Almond Market Update May 2026: Export Demand Supports a Stable-to-Firm Market

Almond Market Update May 2026: Export Demand Supports a Stable-to-Firm Market

Published: 5 May 2026
Market focus: California almonds, export demand, crop-year shipments, acreage trends, Australia supply outlook and buyer positioning.

Executive Summary

The almond market is currently showing a stable-to-firm tone, supported mainly by stronger California export demand and improved March shipment performance.

The latest available Almond Board of California Position Report is the March 2026 report, covering the 2025/26 crop year period from 1 August 2025 to 31 March 2026.

The market is not yet in a confirmed shortage scenario. However, downside appears limited by stronger export demand, lower California bearing acreage and market attention on the upcoming 2026 California almond crop forecasts.

Verified Market Facts

According to the Almond Board of California March 2026 Position Report, California almond handlers shipped 257.99 million lbs in March 2026, up 16.5% from March 2025.

March 2026 export shipments reached 205.23 million lbs, up 21.0% year-on-year. Domestic shipments reached 52.76 million lbs, up 1.9% year-on-year.

Season-to-date total shipments for the 2025/26 crop year stood at approximately 1.776 billion lbs through March 2026, down 1.87% compared with the same period of the previous crop year.

Export shipments were up 2.99% year-on-year, while domestic shipments were down 15.92% year-on-year.

Total committed shipments stood at approximately 576.1 million lbs at the end of March 2026, slightly above the prior year.

California Acreage and Crop Outlook

The Almond Board of California reported that Land IQ’s 2026 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate showed California bearing almond acreage at 1,385,870 acres, compared with 1,401,097 acres in the 2025 final estimate.

This represents a decline of 15,227 bearing acres and marks the first reported drop in California bearing almond acreage since 1995.

Land IQ also estimated 47,588 acres of orchard removals.

This acreage data does not provide a production estimate by itself, but it is an important structural signal for the 2026/27 supply outlook.

Australia Supply Outlook

USDA/FAS Canberra forecasts Australia’s almond production for MY 2025/26 at 175,000 metric tons of almond kernel equivalent, compared with a revised estimate of 145,000 metric tons for MY 2024/25.

This suggests a stronger Australian production outlook, although quality, timing, export demand and destination markets remain important factors for global availability.

Market Interpretation

Based on verified shipment data and cross-checked market commentary, the almond market appears balanced but firmer than earlier in the crop year.

Export demand is absorbing supply better than expected, while the U.S. domestic market remains the weaker part of the demand picture on a year-to-date basis.

Buyers appear cautious but active. Many market participants are waiting for clearer 2026 crop information before making stronger forward commitments.

This creates a market environment where short-term coverage looks sensible, while aggressive long-term buying should be weighed against upcoming crop forecast information.

Bullish Factors

  • March 2026 California shipments were stronger than the same month last year.
  • Export shipments remain the main support factor for California almonds.
  • California bearing acreage declined for the first time since 1995.
  • Upcoming crop estimates may add risk premium if production expectations disappoint.
  • European, Indian, Middle Eastern and Asian demand remain commercially important outlets for California supply.

Bearish or Limiting Factors

  • U.S. domestic shipments remain down year-to-date despite the March improvement.
  • Total crop-year shipments are still slightly behind the previous season through March.
  • Buyers remain selective and many are avoiding heavy forward coverage before clearer crop forecast information.
  • A comfortable 2026 crop estimate could reduce upside pressure.
  • Australia is forecast to produce a larger crop in MY 2025/26, which may influence global availability depending on quality and demand flows.

Commercial View for Buyers

For buyers, the current almond market supports selective coverage rather than aggressive buying.

Nearby and summer requirements should be covered carefully, especially for key specifications where availability or quality may become more sensitive after new crop forecast information becomes available.

Buyers who remain completely uncovered may face higher risk if upcoming crop forecasts are below market expectations.

Commercial View for Suppliers

For suppliers, the strongest selling argument is export-driven demand resilience.

The combination of stronger March shipments, declining California bearing acreage and pre-forecast uncertainty supports a stable-to-firm pricing message.

Current Market Rating

Market tone: Stable-to-firm
Risk direction: Slightly bullish until clearer crop forecast information is available
Buyer strategy: Selective coverage for nearby and summer needs
Supplier strategy: Emphasize export demand, acreage decline and crop uncertainty

Source Validation

Numerical claims in this update are based on official sources or cross-checked against at least two independent market sources.

Primary sources used:

Market commentary cross-checks:

Disclaimer

This market update is prepared for informational purposes only, based on publicly available sources believed to be reliable at the time of publication. Market conditions, crop estimates, prices, supply availability and demand trends may change without notice. Key commercial decisions should be confirmed directly with official sources, suppliers, buyers and counterparties before execution.

Constantinos Cardassilaris