Production Insights, Challenges & 2030 Forecast | Global Cashew Market Trends 2025:
Global Cashew Market Outlook 2025: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities
The global cashew market is evolving rapidly. With shifts in production, processing, and consumption trends worldwide, stakeholders in the nuts industry are gearing up for substantial growth alongside significant challenges. Here's a comprehensive breakdown of what's shaping the cashew market in 2025 and beyond, based on insights from the World Nut and Dried Fruit Congress 2025.
Cashew Production Trends: Key Insights
Slight Decline in Global Cashew Production
Global cashew production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at approximately 5.21 million tons, marking a slight decrease from last year's 5.29 million tons. Climatic factors have notably influenced yields, impacting major producing regions.
Côte d'Ivoire Emerges as a Production Leader
Côte d'Ivoire continues its impressive growth trajectory, leading global production with over 1.25 million tons—a significant rise from just 650,000 tons in 2016. The country's focus on expanding infrastructure and processing capabilities underscores its pivotal role.
Vietnam and Cambodia: Navigating Climatic Challenges
Vietnam faces a production dip of 10-15% due to unseasonal rains and flowering delays. Meanwhile, Cambodia's cashew production remains strong (around 775,000-800,000 tons), driven by large-sized nut varieties (M23), though challenged by moisture concerns and weather fluctuations.
India's Stable Production, Tanzania Hits Record Levels
India remains steady around 725,000 tons, underscoring its consistent production despite plateauing conditions. Tanzania achieves a record high of 425,000 tons, contributing significantly to the southern hemisphere’s stability.
Market Demand and Consumption Dynamics
U.S. Market: Price Sensitivity and Policy Volatility
The U.S., the world's leading cashew importer (~34.5% household penetration), shows significant sensitivity to price fluctuations. Demand elasticity remains high, and retail buyers continue resisting absorbing tariff-related price increases, challenging importers’ profitability.
Europe: Decelerated but Sustainable Growth
Europe remains the largest importing region. Cashew demand continues to grow but at a slower pace, especially in northern Europe. Southern European markets, however, are experiencing faster growth. Consumers across the continent increasingly prefer sustainable, healthier snack options.
China’s Explosive Market Expansion
China represents the fastest-growing cashew market, with imports surging 42% in 2024 alone. Predominantly consuming roasted cashews with skin, China's demand surge signals vast untapped opportunities for market expansion.
India: Sustained Domestic Consumption Growth
India retains its position as the world's largest cashew consumer, holding around 30% of global consumption. Despite stagnant domestic production, increasing imports are keeping pace with rising demand, projected to grow steadily at approximately 6% annually.
Key Challenges and Opportunities Ahead
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
The cashew industry is facing significant disruptions, including climatic events like El Niño, government interventions (e.g., Ivory Coast export bans), and uncertain tariff environments. These factors have heightened volatility in global pricing and supply chains.
Rising Demand for Origin Processing
Africa, particularly Côte d'Ivoire, is emerging as a critical hub for cashew processing. Driven by governmental incentives and infrastructure investments, the region aims to enhance sustainability, reduce carbon footprints, and improve traceability.
Regulatory Impacts: Sustainability and Tariffs
Regulatory pressures continue rising, particularly from EU deforestation and sustainability initiatives and potential U.S. tariffs (up to 46%) on Vietnamese imports. These regulations profoundly affect sourcing decisions, production processes, and market access.
Cashew Market Forecast: Preparing for 2030
Projected Global Consumption Growth
By 2030, global cashew kernel consumption is forecasted to reach around 1.56 million tons. To meet this demand, raw cashew nut (RCN) production must expand significantly to approximately 7.11 million tons.
Asia to Lead Future Demand
Markets such as China and India are expected to dominate global demand growth, driven by increasing consumer incomes, evolving snacking habits, and growing health consciousness.
Strategic Recommendations for Cashew Businesses
Embrace Sustainability Initiatives
Invest proactively in sustainable practices. Align your supply chain with EU and U.S. regulatory frameworks to ensure compliance and competitiveness.
Diversify Cashew Processing Regions
Support investments in African origin-processing facilities to navigate potential tariff challenges, reduce carbon footprints, and improve traceability.
Capitalize on Emerging Markets
Leverage substantial growth opportunities in China and India by developing tailored products and innovative marketing strategies that align with local consumer preferences.
Prioritize Supply Chain Transparency
Enhance traceability and transparency across your supply chain. Clear and documented sourcing practices will increasingly become mandatory to manage regulatory risks and maintain consumer trust.
Conclusion: Cashew Industry Resilience
While facing notable challenges from climate, regulations, and market volatility, the global cashew industry remains poised for robust growth. By adopting sustainability, transparency, and market-diversification strategies, businesses can successfully navigate this dynamic landscape toward 2030 and beyond.
Stay informed and ahead of the trends to ensure your business thrives in the evolving cashew market.
