California Almond Market Trends 2025: Shipment Declines, Crop Surplus & Buyer Strategies

California Almond Market Insights: July 2025 Analysis & Forecasts

The California almond market stands at a critical juncture as we approach the conclusion of the 2024 crop year. With the 2025 harvest approaching, industry participants face heightened volatility, underscored by recent shipment data, crop forecasts, and pricing trends. Below, we offer a detailed breakdown covering the latest market facts, industry conclusions, strategic assumptions, and informed forecasts to help almond buyers and sellers navigate the months ahead.

Almond Market Facts: Shipments, Estimates & Pricing

  • June almond shipments: Approximately 186.7 million lbs, down 9% YoY. Year-to-date shipments currently total roughly 2.45 billion lbs, 2.5% behind last year.
  • Export vs. Domestic Demand:
    • Strong export activity noted, particularly in India and China—with Chinese demand reaching a three-year peak driven by favorable pricing.
    • Domestic demand remains weak, notably impacted by the absence of the USDA almond purchase tender, typically representing 20–30 million lbs (around 5% of domestic consumption).
  • USDA Objective Estimate (July 2025) forecasted a notably high 3.0 billion lbs crop, exceeding earlier grower surveys (2.8 billion lbs) and industry expectations (2.6–2.9 billion lbs). This figure triggered an immediate overnight price correction of approximately $0.50/lb.
  • Nonpareil almonds, specifically estimated at 1.2 billion lbs (up from 1.1 billion lbs last year), face skepticism concerning actual orchard quality and yield potential.

Industry Conclusions: Navigating Market Uncertainty

  • The sudden USDA forecast significantly increased market uncertainty, causing many buyers and growers to hold back on new-crop commitments.
  • Domestic market weakness combined with uncertainty around government policy and tariffs places additional strain on forward sales, inventory management, and pricing strategies.
  • Despite initial shock, the recent price correction has positively stimulated export demand, suggesting potential market stabilization in the near term.

Strategic Market Assumptions: Buyer and Seller Behavior

  • Buyers are expected to remain cautious, continuing a "hand-to-mouth" approach amid market uncertainty and price volatility.
  • Growers may resist aggressive selling until actual yields validate or challenge current USDA estimates, potentially limiting immediate availability and creating tighter short-term supply scenarios.
  • Clarity around international trade policy is critical, as approximately 80% of California’s almonds depend on exports. Policy confirmations will significantly influence buyer commitments and market dynamics.

Market Forecasts: Price Trends & Opportunities

  • Short-term market volatility is expected to persist, with prices potentially stabilizing or modestly rebounding once clearer harvest yield data emerges in late summer to early fall.
  • Current price levels for varieties such as Nonpareil, Carmel, and Independence present attractive procurement opportunities ahead of major international consumption periods (Diwali, Chinese New Year, Ramadan).
  • Domestic market softness is likely to continue in the absence of government procurement support, reinforcing export incentives.
  • Should final crop yields trend closer to industry expectations (2.6–2.9 billion lbs), prices may see upward momentum by year-end, driven by tightened supply dynamics.

Strategic Recommendations for B2B Almond Industry Stakeholders

Growers:

  • Leverage current demand spikes proactively to mitigate downside price risks.
  • Avoid prolonged speculative holds; maintain flexibility to capitalize on confirmed yield data.

Buyers:

  • Utilize current favorable price levels to establish forward positions, reducing exposure to sudden market shifts.
  • Maintain strategic flexibility, awaiting clarity on trade policy and crop size confirmations.

All Industry Participants:

  • Adopt disciplined, proactive risk management strategies rather than speculative market timing.
  • Remain agile, ready to adjust procurement and sales tactics as harvest data provides clarity.

Navigating Forward: Almond Industry Outlook

The current market landscape offers both challenges and significant opportunities. By adopting informed, agile, and strategic approaches, California almond stakeholders can successfully navigate this volatile market environment, achieving stability and positioning for sustainable long-term growth.

Stay tuned for continuous almond market updates, strategic insights, and actionable B2B recommendations.

Constantinos Cardassilaris