June 2025 Cashew Outlook | West Africa Crop & Global Demand

Cashew Market Update – May/June 2025

West African Crop Progress & Export Flow

Roughly 75% of West African cashew crops have now moved through the supply chain, with the bulk of exportable volumes shipped in May.
As we head into the final phase of the season, availability from key origins is gradually tightening.
Guinea-Bissau and Senegal are now in flow, offering the last of West Africa’s high-quality crop for the season.

Overall, both volume and quality are stronger than last year, contributing to a more stable supply environment.
Prices for inshells are showing a softening trend, especially as major processors in India and Vietnam have already secured substantial volumes earlier in the season.

Trade Movement & Regulatory Shifts

A major development has been the removal of export restrictions in Burkina Faso, allowing trade to resume freely.
Early landings at destination markets are already underway, helping to ease raw material supply for kernel processors.

In contrast, spot kernel inventories in Vietnam remain tight, largely due to U.S. buyers pulling forward earlier contracts in response to recent tariff changes.

Global Kernel Demand Snapshot

📦 China has shown strong buying interest since the start of the season, particularly for Cambodian-origin kernels, injecting steady liquidity into the market.
📦 Other Asian buyers have remained active, covering needs through Q3.
📦 Europe showed stable demand through May, with tenders being finalized for mid-year deliveries.
📦 U.S. buyers continue to take a cautious stance, mainly pulling minimal inventory as they monitor the ongoing tariff environment and adjust forward coverage accordingly.

Market Pressure Points

Even as raw supply improves, market behavior remains mixed:

  • Slower-than-usual export movement from parts of West Africa may apply upward pressure on pricing
  • Local processors in Côte d’Ivoire (IVC) are absorbing larger volumes this year, limiting available export supply
  • Demand from China remains aggressive, particularly in Q2 kernel coverage

On the other hand, we’re also seeing signs of a softer tone:

  • Tariffs in the U.S. are impacting shelf pricing, which may constrain consumer demand
  • Many buyers have already covered for Q2 and Q3 and are unlikely to re-enter the market in the short term
  • Fewer retail and roaster promotions in Q1 may point to demand adjustments in response to rising prices

What Buyers Should Consider

📉 Inshell prices may remain soft in the near term, but coverage gaps could shift sentiment quickly.
📦 Monitor freight timelines and destination arrivals as we approach Q3.
📈 Keep an eye on Asia’s kernel activity — particularly China — as a key market indicator.

📬 For current offers, Q3 availability, and shipment guidance, reach out directly.

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