Hazelnut Market Report 2026/27: Bigger Crop, Weak Demand, Quality Risk

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, in-shell MT unless I flag otherwise. Data as of 2026-05-23 — full sourcing in the Source Notes at the end.

🎯 The 30-second version

World 2026/27 hazelnut crop is pencilled at ~1.44M MT in-shell, preliminary, and Turkish demand is still not acting hungry.

If you're covering Q4, EU-bound manufacturing, or clean 11-13 mm kernels, this matters. Three minutes here should save you from treating a big crop like easy supply.

▲ WORLD CROP 1,435,070 MT 2026/27 preliminary in-shell crop. Big crop, not all clean.	▲ TURKEY CROP 809,940 MT 2026/27 preliminary Turkish in-shell crop. Supply cushion is back.
▼ EXPORT PULL -47% Turkish exports Sep 2025-Mar 2026, year on year. Demand still cautious.	▲ EXPORT VALUE USD 991m Turkey Jan-Apr 2026 exports: 71,000 MT, USD 990.967m. Value held better.

📋 What's actually happening

Per INC's preliminary read, the 2026/27 world hazelnut crop is pencilled at ~1.44M MT in-shell. That is a big reset after a tighter and messier 2025/26.

OFI says the market has stabilised after the long slide from the September-October 2025 highs. The key point is not that buyers suddenly got brave. It is that offers slowed once prices moved under the expected Turkish intervention-price logic.

USDA's calling it differently in one important way: public balance-sheet coverage is thin because USDA/FAS says it does not maintain a hazelnut Production, Supply and Distribution table. So for hazelnuts, the real market still runs on origin reads, processor feedback, export flow and physical price discovery.

Here's the catch: big in-shell crop does not automatically mean easy clean kernel cover. Public market commentary still points to weak demand, spot buying and quality segregation, with buyers leaning short term after the correction — that's the read from OFI and Commodity Board.

Put it together: the bearish supply story is real, but the easy-money short story is not. That matters most if you're EU-bound, spec-sensitive, or trying to cover Q4 from new crop without taking quality risk.

🌍 The hazelnut supply picture

Looking at INC's numbers, global 2026/27 supply is comfortable on paper. The preliminary world in-shell crop is ~1.44M MT, with beginning stocks near 162,000 MT and total supply around 1.6M MT. Ending stocks are pencilled at ~231,000 MT in-shell.

The main pieces (2026/27, preliminary):

• Opening stock: 162,200 MT in-shell.
• Crop: 1,435,070 MT in-shell.
• Total supply: 1,597,270 MT in-shell.
• Ending stock: 230,900 MT in-shell.

INC data shows Turkey doing most of the heavy lifting: 809,940 MT in-shell 2026/27 crop, 959,940 MT in-shell total supply and 220,000 MT in-shell ending stock, all preliminary.

Weather has not blown up the crop so far. The official late-April Black Sea alert from MGM was heavy rain and high-elevation freezing, with 21-75 kg/m2 precipitation intensity flagged, not a broad coastal frost across the core belt. April was cooler for the broader Black Sea region too, with a -1.1 C anomaly versus the long-term April average.

💡 WHAT IT MEANS We have enough crop on paper to cap panic. But if you're buying kernels, especially clean industrial sizes, don't confuse in-shell tonnage with usable spec. Quality and seller behaviour are doing the real price work now.

🇹🇷 What's going on in Türkiye

• Turkish 2026/27 crop: 809,940 MT in-shell (preliminary, per INC).
• Turkish 2026/27 beginning stock: 150,000 MT in-shell (preliminary, per INC).
• Turkish 2026/27 ending stock: 220,000 MT in-shell (preliminary, per INC).
• Turkish exports Sep 2025-Mar 2026 down 47% year on year.
• By late April, Turkish exports were 125,000 MT kernel basis, versus 235,000 MT a year earlier.

OFI says growers and traders slowed selling once prices moved below the expected TMO-related floor — it puts that support area around USD 10/kg kernel equivalent. That explains why the market stopped falling even while demand stayed soft.

Prices have corrected hard. Turkish kernels moved down from roughly USD 18/kg at the thin September 2025 peak to around USD 9.5/kg by late April. Expana showed Turkish 11-13 FOB at USD 11.90/kg. Different basis, same story: the crash happened, now the floor is being tested.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers — read this)

Quality is where this market gets less comfortable. Public commentary in 2026 points to Turkish origin being segmented: large clean kernels are scarcer, while smaller sizes and processed fractions are more available.

Industrial rejection risk is visible. Commodity Board cited up to 33% batch rejection rates in a leading buyer channel due to defective kernels and free fatty acid levels. That does not mean every lot is bad. It means your contract spec and origin control matter more than the headline crop number.

BMSB is still the pest everyone wants to talk about. A 2026 Journal of Economic Entomology study found Türkiye hazelnut phenology runs about 6 weeks earlier than Oregon and semi-field losses reached up to 85% during kernel expansion. Türkiye is fighting it at scale: official materials show work across 46 provinces and cumulative samurai wasp releases of 1.385 million during 2023-2025.

⚠️ EU QUALITY ALERT EU enhanced controls list Azerbaijan and Georgia hazelnuts and hazelnut products for aflatoxin risk with a 20% frequency of identity and physical checks (Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/194). This is a food-safety and documentation issue, not a live pest alert.

Post-harvest drying is not a small detail. A 2026 Toxins study found bad drying produced a 7-fold increase in Aspergillus section Flavi counts versus good drying.

Practical takeaway: if you're EU-bound, I'd pay attention to drying records, aflatoxin history, free fatty acid levels, defect tolerances and lot traceability before chasing the cheapest offer.

🌐 Where the hazelnuts are coming from

🇹🇷 Türkiye 2026/27 crop: 809,940 MT in-shell, preliminary 2026/27 ending stock: 220,000 MT in-shell, preliminary Driver: Bigger crop, weak exports, seller floor.

🇺🇸 USA 2026/27 crop: 123,500 MT in-shell, preliminary Processing: HGO processes about 75% of Oregon hazelnuts Driver: High-spec alternative origin.

🇬🇪 Georgia 2026/27 crop: 45,000 MT in-shell, preliminary EU exports: 9,900 MT to EU states Driver: Active EU outlet, aflatoxin controls.

Türkiye still sets the tone. But it is not the only game anymore. Public May 2026 commentary says alternative origins are gaining acceptance, especially where buyers can match price, specification and risk tolerance.

The U.S. is becoming more relevant for North American manufacturing. Ferrero's published sourcing strategy includes Türkiye, Italy, Chile and the USA, and its new North American production references Oregon hazelnuts.

Georgia remains active but needs food-safety discipline. FAO/EU cited 17 RASFF border rejections in 2025 and approved 22 grants to co-finance hazelnut drying equipment.

📊 Who's buying what

USDA does not maintain a hazelnut supply and demand table; demand markers below use sourced Turkish export flow, kernel MT where stated.

Normal pull	300,000 MT
Last season	235,000 MT
OFI year view	200,000 MT
CB high	170,000 MT
Current	125,000 MT

The 300,000 MT normal export pull, 235,000 MT prior-season same-date exports, 200,000 MT OFI full-year view and 125,000 MT current-season exports come from OFI. The 170,000 MT high-end projection is Commodity Board's.

💡 READING THE CHART Demand has not disappeared. It has gone tactical. Large buyers have been covered nearby, smaller buyers are filling short needs, and Q4 interest is leaning new crop rather than long forward old-crop cover.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

• 🇪🇺 Aflatoxin control: Azerbaijan and Georgia hazelnuts face 20% EU identity and physical checks for aflatoxins (EU 2026/194).
• 🇹🇷 Moisture backdrop: Black Sea winter precipitation was 40% above normal, and Giresun and Trabzon had their highest winter precipitation in 66 years.
• 🇹🇷 Spring conditions: EU JRC/MARS said cool and wet conditions delayed field operations and early crop development in Türkiye.
• 🇪🇺 Climate watch: NOAA puts El Nino odds at 82% for May-June-July 2026. That is a monitoring flag, not a Black Sea weather forecast by itself.
• 🇺🇸 No futures hedge: Borsa Istanbul VIOP futures categories did not show a hazelnut contract, while Expana publishes physical hazelnut EBPs.

✅ If I were you, I'd...

I would not chase every dip blindly. The crop is big enough to stop panic buying, yes. But the market is now about timing, spec and origin mix. If your factory needs clean kernels, the cheapest nominal offer can still be the expensive one.

✅ Split Q4 cover: take some new-crop protection, leave some room for harvest pressure. ✅ Write quality tight: defects, free fatty acids, aflatoxin, sizing and rejection rights need to be clear. ✅ Use origin mix: Turkey for liquidity, USA or Chile where spec and factory acceptance justify it. ✅ Watch TMO signals: farmer selling behaviour changes fast around intervention-price expectations. ✅ Track BMSB in June: kernel expansion is the risk window that can turn crop volume into quality discount. ✅ For EU-bound lots: ask for drying history and aflatoxin paperwork before fixing price.

Bottom line: if you're buying standard industrial specs, the practical move is to stage coverage sooner rather than wait for a perfect low that only exists on paper.

💬 Looking for something specific? Just hit reply — tell me what tonnage you need and when, and I'll come back to you with origins that fit your specs. Or copy-paste one of these: → "Send me Q4 Turkish 11-13 kernel options" → "I need EU-compliant hazelnut lots with aflatoxin control" → "Compare Turkey, Georgia and USA for my spec" → Reply to this email

Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

🔗 Source Notes

Every figure above, with its exact date and link, consolidated here for compliance.

1. INC (Int'l Nut & Dried Fruit Council), Congress May 2026 — 2026/27 preliminary world & Turkish balance sheet (world crop 1,435,070 MT, beginning 162,200 MT, total supply 1,597,270 MT, ending 230,900 MT; Turkey crop 809,940 MT, beginning 150,000 MT, total supply 959,940 MT, ending 220,000 MT; USA crop 123,500 MT; Georgia crop 45,000 MT) — as of 2026-05-22 — Tier 0 / INC, no public link
2. OFI Market Report (April 2026) — Turkish exports 125,000 MT kernel by 25 Apr vs 235,000 MT a year earlier; price ~USD 18/kg (Sep 2025 peak) → ~USD 9.5/kg (late Apr); TMO support ~USD 10/kg kernel-eq; demand markers 300,000 / 235,000 / 200,000 / 125,000 MT — as of 2026-04-25/30 — https://shop.ofi.com/nuts-by-ofi-marketreport-april-2026
3. OFI Market Report (March 2026) — market stabilisation, weak demand, spot buying, quality segregation — https://shop.ofi.com/nuts-by-ofi-marketreport-march-2026
4. OFI Market Report (February 2026) — quality segmentation (large clean kernels scarcer) — https://shop.ofi.com/nuts-by-ofi-marketreport-february-2026
5. USDA/FAS — Tree Nuts Annual (Türkiye TU2024-0046) — FAS does not maintain a hazelnut PSD table — https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Tree+Nuts+Annual_Ankara_Turkiye_TU2024-0046.pdf
6. Tridge — Turkish exports Sep 2025–Mar 2026 down 47% YoY — as of 2026-03-31 — https://insights.tridge.com/speaker-product-news-reports/KJLyFXpzJzgKuB1Gqsm5QUKHGgR43AVdqLByrpaRvBWs9HsbHvDRMtVr
7. DKIB (East Black Sea Exporters' Assoc.) — Turkey Jan–Apr 2026 exports 71,000 MT, USD 990.967m — as of 2026-04-30 — https://dkib.org.tr/tr/basin-basin-bultenleri-findik-ihracatinda-deger-artisi-ilk-4-ayda-991-milyon-dolar-trabzon-zirvede.html
8. Expana — Turkish 11-13 FOB USD 11.90/kg — as of 2026-05-23 — https://www.expanamarkets.com/markets/
9. MGM (Turkish State Meteorology) — late-April Black Sea alert, 21-75 kg/m2 precip (2026-04-22); April -1.1 C anomaly (2026-05-11); winter precip +40%, Giresun/Trabzon wettest in 66 yrs (2026-03-17) — https://mgm.gov.tr/tahmin/uyari-goster.aspx?sN=26010270y · https://www.mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/sicaklik-analizi.aspx?ay=nisan · https://www.mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/yagis-raporu.aspx?b=m
10. Commodity Board — origin segmentation & alt-origin acceptance (2026-05-18); up to 33% batch rejections, FFA/defects (2026-02-23); 170,000 MT high-end demand projection (2026-04-27) — https://commodity-board.com/power-shift-in-hazelnuts-turkish-market-stabilizes-after-historic-correction/ · https://commodity-board.com/hazelnut-prices-under-pressure-quality-rejections-demand-weakness-intensify-market-strain/
11. Journal of Economic Entomology (2026) — Türkiye phenology ~6 weeks ahead of Oregon; semi-field BMSB losses up to 85% at kernel expansion — as of 2026-04-03 — journal, no open link
12. Türkiye Ministry of Agriculture — BMSB portal — work across 46 provinces; 1.385m cumulative samurai-wasp releases 2023-2025 — as of 2026-05-23 — https://kahverengikokarca.tarimorman.gov.tr/Sayfa/Detay/2111
13. Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/194 — Azerbaijan & Georgia hazelnuts: 20% identity/physical aflatoxin checks — as of 2026-01-29 — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=OJ%3AL_202600194
14. Toxins (2026) — bad drying = 7-fold rise in Aspergillus section Flavi vs good drying — as of 2026-01-11 — journal, no open link
15. Oregon.gov — HGO processes ~75% of Oregon hazelnuts — as of 2025-03-01 — https://www.oregon.gov/biz/newsroom/pages/oregon-hazelnut-industry-receives-local-and-international-support.aspx
16. MEPA (Georgia) — 9,900 MT hazelnuts to EU states — as of 2026-02-28 — https://mepa.gov.ge/En/News/Details/26320
17. Ferrero — sourcing strategy: Türkiye, Italy, Chile, USA — as of 2026-05-23 — https://www.ferrero.com/int/en/people-planet/source-our-ingredients-sustainably/hazelnuts
18. PR Newswire — Nutella Peanut Chicago-area plant references Oregon hazelnuts — as of 2026-04-24 — https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ferrero-begins-production-of-nutella-peanut-at-chicago-area-plant-302753349.html
19. FAO Georgia — 17 RASFF border rejections (2025); 22 grants co-financing drying equipment — as of 2026-03-25 — https://www.fao.org/georgia/resources/detail/hazelnut-trainings-2026/en
20. JRC MARS (EU) — cool/wet conditions delayed field ops & early crop development in Türkiye — as of 2026-05-18 — https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC145831
21. NOAA CPC — El Nino odds 82% for May–Jun–Jul 2026 — as of 2026-05-14 — https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
22. Borsa Istanbul — no hazelnut contract in VIOP futures — as of 2026-05-23 — https://www.borsaistanbul.com/en/markets/viop/futures

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.