Almond Kernel Production Forecast: A Country-by-Country Breakdown
📊 Estimated World Almond Production
Kernel Basis | Metric Tons | Source: 42nd INC Congress, Mallorca 2025
Here’s a full breakdown of the 2024/25 actuals and 2025/26 forecasts for almond production, supply, and stocks across major producing countries:
🌐 Global Overview
| Year | Crop Volume | Total Supply | Ending Stock | Estimated Consumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | 1,636,773 MT | 1,918,247 MT | 249,500 MT | 1,668,747 MT |
| 2025/26 | 1,675,350 MT | 1,924,850 MT | 249,020 MT | 1,675,830 MT |
✅ The market is relatively balanced with stable carryout and modest crop growth.
🌍 Top Producers – 2025/26 Forecast
| Country | Crop (MT) | % of Global Crop |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 1,225,800 | 73.1% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 155,500 | 9.3% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 122,000 | 7.3% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 23,000 | 1.4% |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 20,000 | 1.2% |
📌 The U.S. remains dominant, while Spain and Australia solidify their second-tier positions.
🔍 Regional Trends & Highlights
🇺🇸 USA:
- Crop unchanged at 2.7B lbs (~1.225M MT).
- Ending stock stable at 227,000 MT.
🇪🇸 Spain:
- Crop jumps from 104K → 122K MT.
- Continued dependence on rainfall for dryland orchards.
🇦🇺 Australia:
- Slight dip from 153K → 155.5K MT.
- Carryout remains low at just 4,000 MT.
🇨🇳 China:
- Small but notable increase: 16.8K → 24K MT.
- May signal strategic interest in domestic almond development.
🇲🇦 Morocco and 🇹🇳 Tunisia:
- Stable producers with small net surpluses.
🧠 Key Observations
- Carryout levels (~249K MT) indicate tight but healthy supply chains.
- No major oversupply risk going into 2025–2026.
- Stable prices likely—unless demand surges or extreme weather events disrupt major producers.
