Raisins Market Report 2026/27: Bigger Crop, Still Quality-Sensitive

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, product-weight basis unless I flag otherwise. Data as of 2026-05-28 — full sourcing in the Source Notes at the end.

🎯 The 30-second version

World raisin/sultana/currant production is pencilled at 1,435,150 MT for 2026/27, up 22% year on year. Turkey is the swing factor.

If you are buying EU-bound, organic, premium colour, or US-compliant lots, this matters. Three minutes here will save you chasing cheap fruit that does not actually fit the spec.

▲ WORLD CROP
1,435,150 MT
2026/27 preliminary raisin/sultana/currant production.
Bigger, but not simple.
▲ TURKEY RECOVERY
290,000 MT
Turkey 2026/27 preliminary crop, versus 164,000 MT last season.
Main price anchor.
▼ CALIFORNIA DELIVERIES
202,791.8035
Sweatbox tons delivered to handlers for 2025 crop, below 210,390.0435 last season.
US is not flooding.
▲ EU DEMAND BASE
227,016 MT
EU dried-grape imports in calendar 2024, worth 605.183 million USD.
Europe still sets tone.

📋 What's actually happening

INC Congress May 2026 data shows a much larger 2026/27 world balance. Production is pencilled at 1,435,150 MT, against 1,176,160 MT in 2025/26. That is the big headline.

USDA is giving the Turkey context. Turkey produced about 3.5 million MT of grapes for all uses in MY 2024/25, with 27% going into raisin grapes and 9% into seeded raisins. So when Turkey has a better vine year, the dried-fruit market feels it fast.

RAC data says California is tighter in physical deliveries than last year. 2025-crop deliveries to handlers were 202,791.8035 sweatbox tons, versus 210,390.0435 at the same point last season. That does not scream surplus.

Commodity Board pricing also tells you the split. Standard Turkish sultanas were still around the low-to-mid EUR 2,000s per MT in early May, while organic type 9 sat around EUR 3,100 per MT. So yes, supply is rebuilding. No, premium and organic are not suddenly easy.

Put it together: the market is moving from panic-tight to origin-and-quality selective. That matters most if you buy fixed recipe specs, organic, EU residue-sensitive lots, or colour-critical snack packs.

🌍 The raisins supply picture

Looking at INC Congress May 2026's numbers, the 2026/27 world balance looks heavier, but not bearish in a lazy way. A chunk of the increase is a real Turkish recovery. A chunk also comes from India, Iran and classification changes around Uzbekistan.

Key 2026/27 preliminary balance sheet:

  • Opening stock: 124,950 MT.
  • Production: 1,435,150 MT.
  • Total supply: 1,560,100 MT.
  • Ending stock: 154,000 MT.
  • Turkey production: 290,000 MT, up from 164,000 MT.
  • China production: 200,000 MT.
  • India production: 200,000 MT.
  • Iran production: 200,000 MT.
  • USA production: 160,000 MT.
  • South Africa production: 96,000 MT.

What INC Congress May 2026 is telling us: the world is not short in the same way it was last season. But the extra tons are not all interchangeable. A bakery buyer, a cereal buyer, an organic buyer and a golden-raisin buyer are not shopping the same bin.

💡 WHAT IT MEANS
If you buy standard industrial sultanas, you should get more origin choice into new crop. If you buy premium colour, organic, strict MRL, or US-entry-sensitive product, do not assume the global surplus solves your problem.

🇺🇸 What's going on in California

  • 2025-crop deliveries to handlers: 202,791.8035 sweatbox tons.
  • Comparable last season: 210,390.0435 sweatbox tons.
  • Held on memorandum storage, natural seedless: 2,083.996 sweatbox tons.
  • Held for reconditioning: 7,339.306 sweatbox tons.
  • All-variety commercial shipments: 113,396 packed tons from August through February, up 3% year on year.
  • Processed raisin-grape price: 410 USD per fresh ton for 2025, down slightly from 412 USD in 2024.

Here is the California read. Demand movement was not bad early in the crop year, but handler deliveries were lower than last season. Water has improved, with the State Water Project allocation raised to 45% and south-of-Delta CVP irrigation contractors raised to 25%. Still, California is not where buyers go for bargain bulk in the same way they might chase Turkey or Iran.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers — read this)

This is where buyers can get caught. Raisins look simple until the container hits residue, moisture, mould, foreign matter, colour or documentation friction.

For EU-bound product, the MRL regime matters. EU rules apply to processed products such as raisins after concentration or dilution adjustment. Where there is no specific MRL, the default is 0.01 mg/kg. That is not a paperwork footnote. That is a load-release issue.

For US-bound Turkey origin, FDA Import Alert 99-15 keeps Turkey-origin raisins under countrywide detention without physical examination for pesticide residues, except firms on the Green List. FDA 99-08 also lists raisin and dried-grape products for pesticide-residue detention, including updated 2025 and 2026 entries.

⚠️ RESIDUE ALERT
Cheap Turkish fruit is not cheap if it cannot clear the customer route. For US entry, check Green List status. For EU entry, run the MRL screen before you fall in love with the price.

Practical takeaway: separate buying lanes by destination. EU, US, organic, golden and industrial bakery lots need different approval discipline. Do not mix them in one generic raisin tender.

🌐 Where the raisins is coming from

🇹🇷 Turkey
2026/27 crop:
290,000 MT preliminary

EU imports from Turkey:
95,115 MT in 2024

Driver: Recovery crop, FX, residues, Manisa weather.
🇺🇸 USA
2026/27 crop:
160,000 MT preliminary

Handler deliveries:
202,791.8035 sweatbox tons

Driver: Water, acreage opacity, premium Thompson position.
🇮🇷 Iran
2026/27 crop:
200,000 MT preliminary

EU imports from Iran:
13,855 MT in 2024

Driver: Availability, payment channels, sanctions screening.

Turkey is the market-maker. EU import data had Turkey at 95,115 MT in 2024, well ahead of South Africa at 38,452 MT, China at 33,707 MT, Chile at 16,425 MT and Iran at 13,855 MT. So when Turkey loosens, Europe notices first.

The USA is more of a premium and controlled-supply story. USDA's acreage reporting has a gap now, because the raisin-type acreage totals are unavailable after the Raisin Administrative Committee stopped funding that survey component. That makes field-level supply visibility harder than buyers would like.

Iran and India both show big 2026/27 preliminary numbers at 200,000 MT each. The catch is not just crop size. It is payment, documentation, destination acceptability, colour, size and residue route.

📊 Who's buying what

Visible 2024 import demand, product-weight MT

EU
 227,016
UK
 84,923
USA
 28,851
Japan
 27,471
💡 READING THE CHART
Europe is still the big visible pull. INC says dried grapes held **39%** of world dried-fruit consumption in 2024, so this is not a niche ingredient. Bakery, cereal, confectionery and snack demand keep the base steady.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

  • 🇺🇸 California water: State Water Project allocation rose to 45% of requested supplies, while CVP south-of-Delta irrigation contractors moved to 25% of contract total. Better, not perfect.
  • 🇺🇸 California storage: Primary intrastate reservoirs held 32.6 million acre-feet, equal to 118% of average, but snowpack was basically gone by mid-May.
  • 🇮🇳 India weather: IMD put the 2026 southwest monsoon at 92% of long-period average, and late-May heat reached 43-47°C across parts of India. Watch Maharashtra grape zones.
  • 🇹🇷 Turkey weather: USDA/NOAA saw 10-80 mm weekly rainfall across much of central, northern and eastern Turkey in mid-May. Helpful for moisture, but not a yield guarantee.
  • 🇺🇸 US duties: 2026 HTS rates are 1.8 US cents/kg for seedless-grape raisins, 2.8 US cents/kg for other raisins and 3.5 US cents/kg for other dried grapes.
  • 🇪🇺 EU duty: Conventional CN 0806 20 dried grapes sit at 2.4% ad valorem.
  • 🇮🇷 Iran route: OFAC food and agricultural authorizations exist, but SDN, IRGC and proscribed-conduct exposure remains a real payment and compliance screen.
  • 🇺🇸 US inspection: USDA AMS requires imported raisins to be inspected, and seedless raisins must be at least 70% by weight well matured or reasonably well matured.
  • 🇺🇸 Packaging: US and EU wood-packaging rules require ISPM 15 treatment and marking. Noncompliant US entries can be refused.

✅ If I were you, I'd...

I would not treat this as a one-price market. The 2026/27 crop is bigger, yes. But the right coverage depends on destination, spec and timing.

✅ Split tenders by destination: EU, US and domestic specs should not be lumped together.
✅ Cover premium and organic earlier: those lines are not loosening like standard industrial fruit.
✅ Use Turkey for leverage: but screen MRLs and FDA route before chasing the low number.
✅ Keep California for controlled specs: especially where consistency beats headline price.
✅ Watch India heat and monsoon: the crop story is not finished.
✅ Check Iran payment lanes early: do not discover banking friction after the contract is live.

For standard Q4 industrial cover, you can probably be more patient than last year. For organic, golden, EU-strict or US-bound lots, the practical move is to qualify origins and documents sooner rather than waiting for the cheapest headline offer.

💬 Looking for something specific?
Just hit reply — tell me what tonnage you need and when, and I'll come back to you with origins that fit your specs.
Or copy-paste one of these:
→ "Send me EU-compliant Turkish sultana options"
→ "I need organic type 9 coverage for Q4"
→ "Show me California versus Turkey for bakery specs"
→ Reply to this email

Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

🔗 Source Notes

Every figure above, with its exact date and link, consolidated here for compliance.

  1. INC Congress May 2026 — 2026/27 world raisin/sultana/currant balance sheet and origin production estimates — as of 2026-05-28 — Tier 0 / INC Congress May 2026, no public link
  2. USDA FAS Turkey Fresh Deciduous Fruit Annual — Turkey grape production and raisin-use shares — as of 2025-12-02 — https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Fresh+Deciduous+Fruit+Annual_Ankara_Turkiye_TU2025-0059.pdf
  3. Raisin Administrative Committee Acquisitions Report — California 2025-crop handler deliveries, memorandum storage and reconditioning volumes — as of 2026-05-06 — https://www.raisins.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Acquisitions-WE-5-2-26.pdf
  4. INC Global Statistical Review 2025 — dried grapes share of global dried-fruit consumption — as of 2025-12-02 — https://inc.nutfruit.org/inc-nuts-and-dried-fruit-global-statistical-review-2025-edition-available-now/
  5. World Bank WITS EU HS 080620 Imports — EU dried-grape import volume, value and origin split — as of 2026-05-24 — https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/EUN/year/2024/tradeflow/Imports/partner/ALL/product/080620
  6. World Bank WITS Global HS 080620 Importers — top visible dried-grape import markets including EU, UK and Japan — as of 2026-05-14 — https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2024/tradeflow/Imports/partner/WLD/product/080620
  7. World Bank WITS USA HS 080620 Imports — US dried-grape import volume, value and origin split — as of 2026-05-17 — https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/USA/year/2024/tradeflow/Imports/partner/ALL/product/080620
  8. Raisin Administrative Committee Shipment Report — California all-variety commercial shipments through February — as of 2026-03-10 — https://www.raisins.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Shipment-Report-ME-2-28-26-REVISED-1.pdf
  9. Commodity Board Turkish Sultana Raisins Commentary — early-May Turkish conventional and organic FOB price indications — as of 2026-05-06 — https://commodity-board.com/turkish-sultana-raisins-hold-firm-as-indian-grades-ease-slightly/
  10. California Department of Water Resources — State Water Project allocation increase to 45% — as of 2026-05-15 — https://water.ca.gov/News/News-Releases/2026/May-2026/State-Water-Project-Allocation-Increases-Heading-into-Summer-Months
  11. US Bureau of Reclamation — CVP south-of-Delta irrigation contractor allocation increase to 25% — as of 2026-05-19 — https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/5338
  12. USDA NASS Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2025 Summary — California processed raisin-grape price — as of 2026-05-01 — https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795891/ncit0526.txt
  13. USDA NASS California Grape Acreage Report — raisin-type acreage totals unavailable due to survey funding change — as of 2026-04-22 — https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Specialty_and_Other_Releases/Grapes/Acreage/2026/grpacSUMMARY2025Crop.pdf
  14. EU Pesticide MRL Legislation — processed-product MRL treatment and 0.01 mg/kg default MRL — as of 2026-05-23 — https://food.ec.europa.eu/plants/pesticides/maximum-residue-levels/eu-legislation-mrls_en
  15. FDA Import Alert 99-15 — Turkey-origin raisin detention without physical examination for pesticide residues except Green List firms — as of 2026-03-05 — https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/cms_ia/importalert_262.html
  16. FDA Import Alert 99-08 — raisin and dried-grape pesticide-residue detention listings — as of 2026-05-22 — https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/cms_ia/importalert_259.html
  17. USDA AMS Raisin Import Requirements — imported raisin inspection and 70% maturity requirement — as of 2026-05-28 — https://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/section8e/raisins
  18. US APHIS Generally Authorized Plant Products — raisins generally allowed without APHIS permit or phytosanitary certificate subject to inspection — as of 2025-07-30 — https://direct.aphis.usda.gov/ace/generally-authorized-non-propagative-plant-products
  19. US APHIS Wood Packaging Material Rules — ISPM 15 wood-packaging treatment and entry refusal risk — as of 2026-02-18 — https://www.aphis.usda.gov/plant-imports/wood-packaging-material/import
  20. EU Wood Packaging and Dunnage Requirements — EU ISPM 15 treatment and marking rules — as of 2026-05-23 — https://food.ec.europa.eu/plants/plant-health-and-biosecurity/trade-plants-plant-products-non-eu-countries/requirements-wood-packaging-dunnage_en
  21. USITC HTS 0806.20 — US 2026 specific duties for raisins and dried grapes — as of 2026-05-28 — https://hts.usitc.gov/search?query=0806.20.10.90
  22. EU Combined Nomenclature 2026 — EU 2.4% ad valorem duty for CN 0806 20 dried grapes — as of 2026-01-01 — https://muitine.lrv.lt/public/canonical/1768394483/1491/OJ_L_202501926_EN_TXT%20%282%29.pdf
  23. OFAC Iran FAQ and May 2026 Advisory — Iran agricultural-commodity authorizations and sanctions risk boundaries — as of 2026-05-01 — https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260501
  24. USDA/NOAA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin — California reservoir storage, Turkey rainfall and South Asia heat/dryness — as of 2026-05-19 — https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795911/wwcb2026.pdf
  25. India Meteorological Department Monsoon Outlook — 2026 southwest monsoon forecast at 92% of long-period average — as of 2026-04-13 — https://mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/marquee_data/Long%20Range%20Forecast%20for%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20Season%20Rainfall_Press_release_13.4.2026%20%281%29.pdf
  26. India Meteorological Department Weather Release — late-May Indian heat and gust observations — as of 2026-05-28 — https://mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/marquee_data/Press%20Release%2028-05-2026.pdf

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.

Constantinos Cardassilaris