Turkish Raisins Market 2025: Price Outlook, Supply Forecast & B2B Trade Insights
Turkish Sultanas and Raisins Market Report 2025: Navigating Supply Challenges and Price Volatility
Impact of Recent Frost Events on Turkish Raisin Prices
Price Surge Due to Limited Supply
In March and April 2025, severe frost events in Turkey drastically impacted raisin production. Increased demand coupled with reduced supply drove raw material prices sharply upward—from 85-90 TL/kg to approximately 120-125 TL/kg within weeks.
Current FOB Market Pricing (Izmir)
- Type 9 Sultanas: $3,550 – $3,650 USD per ton
This significant price elevation reflects current market uncertainty and constrained supply conditions.
Production and Export Trends
Export Volumes: Significant Decline
Export volumes declined by roughly 30% compared to the previous year. As of June 2025, Turkish sultana exports reached 130,784 tons, down from 186,919 tons in 2024.
2024 Crop Overview
- Estimated Total Production: 250,000 tons
- Exported Quantity: 96,000 tons
- Annual Domestic Consumption: 40,000-50,000 tons
- Carryover Stock: 40,000-50,000 tons
These figures illustrate ongoing tight supply conditions, necessitating strategic inventory planning and sourcing.
Projections for the 2025 Crop
Reduced Production Estimates Due to Frost
The frost damage significantly impacted production estimates, placing expected yields between 230,000-240,000 tons, assuming no further adverse conditions.
Quality and Pricing Outlook
- Quality: Good, contingent on favorable weather
- Pricing: Initial 2025 pricing anticipated at similar high levels (120-125 TL/kg, Type 7), influenced by TARİŞ announcements
- Price Reduction Timeline: Potential easing post-Christmas, contingent on export trends and competitor pricing dynamics
Strategic Insights for Buyers and Suppliers
Early Procurement
Secure contracts early to mitigate price volatility risks and guarantee supply availability.
Flexible Inventory Management
Maintain strategic inventory reserves to buffer against supply disruptions and market fluctuations.
Prioritize Quality Assurance
Work with trusted suppliers offering certified high-quality products for consistency and reliability.
Regular Market Monitoring
Stay informed with regular market updates, especially TARİŞ announcements, to enhance decision-making agility.
Conclusion
The Turkish sultanas and raisins market remains challenging in 2025, heavily influenced by climatic events and pricing pressures. Strategic planning and proactive market engagement are essential for managing risks and capitalizing on opportunities.
Cardassilaris Family leverages deep market insights and extensive networks to guide clients effectively through complex market conditions.
