June 2025 Hazelnut Market Report | Prices, Crop & Supply Trends
Hazelnut Market Update – May/June 2025
Frost Impact & Crop Outlook
Last month’s frost event across Turkey's key hazelnut regions sent ripples through the market. While initial reactions varied, the INC roundtable in Mallorca provided clarity with a revised estimate of 609,000 metric tons (inshell) — down sharply from the previous 760,000 MT forecast. Most of the trade has now aligned with this figure.
Fortunately, other origins — including Chile, Italy, and smaller producers — are projecting stronger yields, which will partially offset Turkey’s reduced volume.
Looking at the current season, supply remains stable, especially after TMO released much of its inventory in April. However, prices surged from under 300 TL/kg to over 420 TL/kg before settling around 400 TL/kg.
Weather has been favorable so far. Last year’s extreme spring heat is not repeating, and stink bug damage appears limited for now. A more precise view of the Turkish crop is expected following a fruit count exercise in late June or early July.
Market Dynamics & Pricing Sentiment
The frost drove short-term panic buying, especially among buyers who were still uncovered for Q3. While most of the market is now covered for that period — aside from some smaller and retail players — long-term procurement has slowed. Higher prices have pushed hazelnuts above budgeted levels for many large-scale confectionery and ingredient buyers.
Still, demand is expected to rebound gradually, as prices show signs of stabilizing and new crop interest builds.
That said, local Turkish demand remains weak, with both retailers and manufacturers trimming their full-year tender volumes.
Export pace remains solid, reaching 260,000 MT, though this is expected to taper through Q3.
Key Factors Influencing the Market
Despite adequate current supply, several elements are keeping prices firm:
- Crop losses from frost are now estimated at roughly 20%.
- Hoarding behavior has been observed across the supply chain, restricting availability.
- Ferrero and other major buyers may enter the market early due to shorter expected supply.
On the other hand, the TMO’s April inventory release and strong output from Chile and Italy are helping balance the global picture.
What Buyers Should Consider
📉 While prices have come off their recent highs, they remain significantly elevated year-on-year.
📦 Most buyers are covered through Q3, but new crop coverage remains light.
📈 Watch for price action following the fruit count and Ferrero’s seasonal entry.
📬 Reach out to discuss coverage timing, available volumes, and strategic offers.
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