China Walnuts 2025: Xinjiang & Yunnan B2B Crop Outlook

🌰 2025 China Walnut Market Outlook: Key B2B Insights for Global Buyers

Overview: Two Regions, Two Realities

As we move deeper into the 2025 season, China's walnut market presents a tale of two regions:

  • Xinjiang is grappling with adverse weather and lower yields
  • Yunnan is rebounding with better quality and stable volume

For importers, food processors, and bulk buyers, this means firm opening prices, quality variability, and regional supply advantages to strategically navigate.

🌀 Xinjiang-Origin Walnuts: Weather-Driven Tight Supply

2025 Outlook: Lower Yields Expected

  • Main Variety: Xingfu
  • Climate Impact: Severe sandstorms during pollination → reduced nut set
  • Additional Stress: Late spring frosts across northern walnut-growing zones

Market Note:

  • Yield shortfall is inevitable
  • Buyers should expect firm opening prices
  • Early contract booking is advised to avoid pricing spikes later in the season

🌿 Yunnan-Origin Walnuts: Quality Recovery, Stable Supply

2025 Yield & Quality Factors

  • Rainfall during flowering and leafing led to:
    • Fuller kernels
    • Better color
    • Fewer red-headed (defective) nuts

Comparison to 2024:

  • Last year had large volumes but suffered due to labor shortages
  • ~⅓ of crop was abandoned as ground fruit, reducing export quality
  • This year: Conditions have stabilized and overall quality is improved

🌳 185/Xin2 Walnuts: Better Fruit Set, Higher Availability

Variety Performance:

  • 2025 fruit set is significantly better than 2024
  • More nuts per tree means greater supply potential
  • 185/Xin2 will play a strong role in balancing the Chinese walnut market this year

👷 Labor Shortages: Ongoing Constraint in Yunnan

Despite positive agronomic developments, labor remains a bottleneck:

  • Fewer experienced harvesters
  • Ageing workforce in rural areas
  • Potential delays in harvesting could affect uniformity and quality

Tip for buyers: Confirm harvest timing and drying standards with your supplier.

📊 Strategic Takeaways for Buyers & Importers

  • Firm pricing expected, especially from Xinjiang-origin
  • Improved quality and stable volumes from Yunnan → ideal for EU/compliance-sensitive programs
  • 185/Xin2 provides a buffer, but labor issues still carry risks
  • Book early to secure availability and reduce cost exposure

🧭 Final Thoughts: Adapt and Act Early

For international walnut buyers and trading houses, 2025 is a year of calculated sourcing.
Understanding regional differences, varietal performance, and labor constraints will help you:

  • Optimize quality-to-price ratios
  • Avoid shipment delays
  • Maintain continuity in production and fulfillment

📞 Need Support With Chinese Walnut Sourcing?

Cardassilaris Family works directly with certified walnut growers across China, providing:

  • Verified crop offers
  • Origin-specific guidance
  • Quality checks & logistics coordination

📩 Contact us at trade@cardassilaris.gr to request availability, specifications, and samples.

Constantinos Cardassilaris