Almond Industry Outlook 2025: Global Supply, Demand & Economics

🌍 Global Almond Market Outlook 2025

Insights from the INC Congress Almond Roundtable – Mallorca, May 2025

The global almond industry gathered for the 42nd INC Congress, offering deep insights into production, economics, and demand trends shaping the future of almonds.

📉 Supply Chain Pressures & Realities

🇺🇸 California

  • 2023/24 crop was overestimated by 331M lbs, while carryout was underestimated by 175.5M lbs, tightening supply and boosting prices.
  • 2024/25 estimate: 2.7B lbs (midpoint of four industry forecasts).
  • Economic Viability:
    • Growers in North San Joaquin Valley face –$932/acre losses, even at $3/lb.
    • Self-fertile varieties show smaller losses (–$74/acre).
  • Input Costs Rising: PG&E electricity bills up 54% since 2020, with another 49% increase approved.
  • Water Regulation: SIGMA and reduced water availability continue to pressure yields.
  • Land IQ: Slight increase in acreage in 2024, but removals may reduce 2025 bearing acreage.

🇦🇺 Australia

  • 98% crop sold with minimal carryout (4,000 MT).
  • Crop down due to frost, extreme heat, and Montterrey leafing failure.
  • Major export destinations: China (52%) and India (10%) – together 62% of exports.
  • 40% of orchards to be replanted over next 5–7 years.
  • High cost of replanting: AUD $75,000/ha compared to €10,000/ha in Iberia.

🇪🇸 Spain & 🇵🇹 Portugal

  • Spain:
    • 2024: 104,596 MT → 2025 projection: 122,000 MT (+17%).
    • 80% of almond acreage is dryland and heavily dependent on rainfall.
    • Fully irrigated farms are only 5% of total—but are the only ones generating real profit.
  • Portugal:
    • Stable water supply via Alqueva Dam.
    • 2024: 18,800 MT → 2025: 20,000 MT.
    • Long-term ceiling estimated at 50,000 MT.

📈 Demand Outlook: India & U.S. in Focus

🇮🇳 India: The Rising Power

  • Population: 1.44 billion with 60% under age 30.
  • Quick Commerce Boom: 4.5M orders/day (from 0 in just 5 years).
  • Traditional to Modern:
    • From soaked almonds to almond-based cookies, muesli, energy bars.
    • Health is the new luxury, but price sensitivity remains high.
  • E-commerce + Influencer Culture driving awareness and premiumization.
  • Almond Board campaigns have moved the needle—from generic "badam" to California Almonds.

🇺🇸 United States: Stable but Evolving

  • 53% of consumers buy almonds (+5% since 2022).
  • 86% view almonds as healthy; 73% see them as part of a balanced diet.
  • Category declines: Trail mixes, plant-based milk, cereal down 2.5% over 3 years.
  • Bright Spot: Nutritional beverages gaining traction.
  • Opportunity: Foodservice—only 22% of menu items contain almonds.

🔮 Strategic Takeaways

  1. Market is rebounding: Price and demand are realigning after oversupply.
  2. Innovation is critical: New formats, ingredient usage, and flavor-forward products needed.
  3. Sustainability includes economics: Grower viability must be central to strategy.
  4. Iberian Almond Identity: Mediterranean producers gaining favor—but need unified branding and institutional data like ABC or ABA.
  5. Almonds = shelf-life advantage: Long life and no perishability create hidden economic value.
Constantinos Cardassilaris