Apricot Market Alert: Türkiye Frost Cuts Crop to 2,000t – What Buyers & Suppliers Must Know
Dried Apricot Market Outlook: Navigating the 2025/26 Supply Crisis
📊 Market Snapshot
| 🌱 Metric | 📅 2024/25 | 📅 2025/26 (Forecast) | 📈 Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇹🇷 Turkish Production | 107,517 t | ~2,000 t | 🔻 -98% |
| 📦 Turkish Carry-over | 50,000 t | ~1,000 t | 🔻 -98% |
| 🌍 Central Asian Output | 47,500 t | ~75,000 t | 🔺 +58% |
| 🏭 Global Ending Stocks | 56,000 t | ~3,000 t | 🔻 -95% |
❄️ Impact of the Turkish Frost Crisis
A severe frost in Malatya, Türkiye, has drastically reduced the 2025 apricot harvest. Production forecasts suggest as little as 2,000 tonnes compared to 107,517 tonnes last year. The frost damage was extensive, overwhelming growers' typical frost-mitigation methods.
📦 The Turkish Carry-over Situation
Turkish carry-over stocks, currently around 50,000 tonnes, will offer limited short-term relief but are forecasted to drop sharply to about 1,000 tonnes by the end of 2025/26 due to drastically reduced new crop availability.
✅ Strategic Insights:
- Prices expected to remain firm given rapidly declining stocks.
- Immediate sourcing strategies needed to secure adequate supply.
🌍 Central Asia: An Alternative Supply Source
Central Asian countries—Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan—are expected to significantly increase apricot production, making them viable supply alternatives.
🌟 Important Quality Differences:
- Appearance: Darker and varying sizes.
- Taste & Texture: Distinct from Turkish apricots.
- Sulphite Levels: Greater variability requiring rigorous compliance checks for EU imports.
🚧 Regulatory Changes at EU Borders
EU entry points, particularly Spain, have intensified toxin inspections (e.g., ochratoxin), creating additional compliance challenges for apricot imports.
🔎 Recommendations:
- Allocate extra time for lab tests and customs clearance.
- Ensure complete documentation for smoother border procedures.
🚢 Logistics & Shipping Delays
Geopolitical disruptions now regularly add 15–20 days to shipping times, significantly impacting deliveries scheduled for peak Ramadan periods in Southeast Asia.
🛳️ Logistics Advice:
- Book transportation at least 4 weeks earlier.
- Arrange additional storage and QC checks proactively.
💲 Price and Procurement Forecast
Prices will remain strong due to limited supply and cautious selling from Turkish growers.
| 📅 Timing | 💡 Pricing Expectations |
|---|---|
| Short-term (Q2/Q3) | Firm, limited room for negotiation |
| Pre-harvest (Q3/Q4) | Risk of significant price spikes |
| Central Asian FOBs | Currently lower than Turkish prices, but gap expected to narrow quickly |
💡 Consumer Trends and Product Innovations
Growing consumer interest in:
- Single-serve dried fruits
- Probiotic-enhanced apricots
- Flavored apricot products
- Sustainable packaging solutions
📅 Action Timeline for 2025
| ⏳ Timing | 🎯 Recommended Actions |
|---|---|
| Now (May-Jun) | ✔️ Secure Turkish carry-over stocks ✔️ Request samples from Central Asia |
| Jul-Aug | ✔️ Finalize quality specifications ✔️ Early logistics bookings |
| Sep-Nov | ✔️ Confirm storage & quality-control arrangements |
| Full Year | ✔️ Adapt packaging and marketing strategies |
🗨️ Need Expert Guidance?
The Cardassilaris Family, experts in dried fruits since 1862, can help you confidently navigate these market challenges.
