Inside the 2025 Peanut Trade: Surplus, Strategy & Sourcing Smarts
🥜 Global Peanut Market 2025: Who’s Holding, Who’s Selling, and What Smart Buyers Should Do Next
Introduction: The Peanut Game Just Got Real
The peanut world isn’t quiet anymore. Supply is shifting, exporters are sweating, and buyers are getting pickier. Whether you’re sourcing for crushing, snacks, or premium specs, 2025 is shaping up to be a market where speed, quality, and timing separate the winners from the rest.
Here’s your no-fluff guide to what’s happening across origins — and how you can profit from it.
🌎 Origin-by-Origin: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not
🇦🇷 Argentina: Big Volumes, Bigger Discounts
Old stocks are piling up, and buyers know it. Traders are holding 2023 crop at $850–1,000/t, but it’s mixed quality. Pressure from the new crop is building fast — and that means deal time.
💰 Target crushing-grade parcels below $1,000/t.
🌍 Africa: Rains, Risk, and Reluctance
It’s wet. Too wet. Rains across Mozambique and Tanzania have slowed harvests and raised concerns about aflatoxin. South African hand-picked lots are still golden, but you’ll pay a premium.
⚠️ If you're buying in Africa, you need trusted boots on the ground.
🇮🇳 India: Chaos and Opportunity
The world's largest peanut player is unpredictable right now. A sudden ban on lab testing triggered a wave of export defaults. Domestic prices are climbing, demand is down 5%, and buyers are nervous.
🔍 Rule #1 for India in 2025: Only deal with BRC-certified exporters.
🇨🇳 China: Market Found Its Floor?
Chinese growers are refusing to drop prices further — and with good planting progress underway, we may have hit bottom. Blanched FOB 25/29s are landing at $1,280/t, and in-shell deals are firming up.
📦 Expect sideways pricing until the August harvest.
🇧🇷 Brazil: Big Crop, Low Pulse
Brazil is harvesting a record 1.17 MMT crop, but prices haven’t broken down. Sellers are digging in at $1,200/t for food-grade, while crush-grade demand stays thin.
🕒 It’s not time yet — but watch this space. Weak freight or cashflow pressure could shift things fast.
🔍 Demand Watch: Who’s Buying, Who’s Stalling
🇮🇩 Indonesia: Holding Stock, Watching Prices
Arrivals are low. Stocks are high. And some Indian contracts are defaulting. Local processors are in no rush, and the market correction feels inevitable.
🇵🇭 Philippines: Demand on Pause
From mid-April to early June, it’s been dead quiet. Sellers are offering credit just to move volume. A signal? Absolutely.
🇻🇳 Vietnam: Defaults, Disputes, and Discounts
Poor-quality arrivals and contract disputes have chilled re-orders. But India’s exporters are fighting back — and winning business — with credit terms.
📉 Everyone wants volume, but no one wants risk.
🇪🇺 Europe: Hunting for “Killer Deals”
EU buyers are cherry-picking. Bird-feed is about to pop in Q4, but snack players want only clean, clear COAs and aggressive pricing.
🐦 Bird-feed parcels from Argentina could fly — literally.
🧠 India Deep Dive: Giant, But Fragmented
- 🌾 11 million tons of in-shell output
- 👨🌾 5 million farmers, mostly smallholders
- 🏭 4,500 shellers, 1,000+ brokers — and only 37 BRC-certified exporters
Problem? Mixed varieties. Traceability gaps. Aflatoxin risks.
Solution? Segregated lots. Verified labs. Trusted processors.
💡 India’s year-round supply is unmatched — but so is its risk profile.
📈 What Smart Buyers Should Do Now
✅ 1. Lock in Bird-Feed & Crushing Specs Early
Argentina and Africa are still well stocked, and pre-harvest panic hasn’t started — yet.
✅ 2. Separate Your Quality Tiers
Don’t pay premiums for low-grade lots. Use differentiated sourcing for snack specs vs. oil-grade.
✅ 3. Audit Your Indian Partners
If you haven’t updated your vendor list since the lab ban, do it this week.
✅ 4. Stay Alert on Brazil Freight & China FX
Brazil's FOB may collapse fast if freight or currency shifts — keep quotes refreshed weekly.
✅ 5. Watch for High-Oil Varietals
Tifrunner and similar varieties blanch better, brown slower, and deliver better margins for processors.
🗓️ Your 60-Day Game Plan
| Task | Deadline | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Secure bird-feed from Argentina | June | Discounts will shrink fast |
| Vet Indian exporters & labs | ASAP | Avoid the next wave of defaults |
| Pitch test lots to EU buyers | July | Demand rising for Q4 deals |
| Track Brazil freight quotes | Weekly | A sudden drop = buying window |
| Position S.Africa hand-picked in Asia | July–Aug | Premiums strong in Japan/Korea |
Final Thoughts: The Market is Talking. Are You Listening?
2025 isn’t a volume game — it’s a value game. If you're trading on price alone, you’ll miss the real profit margins hiding in quality, credit terms, and varietal performance.
If you're a buyer, trader, or processor, this is your moment to act smart, fast, and selectively.
