden product, and organic traceability where applicable. Bigger crops can mean more lots to choose from, but also more variability if drying weather turns messy.

Practical point: don't treat origin approval as the same thing as lot approval. You still want current crop COA discipline, pesticide screens aligned with destination, and lot traceability tied to the exact shipment. For organic, paperwork timing matters because a cheap physical offer is useless if the documents do not line up.

Practical takeaway: bigger supply should help procurement, but only if you separate price discovery from compliance approval. Run both tracks early.

🌐 Where the raisins are coming from

Origin choice is where buyers can create value this season. Turkey gives scale. Uzbekistan gives active alternative flow. South Africa gives strong recent delivery performance and useful quality options. China is still important too, especially where green raisin demand fits the product.

🇹🇷 Turkey 2026/27 crop: 290,000 MT preliminary 2026/27 supply: 300,000 MT preliminary Driver: Recovery crop resets export competition.

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 2025 exports: 113,100 MT Jan-Apr 2026: 38,200 MT Driver: Reclassified dried-grape flow is now visible.

🇿🇦 South Africa 2025/26 deliveries: 98,845.97 MT Versus average: 17% higher than 3-year average Driver: Strong intake supports export availability.

Turkey is the main lever because the crop recovery is large enough to change seller psychology. If Turkish drying is clean, buyers get more leverage. If drying gets messy, the market will split quickly between compliant and discounted lots.

Uzbekistan matters because the export flow is no longer small background noise. The catch: classification is doing part of the work in the world balance, so buyers need to be specific about raisin type, colour and destination rules.

Raisins SA shows South African producer deliveries at nearly 98,846 MT. That is strong availability, and it gives buyers another serious origin to compare against Turkey and Uzbekistan where the spec fits.

USDA's China read also matters. Low fresh grape returns pushed more Thompson Seedless into raisin drying, and the processing mix shifted toward more sultanas. That gives buyers another supply channel, but again the product style has to fit the use.

📊 Who's buying what

Demand is not the problem in the same way supply is the story. The bigger issue is which buyers can switch origin, grade or colour without upsetting their factory, retailer or customs file.

Commercial read only: this is our suitability/risk view by buyer type, not a measured market-share chart.

Industrial-ingredient fit	High
Retail-snack sensitivity	High
Organic-paperwork risk	High
Origin-switch flexibility	Medium

Reading the chart: industrial buyers usually have the best room to use a looser market, because they can sometimes flex grade or origin. Retail and organic buyers need earlier paperwork and spec control, because switching late is harder.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

These are not the headline story, but they can change landed cost and execution.

• 🇪🇺 EU-bound cargo: keep OTA, residue and sulphite checks front-loaded. A bigger crop does not help if the lot fails the destination screen.
• 🇹🇷 Turkey policy risk: potential state buying can put a floor under grower expectations, so downside in compliant new-crop material may be less than the crop headline suggests.
• 🇺🇸 US route: tariff treatment into the EU has improved for eligible US dried grapes, which can change landed comparisons where the spec works.
• 🇿🇦 South Africa logistics: strong crop intake is useful, but port performance and inland routing still matter for timing.
• 🌐 Freight: container disruption keeps baseline logistics risk in the landed calculation, especially for buyers running tight factory windows.

Buyer takeaways

The practical planning view is simple. Use the supply expansion to widen origin choice, but don't let a cheaper market make you lazy on lot approval.

✅ Separate flexible from fixed specs: flexible industrial demand can wait longer than retail-grade or organic demand. ✅ Pre-approve more than one origin: Turkey, Uzbekistan, South Africa and China won't all fit every use, but optionality has value. ✅ Ask for crop-year documentation early: COA, residue screen, lot traceability and organic papers should move before shipment pressure starts. ✅ Watch Turkey drying: a big crop only becomes buyer leverage if the quality sorts cleanly. ✅ Keep landed cost, not FOB, as the comparison: freight, duty route, documents and rejection risk decide the real result. ✅ Use spot weakness carefully: nearby pressure is useful, but don't cover mission-critical specs from distressed lots without checks.

Bottom line: the practical move is to build origin optionality sooner rather than chase the last discount after the best compliant lots are spoken for.

💬 Want to go deeper? If useful, reply and I'll help narrow the right origin and spec for your needs. → Reply to this email

Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

📑 Customs classification — for your broker

Customs classification — confirm with your customs broker:

• EU: US dried sultanas — CN 0806 20 30; other US dried grapes — CN 0806 20 90; duty route noted in Source Notes.
• China import: South African raisins referenced under HS 08062000 in the China tariff source pack.
• India export compliance: raisins referenced under HS 08062010 in the APEDA GrapeNet source pack.

🔗 Source Notes

Every figure above, with its exact date and link, consolidated here for compliance.

Market & demand

1. INC Congress May 2026 — preliminary 2026/27 world raisin/sultana/currant balance, including production, supply, stocks and origin split — as of 2026-05-28 — Tier 0 / INC Congress May 2026, no public link
2. Industry Research — organic raisins' role inside the organic dried fruit market — as of 2026-04-08 — https://www.industryresearch.co/
3. Intel Market Research — organic share context for US raisin production — as of 2025-10-02 — https://www.intelmarketresearch.com/united-states-raisins-market-10790
4. Drewry World Container Index — Asia-Europe freight pressure and Shanghai-Rotterdam container rate context — as of 2026-07-02 — https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry
5. Splash247 — container spot-rate pressure on Asia-Europe routes — as of 2026-07-03 — https://splash247.com/container-spot-rates-hit-four-year-highs/
6. SUAID Global — Cape of Good Hope diversions and extra transit-time pressure — as of 2026-04-05 — https://suaidglobal.com/insights/red-sea-shipping-crisis-2026/
7. BISI / UN Trade and Development context — Cape routing disruption and added shipping time — as of 2026-04-27 — https://bisi.org.uk/reports/red-sea-disruption-real-cost-to-african-trade-in-2026
8. Journal of Commerce — Asian port congestion and Shanghai waiting-time context — as of 2026-07-02 — https://www.joc.com/article/asia-port-congestion-worsens-amid-bad-weather-vessel-bunching-6247280

Origin & availability 9. Ekonomim — Turkey 2025/26 seedless raisin export pace through May and year-on-year decline — as of 2026-06-03 — https://www.ekonomim.com/sehirler/kuru-uzum-ihracatinda-rekolte-artisiyla-pazarlarin-geri-kazanilmasi-bekleniyor-haberi-897633 10. Invexi — Uzbekistan 2025 dried grape export volume and value — as of 2026-01-21 — https://invexi.org/press/uzbekistan-s-foreign-trade-turnover-results-for-2025/ 11. UzDaily — Uzbekistan dried grape exports for January-April 2026 — as of 2026-05-26 — https://www.uzdaily.uz/en/uzbekistans-fruit-and-vegetable-exports-grow-95-in-january-april-2026/ 12. Raisins SA — South Africa producer deliveries and comparison with the 3-year average — as of 2026-06-12 — https://raisinsa.co.za/ 13. USDA FAS China Raisins Annual — China raisin drying shift, Thompson Seedless diversion and South African tariff baseline context — as of 2026-01-07 — https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Raisins%20Annual_Beijing_China%20-%20People%27s%20Republic%20of_CH2025-0248.pdf 14. Mundus Agri — China processing mix shift toward more sultanas — as of 2025-12-10 — https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/sultanas-global-production-10.n36210.html 15. Raisins SA Week 23 intake report — final South Africa 2025/26 crop intake figure — as of 2026-06-11 — https://raisinsa.co.za/storage/uploads/58f52923-3287-42a0-a1ff-9c61b94b4964/Raisins-SA_Weekly-Volume-Intake_Week-23.pdf 16. Raisin Administrative Committee — California raisin deliveries to handlers for the 2025 crop year — as of 2026-05-27 — https://www.raisins.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Acquisitions-Report-WE-5-23-26.pdf 17. USDA AMS — California raisin marketing order structural changes — as of 2026-04-03 — https://www.ams.usda.gov/content/usda-announces-results-referendum-california-raisin-marketing-order 18. Chilealimentos — Chile 2025 raisin export value and volume context — as of 2026-02-06 — https://chilealimentos.com/pasas-chile-exportaciones-totales-siguen-recuperandose-y-totalizaron-us-176-millones-en-el-ano-2025/ 19. APEDA — India GrapeNet farm-level registration and residue compliance framework for grape and raisin exports — as of 2026-02-17 — https://apeda.gov.in 20. California Department of Water Resources — California reservoir and State Water Project allocation context — as of 2026-05-15 — https://water.ca.gov 21. Mundus Agri — Manisa vineyard condition, heat and protective covering context — as of 2026-06-30 — https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/sultanas-protective-measures-sargoel.n37485.html 22. APEDA grapes dashboard — China table grape acreage, Xinjiang water pressure and irrigation context — as of 2026-03-31 — https://apeda.gov.in/sites/default/files/2026-06/MIC_March_Monthly_dashboard_Grapes_290426.pdf 23. FreshFruitPortal — Chile late-summer rain impact on grape varieties — as of 2026-03-31 — https://www.freshfruitportal.com/news/2026/03/31/chile-table-grape-exports/ 24. Times of India — Maharashtra grape crop-loss context affecting Indian grape availability — as of 2026-02-03 — https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/pune/grape-harvest-begins-with-40-drop-in-output-in-state/articleshow/127869883.cms 25. Fruitnet — Iran agricultural and food export-ban context including raisins — as of 2026-03-04 — https://www.fruitnet.com/asiafruit/iran-stops-all-agri-food-exports/270793.article 26. Agbiz — Western Cape port inefficiency and export-routing context — as of 2026-05-25 — https://agbiz.co.za/content/open/25-may-2026-sa-agri-market-viewpoint-441 27. Commodity Board — Turkey farm-gate firmness and potential TMO procurement programme context without publishing price levels — as of 2026-06-17 — https://commodity-board.com/tight-raisin-supply-meets-rising-turkish-support-prices-window-for-buyers 28. Sektor Gazetesi — Turkish grower calls for early TMO support-price intervention — as of 2026-07-03 — https://www.sektorgazetesi.com.tr/binlerce-uzum-ureticisini-ilgilendiriyor-tmo-sezon-basinda-fiyat-aciklasin 29. Gaziantep Commodity Exchange — TMO old-crop packaged raisin wholesale reset before new crop — as of 2026-06-16 — https://www.gtb.org.tr/haber?id=4215&title=tmodan-cekirdeksiz-kuru-uzum-toptan-satis-fiyati-duyurusu

Tariff & customs classification — for your broker 30. EUR-Lex Regulation 2025/1926 — EU dried grape MFN duty context and CN 0806 20 classification reference — as of 2025-09-22 — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2025/1926/oj 31. EUR-Lex Regulation 2026/1455 — EU 0% customs duty for eligible US dried sultanas CN 0806 20 30 and other dried grapes CN 0806 20 90 — as of 2026-06-25 — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32026R1455 32. SARS — China zero-tariff export scheme framework for South African exports — as of 2026-05-30 — https://www.sars.gov.za/media-release/sars-clarifies-implementation-of-chinas-zero-tariff-export-scheme/ 33. EUR-Lex Regulation 2023/915 consolidated text — EU OTA maximum level for dried vine fruits — as of 2025-01-01 — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A02023R0915-20250101 34. RASFF Notification 2026.4321 — EU OTA alert context for dried vine fruit compliance — as of 2026-05-18 — https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/rasff-window/screen/notification/2026.4321 35. RASFF Notification 2026.3552 — EU acetamiprid residue alert context for Turkish raisins — as of 2026-05-06 — https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/rasff-window/screen/notification/2026.3552 36. EUR-Lex Regulation 2026/876 — amended EU acetamiprid and potassium phosphonate residue rules — as of 2026-04-22 — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2026/876/oj

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.