Almonds Market Outlook — July 2026: Early Harvest & Transition Risk

🌦 Earlier harvest brings new crop forward

Our market read is that the earlier start to harvest is already pulling trading attention toward 2026-crop business.

Initial expectations put the coming crop broadly in line with the previous one. That remains a preliminary view rather than a firm production call. There is no fresh numerical estimate, and another estimate is not currently expected.

That leaves buyers making decisions with limited additional crop-size guidance while supplier focus is shifting. A similar headline crop size would not, by itself, imply the same availability, quality mix or pricing. The practical change for now is timing: new-crop discussions are arriving sooner, before the production picture has become more certain.

📦 Tighter stocks meet transition pressure

Measured in million pounds, uncommitted inventory for crop year 2025 was 5.2% below the 2024 level.

That can reduce choice in current-crop material, particularly where a buyer needs a specific grade, size or shipment window. It may allow suitable lots to remain firm.

The transition creates a counterweight, however. Suppliers still carrying unsold stock may become more willing to place it as harvest approaches and commercial attention moves forward.

The result is not a market-wide discount or a simple signal that one crop should be preferred. Availability and seller motivation can differ by requirement, so selective opportunities may appear alongside firmness in harder-to-replace specifications.

🎯 Buyer Decision

Ask for current- and new-crop proposals on a comparable basis, including specification, shipment period and other commercial terms.
This makes it easier to judge whether a transition offer is genuinely useful rather than simply earlier.
For requirements where grade, size or timing leaves little room for substitution, securing appropriate coverage matters more than waiting for broader direction.
Where flexibility exists, splitting purchases between the two crops can reduce dependence on either a tightening old-crop position or an uncertain preliminary outlook.
With no further crop estimate presently anticipated, keeping both procurement routes open is more practical than delaying the whole program for information that may not arrive soon.