Executive Summary: 2023 Overview of Turkish Sultanas Sector

The 2023 season for Turkish sultanas presented a landscape of price volatility and market adjustments. Early in the season, there was a notable upswing in raw material costs, which later entered a period of relative stability. This report encapsulates the key movements within the market, considering factors like crop volume, demand dynamics, environmental risks, and economic policies affecting operational costs.

Price Dynamics and Market Adjustments

  • Rapid Price Escalation: Initially, there was a swift ascent in raw material costs, moving from 40 TL/kg (USD 1.480/ton) to 60 TL/kg (USD 2.220/ton) within October, with premium grades peaking at USD 2.575 – 2.600/ton FOB.

  • Subsequent Stabilization: Following this peak, there was a modest reduction in prices, influenced by market corrections and exchange rate fluctuations, with premium grades adjusting to USD 2.450 – 2.500/ton FOB.

Crop Volume and Market Demand

  • Crop Size Uncertainty: The final determination of the crop size remains pending, which will be a decisive factor for future price directions. Despite a slight decline in demand, market stability has been largely maintained.

  • Price Fluctuation Factors: The potential for frost damage in the spring could catalyze another round of price adjustments. However, in the absence of such adverse conditions, a softening of prices is anticipated, contingent upon Turkey's export performance.

Governmental and Economic Influences

  • Turkish Grain Board (TMO) Strategy: The disposition of TMO's remaining stock of 8-10,000 tons of raw material is currently ambiguous.

  • Minimum Wage Hike Impact: The government's decision to elevate the minimum wage by 49% has consequentially inflated processing expenses by USD 30-40/ton, affecting the sector's cost structure.

Year-on-Year Comparative Data

  • Export and Price Comparison: The period witnessed a decrement in exports compared to the previous year, alongside an upward trend in average prices, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

Forward-Looking Statements

  • Estimated Market Quantities: Projections suggest a total crop yield within the range of 210-220,000 tons for 2023, with significant portions yet to enter the market, poised to influence future price movements and supply dynamics.

Strategic Insights for Market Participants

This comprehensive review highlights the Turkish sultana market's fluctuating nature, driven by a mix of climatic, economic, and policy-based factors. Market participants are advised to monitor these developments closely, especially regarding environmental risk factors and policy changes affecting cost structures.

Julia Manolakaki