CARDASSILARIS FAMILY / MARKET REPORTS
Explore our published analysis of crops, origins, availability and market conditions across nuts, dried fruit and seeds.
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Changing Turkish kernel condition, slower export movement and competing Chilean and Oregon supply are shaping the hazelnuts market. Quality-specific availability matters, while subdued overseas buying and alternative origins temper the scope for broader firming.
Rising imports reflect Türkiye’s processing and onward-export role, not stronger household demand. Softer domestic use and constrained U.S. and Iranian supply shape origin competition.
The November 2026 almond market combines a larger early selling pool in California with uneven demand across destinations. Stronger export activity contrasts with weaker domestic purchasing and softer European shipments, while a modestly growing global crop and lower forecast ending stocks shape the wider balance.
Iran enters the new season with a physical stock cushion, but carryover alone does not establish what is available for fresh export business. Export constraints, kernel demand and Türkiye’s re-export role intersect with active U.S. shipments and an expected smaller American crop.
A smaller California crop and stronger September exports are tightening the remaining U.S. stock position, while domestic shipments eased. Kernel-size fit, Iranian stock release and Türkiye’s processing trade shape origin competition and potential outlets.
Chile’s walnut export volumes and revenue are diverging, while destination demand varies and much of the crop is already committed. The note examines what changing origin availability and Turkish inventory mean for trade flows.
Ukraine’s walnut crop outlook points to greater near-term availability, but household production and processing remain central to lot consistency and export competitiveness.
Sri Lanka’s first-half dried coconut production recovery strengthened its supply position, but later weakness in the raw-coconut crop and limits on imported feedstock leave continued shipments dependent on access to nuts. New planting is a longer-term response.
September exports improved year on year but remained below usual seasonal levels, while buyer coverage and domestic activity stayed uneven. The October outlook tracks whether shipments, purchasing commitments and consumption broaden.
Almond sellers have more breathing room as trading improves, but higher inventory and an unsold pool remain important buyer considerations. The October outlook weighs stronger exports against weak domestic demand and harvest uncertainty.
Broader almond supply has increased, while smaller kernel sizing leaves large-kernel availability a distinct commercial question. See what the developing harvest picture means for buyers and sellers.
The Crop Year 2026 production estimate now sits at 600–800 million lbs . This remains an estimate rather than a final crop figure. Even so, it points to tighter availability and keeps our near-term view slightly bullish.
Macadamias are no longer giving buyers one clean market signal. Our market read is that high-quality whole kernels remain scarce enough to keep pricing firm . Lean carry-forward stock and early-season positioning are still lending support in the near term.
Northern Euboea dried fig pricing appears steady in the near term. Market indications place new-crop levels broadly alongside last season, with no significant increase currently evident . Buyers therefore have an opportunity to discuss coverage while familiar commercial conditions remain available.
China’s 2026 walnut harvest is underway, and fresh in-shell lots are now entering trade. Yet the first physical arrivals have not brought the softer opening some buyers associate with harvest. Our market read is stable to firm at this initial stage .
The 2026 global macadamia production forecast points to an increase of approximately 15% , taking output to nearly 393,000 metric tonnes on an in-shell-equivalent basis. This is a forecast rather than a final crop result, but it changes the starting point for procurement discussions.
Last crop year is a useful warning against letting one production estimate dictate procurement . An official estimate landed well above industry expectations, changing buyer assumptions and encouraging hand-to-mouth purchasing. Prices dropped sharply after the release.
Turkey’s TMO announcement now provides a firmer official reference point for hazelnuts. Current market indications, however, suggest that open-market transactions remain well below the procurement benchmark .
Malatya’s harvest moved quickly through the final stages. On 2026-07-14 , market participants said picking was in full swing across the plains, while nearly all growers had started drying. By 2026-08-25 , the harvest was reported almost complete. Only small quantities were still being collected at
Current field reports from Bulgaria point to encouraging prune development . Rainfall has been sufficient across most growing areas, while temperatures and sunshine have also been favorable.
Australia’s early climate model put the 2026 crop at 59,080 metric tonnes , in shell, measured at 3.5% moisture . The June harvest review cut that forecast to 56,888 tonnes on the same basis. Even so, output is expected to surpass the weather-hit 2025 total of 43,800 metric tonnes , also in shell
The California almond market remains firm with a modestly bullish bias , although conditions do not point to an unrestricted advance.
Turkish raisin exports are still running below the market’s historical potential , which continues to give buyers a relatively soft backdrop. Prices had already been easing as expectations for the incoming crop improved, making Turkish offers more competitive.
The immediate risk remains availability rather than a clear price breakout . On 12 June 2026 , Xinjiang old-crop supply was reported tight, with inventories being steadily cleared while demand from shelling plants and exporters stayed solid.
The latest June shipment figures make the timing question harder to ignore. Total US pistachio shipments rose 20.2% from last June, while exports increased 25.0% on the same basis.
Bulgarian prune crop development is encouraging, with the preliminary view pointing to better prospective quantity and quality . That improves the chances of stronger new-crop supply, but it does not settle the price question.
Initial field assessments for Greece’s 2026 currant crop point to production approximately 10% above the existing crop . That is a constructive signal for buyers beginning to plan new-crop requirements, but it is not yet secured supply .
Our China read is still soft. Business is slow, disruption affecting Middle East flows has dampened buying, and the volume of cargo sitting at destination ports is adding pressure.
The latest U.S. pistachio shipment data give domestic buyers two very different signals.
The buying signal is constructive rather than urgent . Dalian export indications were already moving gradually higher by mid-March 2026 , extending the firm tone seen from mid-February .
Vietnamese processors appear short of raw cashew nut coverage and are leaning more heavily on West African supply .
Our market read is that the earlier start to harvest is already pulling trading attention toward 2026-crop business .
Turkey is coming into July with a calmer new-crop tone. Crop development is reported as very positive, and growing conditions are being described as among the best seen in recent years.
Turkey is worth putting back on the bid list. The market tone has moved a long way down from earlier-season levels, and that changes the conversation for buyers who had stopped spending time on Turkish raisins because the numbers were too far away. This is not a call to assume Turkey is suddenly
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