Pistachio Market Update May 2026: Strong Shipments Keep Market Firm

Pistachio Market Update May 2026: Strong Shipments Keep Market Firm

Published: 5 May 2026
Market focus: U.S. pistachios, global supply, export demand, kernel shipments, quality risks and buyer positioning.

Executive Summary

The pistachio market is currently showing a firm tone, supported by strong U.S. shipment activity, resilient export demand and tighter availability in selected product forms.

The latest public March 2026 shipment data shows that demand continues to absorb the large U.S. 2025/26 crop at a strong pace. At the same time, global supply remains sensitive to alternate-bearing cycles, origin-specific crop performance, geopolitical and logistical disruptions, and quality requirements.

For buyers, the market supports selective near-term coverage rather than staying fully uncovered. For suppliers, the strongest commercial message remains demand resilience, especially in export markets and kernel-related demand.

Verified Market Facts

According to market summaries citing the Administrative Committee for Pistachios March 2026 shipment report, U.S. pistachio shipments reached 102.4 million lbs in March 2026 on an in-shell-equivalent basis.

Crop-year-to-date shipments from September 2025 through March 2026 reached approximately 848.3 million lbs, up 21.1% year-on-year.

Export shipments led the increase, with crop-year-to-date export movement reported up 27.2% year-on-year, while domestic shipments were reported up 5.8% year-on-year.

Receipts remained around 1.59 billion lbs through March 2026, confirming a large U.S. crop base for the 2025/26 season.

Estimated marketable inventory reached approximately 648.9 million lbs, down 15.0% month-on-month, reflecting strong shipments, processing activity and inventory adjustments.

Global Supply Outlook

USDA/FAS forecasts global pistachio production for 2025/26 at approximately 1.1 million metric tons on an in-shell basis, down 8% from the previous season.

The same USDA/FAS outlook forecasts U.S. pistachio production at a record 713,000 metric tons for 2025/26, supported by the on-year of the alternate-bearing crop cycle.

Global pistachio exports are forecast at a record 683,000 metric tons, mainly supported by higher U.S. supply.

Industry Market Signals

Recent industry market commentary also supports the view that pistachio demand remains firm, with attention on export movement, Iranian supply constraints, currency and political uncertainty, and kernel availability.

February market commentary from ofi reported strong U.S. shipment movement and highlighted continued firmness in demand. Because the ofi update mainly refers to February data, it is used as supporting market commentary, while March ACP-derived shipment data remains the more current basis for this update.

Kernel Market and Product Form

Kernel movement remains commercially important.

Market sources citing ACP data reported kernel shipments through March at 75.3 million lbs gross kernel weight, equivalent to 167.3 million lbs in-shell.

This was reported as 11.1% higher year-on-year and 20.1% above March 2024 levels.

The kernel segment remains important for food manufacturers, industrial users, bakery applications, confectionery and ingredient buyers. Tightness in specific kernel forms can support pricing even when headline in-shell supply appears more comfortable.

Quality and Food-Safety Considerations

Pistachios remain a quality-sensitive product, especially for buyers importing into Europe and other regulated markets.

Aflatoxin control, sampling, laboratory analysis and documentation remain central to safe commercial execution. The Administrative Committee for Pistachios regulates pistachios produced in California, Arizona and New Mexico and sets standards including aflatoxin tolerance and mandatory inspection and certification.

For buyers, product quality, testing procedures and documentation should be treated as part of the commercial decision, not as an afterthought.

Market Interpretation

The market appears firm but not overheated.

Strong U.S. shipments show that demand is absorbing the large 2025/26 U.S. crop better than a purely bearish supply view would suggest. Export demand remains a key support factor.

At the same time, buyers should avoid assuming unlimited availability. Pistachios are affected by alternate-bearing patterns, origin-specific crop risks, quality requirements and product-form differences between in-shell, kernels, splits, diced and closed-shell material.

Bullish Factors

  • U.S. crop-year-to-date shipments remain strong.
  • Export demand is leading overall movement.
  • Kernel demand remains commercially relevant.
  • Global production is forecast lower despite a record U.S. crop.
  • Estimated marketable inventory declined month-on-month in March.
  • Quality-sensitive product forms may remain tighter than headline supply numbers suggest.
  • Supply from Iran and Turkey remains an important variable for global pricing sentiment.

Bearish or Limiting Factors

  • The U.S. crop base for 2025/26 is large.
  • A record U.S. production forecast may limit aggressive upside in some specifications.
  • Buyers may delay forward commitments if they expect more new-crop availability.
  • Product form matters: not all in-shell availability translates directly into kernel or diced product availability.
  • If export demand slows, the market could lose some of its current support.
  • Closed-shell and shelling stock availability may limit excessive upside in some kernel replacement values.

Commercial View for Buyers

For buyers, the current pistachio market supports selective coverage of near-term and confirmed requirements.

Buyers should avoid being fully uncovered for urgent needs, especially in kernels, diced pistachios, splits and food-manufacturing specifications.

For forward demand, buyers should compare U.S., Turkish and Iranian availability carefully, while paying close attention to quality documentation, aflatoxin testing, origin requirements and delivery terms.

Commercial View for Suppliers

For suppliers, the strongest selling arguments are strong U.S. shipment performance, export-led demand and product-form tightness in selected specifications.

Suppliers should avoid relying only on headline crop size as a bearish argument. Demand, quality, processing form and destination requirements remain equally important.

Current Market Rating

Market tone: Firm
Risk direction: Slightly bullish for selected specifications
Buyer strategy: Cover near-term needs and verify quality documentation
Supplier strategy: Emphasize demand resilience, product-form availability and quality assurance

Source Validation

Numerical claims in this update are based on official sources or cross-checked against at least two independent market sources.

Primary and official sources used:

Market commentary and cross-checks:

Disclaimer

This market update is prepared for informational purposes only, based on publicly available sources believed to be reliable at the time of publication. Market conditions, crop estimates, prices, supply availability, quality risks and demand trends may change without notice. Key commercial decisions should be confirmed directly with official sources, suppliers, buyers, laboratories and counterparties before execution.

Constantinos Cardassilaris