Macadamia Market Report 2026/27: Larger Crop, Limited Whole Kernel Supply, and China’s Market Impact

Macadamia Market Report 2026/27: Bigger Crop, Tight Wholes, China Swing

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, kernel or in-shell basis as labelled unless I flag otherwise. Data as of 2026-05-25 — full sourcing in the Source Notes at the end.

🎯 The 30-second version

South Africa is pencilled at 93,000-95,000 MT in-shell and Australia at 56,000-58,000 MT in-shell. Bigger crop, yes. Easy market, no.

If you're buying whole kernels for Q3/Q4, or you're EU-bound with strict quality specs, this matters. Three minutes here saves you chasing the wrong grade at the wrong time.

▲ South Africa crop 93,000-95,000 MT 2026 estimate, in-shell basis. Recovery crop, quality key.	▲ Australia crop 56,000-58,000 MT 2026 estimate, in-shell basis. Better supply, FX bite.
▲ EU imports 10,887 MT 2025 EU shelled macadamia imports. Premium demand still there.	▼ China duty 12% → 0% Reported duty cut for South African in-shell and kernels into China. Bullish if buyers move.

📋 What's actually happening

OFI says macadamia pricing came into 2026 firm because carry-in inventory was tight. That's the hangover from a short 2025 crop in the big Southern Hemisphere origins.

OFI also says bigger crops are coming through South Africa and Australia as harvests accelerate. Here's the thing. More nuts do not automatically mean more premium wholes. Crack-out, style mix, moisture, rancidity risk and breakage decide what buyers can actually use.

CBI is still constructive on Europe. Demand is rising again after the inflation pause, with health positioning and lower export prices supporting 3-5% annual growth. Retail snacking is still the main pull, but ingredient demand is building in ice cream, bakery, cereals, bars and premium chocolate.

China is the swing buyer. OFI flags slow in-shell buying, with buyers waiting for softer prices. At the same time, the South African duty cut gives China a cleaner reason to step back in if price levels feel right.

Put it together: the market is not short like last year, but good wholes are still the battleground. That matters most if your spec needs Style 0-2, bright colour, low peroxide, long shelf life and clean EU paperwork.

🌍 The macadamia supply picture

Carry-in is tight. New-crop flow is improving. The next market question is not just volume. It's absorption.

Quick balance read:

• Opening stock: tight carry-in inventory is still supporting nearby firmness.
• 2026 crop: South Africa is estimated at 93,000-95,000 MT in-shell. Australia is estimated at 56,000-58,000 MT in-shell. Kenya and other origins are expected higher year on year, helped by rainfall.
• Availability: near-term supply is still tighter in whole kernels, while lower grades should loosen first as harvesting and processing ramp.
• Ending stock: too early to call. It depends on China in-shell buying, EU ingredient pull, and how much of the bigger crop cracks into premium whole styles.

💡 What it means Don't buy macadamias off headline crop size alone. One kilo of kernel is roughly two kilos of in-shell, and style mix matters. Whole-kernel buyers should treat this as a grade-specific market, not a bulk volume market.

🌍 What's going on in South Africa

• Crop: OFI has South Africa at 93,000-95,000 MT in-shell for 2026.
• Weather: heavy rainfall is a processing and quality watchpoint, not a simple bullish or bearish signal.
• China route: the reported duty cut from 12% to 0% on South African in-shell and kernels can support demand if Chinese buyers stop waiting.
• Grade pricing: public handler pricing shows whole kernels up 4.4% year on year, while halves and pieces are down 8.7%.

South Africa is the origin everyone is watching because it has scale, China relevance and quality sensitivity all at once. The headline crop is bigger, but the commercial value sits in the crack-out. If heavy rain affects drying, storage or kernel colour, premium whole availability can stay tight even while total in-shell volume looks comfortable.

The grade split is the key. Whole-kernel pricing is firm because buyers still want premium snack quality. Halves and pieces are softer because ingredient users have more leverage. If you're making bars, bakery inclusions or chocolate where visual whole count is less critical, this is where the relative value sits.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers — read this)

Macadamias are high-fat nuts. That is the charm and the headache. Oxidation, rancidity, moisture pickup and poor storage will hurt you faster than in some other tree nuts. Long voyages, warm warehouses and slow clearance make that worse.

Australia's residue record is strong. The official National Residue Survey put macadamia compliance with Australian standards at 98.7% for 2024/25. Good number. Still, EU buyers should not treat origin reputation as a substitute for lot-level paperwork.

There are also microbiology reminders. Official recall history includes raw macadamia recalls linked to potential Salmonella. That does not mean the category is broken. It means raw nut programs need proper supplier approval, COA discipline, environmental monitoring and validated kill-step thinking where applicable.

⚠️ EU compliance watch Aflatoxin controls remain part of the tree-nut import playbook. Macadamias are not usually the headline risk versus some other nuts, but EU-bound cargo still needs clean sampling logic, traceability, moisture control and documentation that matches the lot.

Practical takeaway: if you're EU-bound, don't just ask for price and style. Ask for peroxide value, free fatty acids, moisture, microbiology, pesticide residue status, shelf-life basis, pack date, storage conditions and lot traceability before you confirm.

🌐 Where the macadamia is coming from

🇿🇦 South Africa 2026 crop: 93,000-95,000 MT in-shell China duty: 12% to 0% reported cut Driver: Big recovery crop, but rain and whole-kernel outturn matter.

🇦🇺 Australia 2026 crop: 56,000-58,000 MT in-shell 2025 base: 43,800 MT in-shell at 3.5% moisture Driver: Better flowering and young plantings entering production.

🇰🇪 Kenya Weather: Adequate rainfall and healthy nut development signalled Policy: Raw and in-shell export restriction remains key Driver: Domestic processing policy shapes kernel availability.

Australia looks much better than last year. AMS reported a low 2025 crop of 43,800 MT in-shell at 3.5% moisture, then pointed to strong flowering, good crop retention and 2019-2022 plantings moving into bearing or full production. That's structural, not just lucky weather.

The catch on Australia is cost. OFI flags weaker USD versus AUD as a pressure point for export offers. So even if physical supply improves, landed price relief may not be clean if currency keeps working against buyers.

Kenya is more about policy than crop size. AFA continues to manage harvesting windows and maturity controls, and the raw nut export restriction keeps the market tilted toward domestic processing. If that policy changes, kernel flows can shift quickly. If it doesn't, buyers need to think in terms of Kenyan processed kernel availability, not easy in-shell trade.

📊 Who's buying what

Demand indicators, kernel basis where stated

Europe	10,887 MT shelled imports
EU growth	3-5% annual demand guide

Europe is still quality-led. Retail snacking does the heavy lifting, but ingredient users are getting more important. Think cookies, cereals, granola bars, protein bars, ice cream toppings, bakery and premium chocolate.

China is different. China can absorb in-shell fast when the price is right, but OFI says buyers have been slow, waiting for softer levels. That means China is not just demand. China is timing. If China waits, lower grades can soften. If China steps in hard, the whole market tone changes.

💡 Reading the chart Europe gives the quality floor. China gives the volume shock. If both are active at the same time, don't expect premium wholes to behave like a surplus item.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

• Freight: container costs are still a landed-cost risk. Drewry's World Container Index was 2,712 USD per 40ft container, with Shanghai-New York at 4,317 USD/40ft and Shanghai-Los Angeles at 3,385 USD/40ft. Drewry also flagged blank sailings and a 2,000 USD/40ft peak season surcharge on Transpacific eastbound cargo.
• FX: public FX data backs OFI's warning on Australia. AUD strength versus USD can make Australian offers feel sticky even when the crop is bigger.
• Weather: NOAA has an El Nino Watch, with El Nino likely to emerge mid-year and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter. Watch rainfall and heat stress knock-ons across origins.
• Australia pest pressure: Hort Innovation flagged high late-season fruit spotting bug damage in macadamias. That is a quality and outturn watchpoint.
• South Africa water: public dam data did not show an immediate Mpumalanga storage problem, with the provincial average above full supply.
• Kenya rain: the long-rains outlook was broadly supportive for central highland macadamia areas.
• 🇪🇺 EU: aflatoxin maximum levels, sampling rules and special import conditions remain part of the compliance map for tree nuts.
• 🇺🇸 U.S.: imported food needs FDA facility registration and prior notice, and FDA can inspect or detain food at port.
• 🇺🇸 U.S. phytosanitary: APHIS requirements are commodity- and origin-specific, so treatment and entry rules need checking against the exact origin and form.

✅ If I were you, I'd...

I'd stop treating 2026 like a simple price-down year. The crop recovery is real. But the easy conclusion is dangerous. The market is splitting by style, quality and destination.

✅ Cover premium wholes earlier if your product cannot switch to halves or pieces. ✅ Ask origin and style separately because in-shell volume does not equal whole-kernel availability. ✅ Use halves and pieces aggressively if you're in bakery, bars, fillings or chocolate inclusions. ✅ Keep China on your screen because delayed buying can turn into fast demand if prices soften enough. ✅ Build quality clauses into contracts around moisture, peroxide, FFA, colour, microbiology and shelf life. ✅ Price freight separately on longer routes because surcharge risk is back in the landed-cost conversation. ✅ For EU-bound cargo, document first and negotiate after. Clean paperwork is not optional.

If your spec is flexible, the practical move is to shop lower styles sooner rather than waiting for everyone to discover the same value. If your spec is premium whole, the practical move is to secure approved lots sooner rather than assuming the bigger crop will solve it for you.

💬 Looking for something specific? Just hit reply — tell me what tonnage you need and when, and I'll come back to you with origins that fit your specs. Or copy-paste one of these: → "Send me Q3/Q4 macadamia kernel options by style" → "I need EU-ready macadamia lots with full COA" → "Show me halves and pieces for ingredient use" → Reply to this email

Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

🔗 Source Notes

Every figure above, with its exact date and link, consolidated here for compliance.

1. OFI April 2026 Nuts Market Report — firm pricing, tight carry-in inventories, 2026 South Africa and Australia crop estimates, China demand uncertainty, China duty cut, grade availability and AUD pressure — as of 2026-04-01 — https://shop.ofi.com/nuts-by-ofi-marketreport-april-2026
2. Australian Macadamias / AMS crop outlook — Australia 2026 climate-based crop recovery, flowering, crop retention and plantings entering bearing — as of 2026-03-10 — https://australianmacadamias.org/industry/news/cautious-optimism-for-2026-australian-macadamia-crop
3. Australian Macadamias / AMS 2025 final crop — Australia 2025 crop of 43,800 MT in-shell at 3.5% moisture and AMHA receipts basis — as of 2025-12-02 — https://australianmacadamias.org/industry/news/2025-australian-macadamia-crop-finalised-following-challenging-season
4. Farmers Weekly South Africa — South African 2026 whole-kernel and halves/pieces public handler price movements and China tariff context — as of 2026-03-13 — https://www.farmersweekly.co.za/agri-news/south-africa/macadamia-prices-in-2026-whole-kernels-rise-but-halves-slip/
5. Kenya Agriculture and Food Authority — macadamia harvesting and trading window, maturity controls and in-shell export authority framework — as of 2026-01-29 — https://www.afa.go.ke/updates/opening-of-the-seasonal-macadamia-nuts-harvesting-and-trading-window/
6. Kenya raw macadamia export restriction notice — continued prohibition on raw and in-shell macadamia exports through or from Kenya — as of 2025-07-18 — https://pressrelease.co.ke/news/420
7. CBI Europe macadamia market potential — European demand growth, health trend support, retail snacking and ingredient applications — as of 2026-01-22 — https://www.cbi.eu/market-information/processed-fruit-vegetables-edible-nuts/macadamia-nuts/market-potential
8. Mundus Agri EU macadamia import report — 2025 EU shelled macadamia imports of 10,887 MT — as of 2026-01-26 — https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/macadamias-eu-demand-rise.n36439.html
9. World Macadamia Organisation consumer trend note — premium healthy-snacking and wholefood positioning — as of 2026-02-05 — https://www.worldmacadamia.com/healthy-fats-wholefoods-and-permission-to-indulge-inside-the-future-of-food/
10. NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO discussion — El Nino Watch and mid-year emergence probability — as of 2026-05-14 — https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_may2026/ensodisc.pdf
11. Hort Innovation fruit spotting bug release — Australian macadamia pest-pressure signal — as of 2026-04-24 — https://www.horticulture.com.au/hort-innovation/news-events/media-releases/2026/leading-a-coordinated-fight-against-fruit-spotting-bugs/
12. South Africa Department of Water and Sanitation — Mpumalanga dam storage level context — as of 2026-05-06 — https://www.gov.za/news/media-statements/water-and-sanitation-decline-mpumalanga-dam-water-levels-06-may-2026
13. Kenya Meteorological Department seasonal outlook — long-rains outlook for highland regions relevant to macadamias — as of 2026-02-05 — https://meteo.go.ke/news/technical-statement-from-the-twelfth-national-climate-outlook-forum-ncof12/
14. European Commission aflatoxin guidance — EU aflatoxin maximum levels, sampling and special import conditions framework — as of 2026-05-25 — https://food.ec.europa.eu/food-safety/chemical-safety/contaminants/catalogue/aflatoxins_en
15. U.S. FDA imported foods guidance — FDA registration, prior notice, inspection and detention framework for imported foods — as of 2026-05-25 — https://www.fda.gov/importing-food-products-united-states
16. USDA APHIS plant import requirements — commodity- and origin-specific phytosanitary treatment and ACIR requirement framework — as of 2026-04-22 — https://www.aphis.usda.gov/plant-imports/how-to-import
17. FDA Terrafina macadamia recall — official Salmonella-related raw macadamia recall example — as of 2024-06-28 — https://www.fda.gov/safety/recalls-market-withdrawals-safety-alerts/sunco-frenchie-llc-recalls-terrafina-brand-macadamia-raw-because-possible-health-risk
18. CFIA Dan-D Pak macadamia recall — official Salmonella-related raw macadamia recall example — as of 2026-01-28 — https://recalls-rappels.canada.ca/en/alert-recall/dan-pak-brand-raw-macadamia-nuts-recalled-due-salmonella-0
19. Australia National Residue Survey macadamia results — 98.7% compliance with Australian standards — as of 2026-05-23 — https://www.agriculture.gov.au/agriculture-land/farm-food-drought/food/nrs/nrs-results-publications/macadamia
20. Drewry World Container Index — freight rates, blank sailings and surcharge risk — as of 2026-05-21 — https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry
21. Federal Reserve H.10 exchange rates — AUD/USD reference supporting currency pressure context — as of 2026-05-18 — https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/current/

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.