Walnut Market Report 2026/27: Supply, Demand and Origin Outlook

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, in-shell MT unless I flag otherwise.

🎯 The 30-second version

2,874,800 MT is the 2026/27 world walnut crop number. But the real story is not huge oversupply. It is where the nuts are, who can ship them cleanly, and how fast California stock is moving.

If you are planning Q3+ coverage, EU-bound kernels, or container programs, this one matters. Three minutes here should save you a messy origin call later.

▲ WORLD CROP 2,874,800 MT 2026/27 in-shell crop. INC MAY 2026 Walnuts, as of 2026-05-20. Big crop, not loose everywhere.	▼ USA CROP 669,500 MT 2026/27 USA crop. INC MAY 2026 Walnuts, as of 2026-05-20. California cushion is thinner.
▲ CALIFORNIA EXPORTS +113.13% YTD in-shell exports through 2026-04-30, per California Walnut Board. Old crop is moving.	▲ CHINA EXPORTS 164,186 tons 2025 shelled exports. INC MAY 2026 Walnuts, as of 2026-05-20. China is no sideshow.

📋 What's actually happening

INC MAY 2026 Walnuts says world 2026/27 production is 2,874,800 MT in-shell, as of 2026-05-20. On a kernel basis, the same read puts the 2026/27 world crop at 1,246,450 MT, as of 2026-05-20. That is not a shortage headline. It is a balance headline.

USDA's final California number matters too. California 2025 in-shell walnut production finished at 809,000 short tons, as of 2026-05-01, and California Walnut Board final handler receipts were 809,445 short tons, as of 2026-04-08, per USDA NASS and CWB. That crop was bigger than early trade comfort levels.

Here's the catch: INC MAY 2026 Walnuts now has the USA 2026/27 crop at 669,500 MT in-shell, with total USA supply at 782,900 MT, as of 2026-05-20. So yes, there is carry-in. But new-crop USA production is not expanding in this read.

China is the other big piece. USDA FAS Beijing had China MY 2025/26 commercial production at 1.55 MMT in-shell, as of 2025-11-21, per USDA FAS. INC MAY 2026 Walnuts says China exported 203,283 tons in-shell and 164,186 tons shelled in calendar 2025, as of 2026-05-20. That is the trade-flow shift buyers cannot ignore.

Put it together: the world has walnuts, but not all walnuts solve EU kernel specs, timing, origin paperwork and forward-cover needs. That matters most if you buy containers, manufacture bakery or confectionery, or depend on consistent light kernels.

🌍 The walnut supply picture

Looking at INC MAY 2026 Walnuts' numbers, 2026/27 is close to balanced rather than screaming long. World consumption for 2025/26 is shown at 1,204,943 MT kernel basis, while 2026/27 world kernel crop supply is 1,246,450 MT, as of 2026-05-20.

The quick global frame:

• Opening stock: INC MAY 2026 Walnuts shows 78,642 MT kernel basis world opening stock for 2026/27, as of 2026-05-20.
• Crop: INC MAY 2026 Walnuts shows 1,246,450 MT kernel basis 2026/27 production, as of 2026-05-20.
• Total supply: INC MAY 2026 Walnuts shows 1,325,092 MT kernel basis 2026/27 total supply, as of 2026-05-20.
• Ending stock: INC MAY 2026 Walnuts shows 73,067 MT kernel basis 2026/27 ending stock, as of 2026-05-20.

Worth knowing: the headline world crop is large because China is large. But China is also exporting more, India is distorted by duty and routing, and California quality/spec availability is not the same thing as total stock.

💡 WHAT IT MEANS Do not buy the global number blindly. Buy the origin, crop year, color, sizing, shipment month and document set. The market is balanced enough that hesitation can work on generic specs, but risky on clean EU-bound kernels.

🇺🇸 What's going on in California

• Final California 2025 production was 809,000 short tons in-shell, as of 2026-05-01, per USDA NASS.
• California Walnut Board final 2025/26 handler receipts were 789,913 short tons conventional and 19,532 short tons organic, as of 2026-05-07, per CWB.
• YTD California in-shell exports reached 265,430,173 pounds, up 113.13% year over year, as of 2026-04-30, per CWB.
• YTD California kernel exports reached 257,840,176 pounds, up 15.43% year over year, as of 2026-04-30, per CWB.
• California March 31 inventory was 346.304 million pounds in-shell and 159.970 million pounds kernel, as of 2026-03-31, per CWB.

Per INC MAY 2026 Walnuts, as of 2026-05-20, the California 2025 crop is roughly 85% sold or committed, with remaining volume still manageable. Public CWB data does not publish that exact sold-through percentage, but the shipment pace and commitments explain why offers do not always feel as loose as the crop size suggests.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers — read this)

For EU buyers, quality is not only color and halves count. It is origin labeling, residue comfort, traceability, packer discipline and whether the shipment can pass customer paperwork without drama.

Germany's latest USDA product brief is a good reminder. Germany imported 41,184 MT of U.S. walnuts valued at USD 301 million in 2025, including 35,973 MT shelled valued at USD 286 million and 5,211 MT in-shell valued at USD 15 million, as of 2026-03-25, per USDA FAS Berlin. That is a big premium-spec channel.

EU rules also matter. USDA FAS Berlin says in-shell walnuts fall under the EU general marketing standard, and revised EU rules extended mandatory origin labeling to nuts and dried fruit, as of 2026-03-25, per USDA FAS Berlin.

⚠️ EU BUYER ALERT Do not treat low-cost origin replacement as plug-and-play. If your customer label, origin declaration, residue protocol or factory audit is strict, lock the paperwork before you lock the price.

Practical takeaway: if you are EU-bound, separate quote requests by origin, color, crop year, testing requirement and label claim. Otherwise you will compare numbers that are not actually comparable.

🌐 Where the walnut is coming from

🇺🇸 USA 2026/27 crop: 669,500 MT in-shell Total supply: 782,900 MT in-shell Driver: Lower new crop, strong export draw.

🇨🇳 China 2025/26 crop: 1.55 MMT in-shell 2025 exports: 203,283 tons in-shell, 164,186 tons shelled Driver: Export machine keeps growing.

🇨🇱 Chile 2026/27 crop: 165,000 MT in-shell Prior USDA read: 150,500 MT in-shell for 2025/26 Driver: Southern Hemisphere quality window.

INC MAY 2026 Walnuts has the USA at 669,500 MT in-shell for 2026/27, as of 2026-05-20. That is lower than its 734,300 MT in-shell USA crop read for 2025/26, as of 2026-05-20. So California is still the key EU-quality origin, but buyers should not expect unlimited cheap clean product.

USDA FAS Beijing put China at 1.55 MMT in-shell for MY 2025/26, as of 2025-11-21, per USDA FAS. WITS also shows China exported 201,044 MT in-shell and 96,625.7 MT shelled in 2024, as of 2026-05-20 and 2026-05-18, per WITS in-shell and WITS shelled. INC MAY 2026 Walnuts then shows 2025 shelled exports jumping to 164,186 tons, as of 2026-05-20.

Chile is steadier. INC MAY 2026 Walnuts puts Chile 2026/27 production at 165,000 MT in-shell, as of 2026-05-20. USDA FAS Santiago had Chile MY 2025/26 production at 150,500 MT in-shell on 43,500 hectares planted, as of 2025-09-18, per USDA FAS Santiago.

📊 Who's buying what

Trade reads, 2024-2025/26, MT; shelled or in-shell basis noted by line

EU shelled	125,269 MT
EU in-shell	53,962 MT
Germany U.S.	41,184 MT
India imports	52,454 MT
Bulgaria use	10,864 MT

The EU remains the cleaner demand anchor. WITS shows 2024 EU shelled-walnut imports of 125,269 MT worth USD 620.655 million, and in-shell imports of 53,961.9 MT worth USD 134.570 million, as of 2026-05-13 and 2026-05-19, per WITS shelled and WITS in-shell.

Bulgaria is small but interesting. USDA FAS Sofia estimates MY 2024/25 walnut consumption at 10,864 MT, up 44% year over year, and forecasts MY 2025/26 consumption above 11,000 MT, as of 2026-02-24, per USDA FAS Sofia. That is kernel-led demand, not just snack trade.

💡 READING THE CHART EU is still the buyer to watch for kernels. India can surprise if duty changes. Bulgaria shows processor demand is alive when walnut inclusion works in bakery, confectionery and foodservice.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

• 🇺🇸 California had its warmest and driest March on record in 2026, with statewide March precipitation below 0.25 inch, as of 2026-03-31, per NOAA NCEI.
• 🇺🇸 Northern Sierra snowpack was only 6% of average on 2026-04-01, per California DWR.
• 🇺🇸 State Water Project allocation improved to 45% of requested supplies by 2026-05-15, per California DWR.
• 🇺🇸 Federal CVP south-of-Delta irrigation allocation rose to 20% of contract total on 2026-03-24, per U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
• 🇺🇸 California Walnut Commission said bloom was about 2 weeks earlier than normal, as of 2026-05-16, per California Walnuts.
• 🇮🇳 What INC MAY 2026 Walnuts is telling us: India FY 2025/26 true-origin imports included 10,462 MT from China, equal to 20.2% of true-origin imports, as of 2026-05-20. The declared-origin picture does not show the full flow.
• 🇮🇳 Per INC MAY 2026 Walnuts' latest read, India's walnut import duty remains 100%, with industry dialogue targeting 30%, as of 2026-05-20. If that moves, demand math changes fast.
• 🇺🇸 OFAC says U.S. sanctions do not prohibit agricultural-commodity trade from, to, or involving Russia, and lists Russia-related General License 6D for agricultural-commodity transactions, per OFAC and OFAC sanctions guidance. Still, payment and bank compliance are separate conversations.

✅ If I were you, I'd...

I would not panic-buy walnuts today. I also would not leave Q3 and Q4 uncovered if I needed EU-ready kernels, light color, or named-origin paperwork. The global crop is there. The right spec at the right shipment window is the tighter part.

✅ Split your coverage: nearby needs versus Q3/Q4 tenders. ✅ Ask origin first: USA, Chile and China are not interchangeable for every customer. ✅ Lock documents early: especially if you sell into EU retail or private label. ✅ Do not chase only the cheapest kernel: color, crop year and testing can erase the saving. ✅ Watch India duty: a move from 100% toward 30% would change demand tone quickly. ✅ Track California water and bloom: early crop signals can shift sentiment before objective numbers arrive. ✅ Keep China on the screen: it is now a major export lever, not just a domestic production story.

Bottom line: the practical move is to price and qualify the difficult specs sooner rather than wait for the global crop headline to do your job for you. Generic volume can still be worked. Premium, compliant, clean-origin kernels need earlier attention.

💬 Looking for something specific? Just hit reply — tell me what tonnage you need and when, and I'll come back to you with origins that fit your specs. Or copy-paste one of these: → "Send me EU-ready walnut kernel options for Q3" → "I need California vs Chile walnut comparison" → "Add me to weekly walnut market updates" → Reply to this email

Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.