California Almond Market Report – May 2025 Shipments, Sales & Forecast
🌰 May 2025 Almond Market Update – What’s Going On?
The latest numbers are in! The Almond Board of California has released its May report, giving us a clear picture of how this year’s almond season is wrapping up.
Let’s break it down in a simple way.
📦 How Big Is This Year’s Crop?
| 📊 | Number | Change from Last Year |
|---|---|---|
| Almonds delivered in April | 2.81 million lbs | +538% (!) |
| Total crop so far | 2.71 billion lbs | +11.2% |
| Final crop size (expected) | Just under 2.72 billion lbs | — |
👉 The harvest is pretty much done. It’s a bigger crop than last year—but not massive.
🚚 Shipments – Good for Export, Not So Great at Home
| 🚛 | May 2025 | May 2024 | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total shipped | 211.76 million lbs | 226.06 million lbs | ‑6.3% |
| U.S. shipments | 51.03 million lbs | 65.65 million lbs | ‑22.3% |
| Exports | 160.73 million lbs | 160.41 million lbs | +0.2% |
👉 Domestic demand is weak—third month in a row with big drops.
🌍 Exports are holding up:
- India is buying more (thanks to the upcoming Diwali season).
- China is still quiet due to high import taxes.
- Europe stayed about the same.
💰 Sales – Everyone’s Waiting
| 📦 | May 2025 | May 2024 | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales this month | 88.99 million lbs | 134.19 million lbs | ‑34% |
| New crop sales | 65.70 million lbs | 173.12 million lbs | ‑62% |
| Total commitments | 402.31 million lbs | 460.81 million lbs | ‑13% |
📌 What’s happening?
Buyers and sellers are holding off, waiting to see what the July 10 official crop estimate will say.
📦 Inventory – Some Items Already Running Low
| 📦 | Available Almonds | 📈 Change |
|---|---|---|
| Uncommitted Inventory | 495.22 million lbs | +17% |
Even though inventory looks high, some sizes and types are already sold out until the new crop arrives in August.
🔎 What It All Means
✅ The 2024 crop is done.
✅ Export markets are doing fine.
❌ The U.S. market is struggling—again.
⏳ Buyers are playing the waiting game.
🛒 Some almonds are already hard to find.
🔮 What’s Next?
| 🔮 Area | What to Expect |
|---|---|
| Spot prices | May stay firm—less product available now |
| New crop pricing | Could be volatile after July estimate |
| India | Expected to keep buying strong for holiday season |
| China | Will stay slow unless tariffs change |
| U.S. sales | Likely to stay soft unless big marketing push happens |
✅ Bottom Line
This month’s report isn’t bad, but it’s a bit slow—mostly because U.S. buyers are sitting on the sidelines.
💡 If you need almonds for the next few months, now’s a good time to plan ahead—some items won’t be available again until harvest.
📅 Keep your eyes on July 10, when the final crop estimate drops. That’ll tell us how the 2025 season is really shaping up.
