2025/26 Raisin Outlook | B2B Supply & Pricing – Cardassilaris
Raisin Market Pulse · June 2025
A concise update from Cardassilaris Family on global raisin & sultana supply, pricing drivers and demand trends.
🔢 World Production Snapshot 2025/26
| Rank | Country | 2024/25 Prod. (t) | 2025/26* Prod. (t) | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkey | 226 239 | 220 000 | −2.8 % |
| 2 | Iran | 245 000 | 215 000 | −12.2 % |
| 3 | India | 245 000 | 180 000 | −26.5 % |
| 4 | USA | 174 000 | 176 901 | +1.7 % |
| 5 | China | 130 000 | 140 000 | +7.7 % |
| 6 | South Africa | 96 700 | 96 400 | −0.3 % |
| 7 | Chile | 60 000 | 63 000 | +5.0 % |
| 8 | Uzbekistan | 63 000 | 60 000 | −4.8 % |
| World | 1 332 314 | 1 260 501 | −5.4 % |
* 2025/26 = preliminary harvest estimates.
Total ending stocks forecast: 132 800 t (tight but adequate).
📈 Key Market Drivers 2025
- Climate shocks – April frost in Western Turkey removed ~110 k t from projections.
- Input-cost inflation – fertiliser, fuel & labour keep ex-origin prices elevated.
- Currency swings – weak TRY & ZAR partly offset local inflation; USD volatility adds import risk.
- Freight normalisation – container rates lower than 2022-23 highs yet above pre-Covid baseline.
- Trade-policy watch – potential tariff shifts (US/EU–Turkey, India duties) could redirect flows.
🌍 Regional Spotlights
🇹🇷 Turkey
- Production: 220 k t (-2.8 %).
- Context: third consecutive weather-hit harvest; exporters focusing on core EU/UK programmes.
🇿🇦 South Africa
- Production: steady ~96 k t; new vines target 7 t/ha vs legacy 5 t.
- Edge: six raisin styles gaining snack & bakery share in the EU.
🇺🇸 California, USA
- Acreage: falling, but dried-on-vine systems (3–6 t/acre) keep volume stable.
🇮🇳 India
70 % of crop consumed domestically; export availability volatile year-to-year.
🌐 Emerging Origins – Uzbekistan & Afghanistan
- Growing suppliers of sun-dried small-berry fruit; quality consistency still mixed.
🔮 Consumption Trends
| Trend | Implication for raisins | Buyer action |
|---|---|---|
| Convenience snacking | Demand in smoothies, protein bars, fruit-&-nut pouches | Secure ingredient-grade #9/#10 early |
| Clean-label & sustainability | Single-ingredient, no added sugar | Highlight claim on packs |
| Younger consumers | Seek functional, eco-friendly foods | Promote natural fibre, iron, low CO₂ |
| Food-safety scrutiny | Retailers want zero-defect, laser-sorted lots | Leverage Cardassilaris’ IFS Broker v3 |
🗺️ Outlook → H2 2025 & Beyond
- Supply-demand expected tight → prices sideways-to-firm into Q4.
- Long-term bullish: shrinking acreage vs rising healthy-snack demand.
- Watch-outs: tariffs, El Niño weather swings, freight geopolitics.
