Currants Market Outlook 2026/27: Global Recovery Masks Greek Vostizza Tightness

Currants Market Report 2026/27: Greek Supply Tight, Freight Up

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, dried-grape currants unless I flag otherwise. Data as of 2026-06-12 — full sourcing in the Source Notes at the end.

🎯 The 30-second version

What buyers need first: treat Greek Vostizza/Zante currants as a separate sourcing job. If your spec requires Greek fruit, organic lines or low-ochratoxin lots, availability will be driven by origin intake timing, lab turnaround and packer decisions — not by the headline dried-grape pool.

The wider dried-grape recovery gives you substitution options for blends and generic needs, but it won’t instantly solve tightness for true Greek currants. Expect conditional offers and timing risk on prompt-quality lots.

~1.44M MT world dried-vine-fruit supply is pencilled for 2026/27. But Greek currants are still the tight bit.

▲ WORLD CROP
1,435,150 MT
Preliminary 2026/27 raisin, sultana and currant production read.
Bigger balance, not equal relief.
▲ GREEK 2026/27
17,000 MT
Preliminary first estimate for Greek currants — up ~6% vs INC's combined 2025/26 Greece dried-grape line; Zante-only reads were 10,000-12,000 MT, so the base is uncertain.
Summer weather decides it.
GREEK ORIGIN PRICING
Firm
Public sampled Greek RAISIN transactions ran firm into April;, so the market is offer-driven. treat public signals as market tone, not a buying basis.
Still not cheap.
▲ FREIGHT
5,139 USD/40ft
Shanghai-to-Genoa spot assessment. Freightos had Asia-Med around 5,500 USD/FEU.
Landed cost bite is real.

📋 What's actually happening

What this means for buyers: you now have a clearer choice set in the broader dried-grape pool, but Greek currants remain a specialty squeeze. If your product needs Greek Vostizza/Zante fruit, availability will be governed by early processing decisions and lab clearance — not the headline crop number.

The picture in plain terms: INC's Greece line for 2025/26 sits at 16,000 MT for raisins, sultanas and currants combined, while a narrower market read puts Zante currants at 10,000-12,000 MT because of climate impacts. An early 2026/27 read at 17,000 MT suggests modest recovery if summer cooperates, but packers still need time to sort quality and await lab results before releases appear in the prompt market.

Cardassilaris' congress read shows world raisins/sultanas/currants at 1,435,150 MT for 2026/27, up 22% year on year. Turkey is the main mover inside that balance — 290,000 MT after a frost-hit 165,000 MT in 2025/26 — which helps the broader supply picture but does not replace Greek-spec currants directly.

Bottom line: signals are mixed and headline totals blend different product scopes. For now, origin pricing remains firm and public transparency on true currants is thin. What to watch: first intakes, lab timetables and packer release windows — those will decide what is actually available for prompt shipment.

🌍 The currants supply picture

Buyers: think in two lanes. The headline dried-grape recovery broadens substitution options, but true currant sourcing is origin- and spec-driven. If your recipe or label requires Greek fruit, that is still the binding constraint.

Key reads we are working with

  • World raisins/sultanas/currants 2026/27: 1,435,150 MT, preliminary, up 22% year on year. That gives buyers more optionality in the wider dried-grape complex.
  • Greece 2025/26: INC shows 16,000 MT for the Greece line, while another market read says Greek Zante currants were 10,000-12,000 MT. That's the main confidence drag in this report.
  • Greece 2026/27: 17,000 MT, preliminary first estimate. Useful recovery if weather cooperates, but not a settled crop.
  • Turkey 2026/27: 290,000 MT dried vine fruit after 165,000 MT in 2025/26. That helps substitute pressure, especially for bakery blends, but it doesn't replace Greek currants one-for-one.
  • South Africa 2025/26: revised dried-vine-fruit crop at 86,500 MT after downy mildew and hail. Separate South African 2025 currant production was 3,964 MT.
  • Australia 2025: final Carina currant intake 2,205 MT, out of 18,556 MT total dried vine fruit intake per Dried Fruits Australia (INC's balance line shows 18,560 MT — a trivial metadata difference between the two sources). Small, but very relevant when Greek offers are thin.
💡 WHAT IT MEANS
If you're flexible on origin and berry size, the wider raisin/sultana recovery helps. If your label or recipe needs Greek currants, the market still trades on Greek weather, packer availability and lab results.

🌍 What's going on in Greece

Buyer takeaway: Greece still sets the commercial tone for currants, but most offers will be conditional until the first processor intakes and lab work are clear. Treat Greek bids as provisional and factor in timing risk.

Key Greek reads

  • 2025/26 Greece line: 16,000 MT in the INC balance table for raisins, sultanas and currants.
  • Greek Zante currant estimate: 10,000-12,000 MT in a separate UK ingredient market read. This is narrower product scope and lower volume.
  • 2026/27 Greek currants: 17,000 MT, preliminary first estimate.
  • Grower support: 348 EUR/hectare coupled support for Corinthian currants, with minimum delivery of 1.5 MT/hectare to processors.
  • Public pricing signal: sampled Greek raisin transactions ran firm through April. Treat that as direction from a public transaction sample, treat public signals as market tone, not a buying basis.
  • Organic availability reference: direct Greek organic black currant offers exist in 1 kg grower retail packs. That's retail/grower-pack basis, not bulk export basis — not a usable export price anchor.

That narrow Zante read is why the spot market feels tight even when the headline first estimate looks higher. Don't assume comfort just because 2026/27 is pencilled at 17,000 MT — summer weather, the first processor intakes and early lab results will determine usable volumes.

⚠️ EU BUYER ALERT
Greek supply may be tight, but don't loosen specs to solve prompt cover. Moisture and ochratoxin A discipline matter more when weather has been erratic and fruit is moving under pressure.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers — read this)

Why it matters: moisture control, drying discipline and ochratoxin A are the real gates for EU release. When fruit is moving quickly under weather pressure, labs and packers tighten enforcement and usable supply shrinks.

The practical buyer move is simple: demand crop-year declaration, size, moisture and ochratoxin A results early, and avoid booking tight shipments without lab clarity.

⚠️ EU BUYER ALERT
Greek supply may be tight, but don't loosen specs to solve prompt cover. Moisture and ochratoxin A discipline matter more when weather has been erratic and fruit is moving under pressure.

Practical takeaway: if you're buying for cereal, bakery inclusions or retail packs, ask early for crop-year declaration, origin, size, moisture, ochratoxin A result and pesticide screen. Don't wait until the truck is booked.

🌐 Where the currants are coming from

🇪🇺 Greece
2025/26 range:
10,000-16,000 MT depending on scope

2026/27 first estimate:
17,000 MT preliminary

Driver: Weather and quality sorting.
🇺🇸 United States
California Zante deliveries:
981.794 sweatbox tons

Organic Zante deliveries:
145.2285 sweatbox tons

Driver: Small specialty stream.
🇿🇦 South Africa / 🇦🇺 Australia
South Africa currants:
3,964 MT in 2025

Australia currants:
2,205 MT 2025 intake

Driver: Alternative origin cover.

Greece is still the commercial reference point. California's Zante stream is measurable but small — 981.794 sweatbox tons with 145.2285 sweatbox tons organic to May are useful for niche demand, not market-clearing volume.

Australia is worth watching as substitution, but timing and lab outcomes will decide usefulness: an early trade note reported good drying, yet Agriculture Victoria logged an early‑March deluge up to 150 mm, which disrupted access.

One more clean-up: Turkey matters to the wider dried-vine-fruit balance, not as a direct Greek-currant substitute. Some research threads on Malatya were noisy and not central to currants sourcing.

📊 Who's buying what

Buyers' takeaway: industrial users dominate EU demand, the UK is the main named destination in extra‑EU flows, and South African supply is a steady substitute. The old per-capita UK myths don't hold up — the figures say otherwise.

Current public demand indicators, dried-grape/currant shares where stated

EU industrial
 60-70%
EU retail
 30-40%
UK pull
 61.2%
South Africa into EU
 23.6%
💡 READING THE CHART
Industrial users matter most in Europe, and the UK remains the big named currant destination in EU extra-EU flow data. Also, don't repeat the old per-capita claim: CBI figures show the UK is not Europe's highest per-capita dried-grape consumer.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

These logistics, tariff and regulatory items affect landed cost and timing — factor them into sourcing. Freight momentum and port congestion are current buyer-side timing risks; add extra lead time and review documentation early.

  • Freight: Drewry had Shanghai-to-Genoa at 5,139 USD/40ft, while Freightos put Asia-to-Mediterranean around 5,500 USD/FEU. That matters if you're comparing Asian dried fruit substitutes against Mediterranean supply.
  • Freight momentum: Freightos had Asia-to-North-Europe up 37% week on week and Asia-to-Mediterranean up 24%. Rate direction is buyer-negative even before inland delays.
  • Port risk: Maersk flagged tight Rotterdam terminals, high yard use, reduced crane availability and longer barge/feeders waits. Build lead time into UK/EU landed plans.
  • Carrier surcharges: Maersk's Far East Asia-to-Europe PSS was 600 USD/40ft or 45ft. CMA CGM put Asia-to-North-Europe PSS at 500 USD/TEU.
  • 🇺🇸 US duty: HTS currants under 0806.20.10.10 carry 1.8 US cents/kg general duty, before any broader temporary surcharge impact.
  • 🇺🇸 US temporary surcharge: a 10% ad valorem temporary import surcharge applied from late February across covered imports, including HTS 0806 in the cited tariff read.
  • 🇪🇺 EU duty: CN 08062010 currants carry 2.4% third-country duty, with some preference routes at 0% when rules are met.
  • 🇪🇺 EU sanctions: TARIC references an additional 50% duty for products exported directly or indirectly from Russia or Belarus.
  • 🇨🇳 China tariff: USDA lists raisin/dried-grape HS 08062000 tariff at 35% for US origin and 10% for several no-FTA origins, with 9% VAT.
  • 🇪🇺 EUDR: dried grapes/currants under HS 080620 are outside the listed EUDR Annex I scope.
  • 🇺🇸 FSMA 204: FDA's Food Traceability List does not include dried fruits such as raisins and currants.
  • 🇬🇧 UK BTOM: dried fruits such as currants are low-risk or unregulated for plant health, but food safety controls still matter.

✅ If I were you, I'd...

Split the job: one workflow for generic dried-grape cover and a separate, spec-driven workflow for true currants. Treat Greek currants as a conditionally available origin and lock documentation and lab timing early.

✅ Split specs early: Greek currants, South African currants, Australian Carina and generic small raisins need separate coverage lines.
✅ Ask for lab timing: don't book tight-shipment EU material without ochratoxin A and moisture clarity.
✅ Keep substitutes live: if your recipe allows, compare South African currants and midget raisins against Greek offers.
✅ Watch Greek summer weather: the 17,000 MT first estimate needs a clean finish.
✅ Don't use bad price anchors: ignore the confused EUR-wholesale and China references for currants — neither reflects 2026 dried-currant export business.
✅ Book freight earlier: rate increases and Rotterdam congestion can wipe out a small origin-price win.
✅ For UK packs: keep documentation clean on origin, CN code and spec because the UK is still the key demand pull.

Bottom line: the practical move is to map Q3/Q4 currant needs sooner rather than assume the bigger world dried-grape crop will solve your exact spec.

💬 Looking for something specific?
Just hit reply — tell me what tonnage you need and when, and I'll come back to you with origins that fit your specs.
Or copy-paste one of these:
→ "Send me Greek currant options for Q3/Q4"
→ "Compare South African currants against Greek"
→ "I need organic currants with EU-ready labs"
→ Reply to this email

Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

🔗 Source Notes

Every figure above, with its exact date and link, consolidated here for compliance.

  1. EU TARIC and CN classification — currants under CN/TARIC 08062010/0806201000 and EU 2.4% duty — as of 2026-06-08 (link unavailable at publication check)
  2. CBI dried grapes market information — HS 080620 scope, CN split, European industrial demand split and per-capita context — as of 2026-05-29 — https://www.cbi.eu/sites/default/files/pdf/research/855.pdf
  3. INC Nutfruit March 2026 balance table — Greece 16,000 MT and Australia 18,560 MT 2025/26 dried-grape lines — as of 2026-03-01 (link unavailable at publication check)
  4. Cardassilaris INC Congress read — 2026/27 world production 1,435,150 MT and Turkey 290,000 MT preliminary read — as of 2026-05-28 — https://www.cardassilaris.com/news/raisins-market-report-2026-27-supply-demand-quality
  5. Mundus Agri Greek currant estimate — Greek 2026/27 preliminary first estimate of 17,000 MT — as of 2026-05-19 — https://www.mundus-agri.eu
  6. Community Foods market ingredients report — Greek Zante currant 10,000-12,000 MT market read and climate-pressure context — as of 2026-06-03 — https://www.communityfoods.co.uk/latest-news
  7. Tridge Greece raisin market overview — sampled Greek transactions ran firm into April; directional evidence only — as of 2026-04-22 — https://www.tridge.com/market-overview/raisins/GR
  8. Bio Family Farm Greek organic currants offer — 2025 production direct offer in 1 kg retail bags; organic availability/direction reference — as of 2026-06-12 — https://www.biofamilyfarm.gr/en/
  9. FAO dried fruit standard — dried fruit moisture preservation principle — as of 1981-01-01 — https://www.fao.org/input/download/standards/244/CXS_067e.pdf
  10. Raisin Administrative Committee acquisitions report — California 2025-crop Zante Currant seasonal and organic deliveries to May 2 — as of 2026-05-02 — https://www.raisins.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Acquisitions-WE-5-2-26.pdf
  11. Raisin Administrative Committee latest deliveries — California 2025-crop Zante Currant deliveries of 981.7940 sweatbox tons — as of 2026-06-03 — https://raisins.org
  12. Dried Fruits Australia crop intake report — Australian 2025 Carina currants 2,205 MT and total dried vine fruit intake 18,556 MT — as of 2025-12-04 — https://cdnc.heyzine.com/files/uploaded/v3/7f836b80623a3b729c383e0c529937308dcb8f5c.pdf
  13. Boesch Boden Spies / Sunbeam crop update — Australia 2026 crop forecast above 20,400 MT and early quality read — as of 2026-01-15 — https://www.boeschbodenspies.com/wp-content/uploads/Sunbeam-Foods-2026-Dried-Vine-Fruit-Crop-Update-15-Jan-2026-1.pdf
  14. Agriculture Victoria rain event report — early-March Australian deluge up to 150 mm and harvest disruption — as of 2026-03-20 (link unavailable at publication check)
  15. FreshFruitPortal South African raisin crop report — South Africa 2025/26 revised dried-vine-fruit crop of 86,500 MT — as of 2026-03-04 — https://www.freshfruitportal.com/news/2026/03/04/south-african-raisin/
  16. Redsun / Raisins SA delivery data — South Africa 2025 currant production of 3,964 MT — as of 2025-05-23 — https://redsun.co.za
  17. USDA FAS Chile raisin report — Chile 2025/26 raisin production forecast of 62,000 MT — as of 2025-08-15 — https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Raisin%20Production%20and%20Exports_Santiago_Chile_CI2025-0016.pdf
  18. US HTS 2026 — HTS 0806.20.10.10 currants and 1.8 US cents/kg general duty — as of 2026-05-28 — https://hts.usitc.gov/search?query=0806.20.10
  19. Federal Register Proclamation 11012 — temporary 10% ad valorem US import surcharge effective late February 2026 — as of 2026-02-25 — https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/html/2026/02/25/2026-03824.html
  20. USDA FAS China Raisins Annual — China HS 08062000 tariffs of 35% for US origin, 10% for listed no-FTA origins and 9% VAT — as of 2026-01-12 — https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Raisins+Annual_Beijing_China+-+People%27s+Republic+of_CH2025-0248.pdf
  21. Eurostat COMEXT via TheTradeHub — CN8 08062010 EU currant trade shares, UK 61.2% of listed extra-EU export value and South Africa 23.6% of listed extra-EU import value — as of 2026-03-31 — https://www.thetradehub.eu/en/customs/trade/08062010
  22. Drewry World Container Index — Shanghai-to-Genoa 5,139 USD/40ft and MSC FAK context — as of 2026-06-11 — https://www.drewry.co.uk/maritime-research-opinion-browser/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry
  23. Freightos weekly freight update — Asia-to-Mediterranean about 5,500 USD/FEU, Asia-North Europe up 37% and Asia-Med up 24% — as of 2026-06-12 — https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/weekly-freight-updates/ocean-rates-climbing-with-more-increases-expected-soon-june-9-2026-update/
  24. Maersk Europe market update and PSS notice — Rotterdam congestion and 600 USD/40ft or 45ft Far East Asia-to-Europe PSS — as of 2026-06-10 — https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/06/03/europe-market-update-june
  25. CMA CGM PSS notice — 500 USD/TEU Asia-to-North-Europe Peak Season Surcharge — as of 2026-06-01 (link unavailable at publication check)
  26. EU EUDR Regulation Annex I — HS 080620 not listed in EUDR Annex I — as of 2023-06-09 — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32023R1115
  27. FDA Food Traceability List — dried fruits including raisins and currants excluded from FTL — as of 2026-04-01 — https://www.fda.gov/food/food-safety-modernization-act-fsma/food-traceability-list
  28. DEFRA BTOM plant health risk categorisation — dried fruits low-risk or unregulated for plant health, no phytosanitary certificate in cited context — as of 2026-05-11 — https://planthealthportal.defra.gov.uk/trade/imports/target-operating-model-tom/btom-risk-categorisations/
  29. Greek OPEKEPE / Agroekfrasi support notices — 348 EUR/hectare coupled support and 1.5 MT/hectare delivery requirement — as of 2026-05-27 — https://www.agroekfrasi.gr/vgikan-ta-fek-ton-syndedemenon-enischyseon-fytikis-zoikis/

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.

Constantinos Cardassilaris