Dried Apricots Market 2026/27: Turkey Crop Rebounds, Old-Crop Still Tight

Dried Apricots Market 2026/27: Turkey Crop Rebounds, Old-Crop Still Tight

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, dried-apricot MT unless I flag otherwise. Data as of 2026-05-25 — full sourcing in the Source Notes at the end.

🎯 The 30-second version

132,840 MT. That's INC May 2026's preliminary first estimate for 2026/27 world dried apricot production. Bigger crop, yes. Comfortable market, not yet.

If you're planning Q3+ coverage, shipping EU-bound fruit, or trying to replace Turkish supply with Central Asian origins, this one matters. Three minutes here should save you from mixing old-crop tightness with new-crop optimism.

▲ WORLD CROP 132,840 MT INC May 2026 preliminary 2026/27 production read. Bigger, not loose yet.	▼ OLD-CROP BUFFER 4,000 MT INC May 2026 ending stock for 2025/26 world balance. Nearby stays tight.
▼ TURKEY EXPORT PACE 20,728.903 MT Whole dried-apricot export registrations, versus 57,548.337 MT prior period. Old crop rationed.	▲ TURKEY CROP 75,000 MT INC May 2026 preliminary 2026/27 Turkey production read. Recovery is the story.

📋 What's actually happening

INC May 2026 data shows the 2026/27 crop bouncing back hard from last season's frost disaster. World production is pencilled at 132,840 MT versus 87,330 MT in 2025/26. That's the headline everyone will quote.

Here's the catch: the carry-in is tiny. INC May 2026 has 2025/26 ending stock at only 4,000 MT, after world consumption of 134,330 MT. So even with a bigger new crop, the market doesn't start with a fat cushion.

EIB data shows how tight Turkey has been. Whole dried-apricot registrations were 20,728.903 MT at an average 9,286 USD/MT, versus 57,548.337 MT at 4,950 USD/MT in the comparable prior period. That tells you exactly why buyers have been cautious and sellers have not been chasing.

Malatya officials still matter more than almost anyone here. Official provincial material puts Malatya at about 70% of world dried apricot production, while the agriculture directorate describes 65-80% of world dried apricots as Malatya apricots. When Malatya sneezes, the global market gets a fever.

Put it together: new-crop availability should improve, but old-crop tightness and quality segregation still keep this from being a simple bearish reset. That matters most if you're EU-bound, sulphite-sensitive, or need uniform colour and size.

🌍 The dried apricots supply picture

Looking at INC May 2026's numbers, the global balance is not as relaxed as the crop rebound sounds.

2025/26 world balance:

• Beginning stock: 51,000 MT
• Production: 87,330 MT
• Total supply: 138,330 MT
• Ending stock: 4,000 MT
• Apparent consumption: 134,330 MT

2026/27 world balance, preliminary first estimate:

• Beginning stock: 4,000 MT
• Production: 132,840 MT
• Total supply: 136,840 MT
• Ending stock: 7,500 MT
• Implied disappearance: 129,340 MT

Worth knowing: the 2026/27 total supply line is actually slightly below 2025/26 total supply, because the crop recovery starts from almost no carryover. That's the bit easy to miss.

💡 WHAT IT MEANS If the Turkish harvest dries cleanly, buyers get relief. But if colour, sizing, sulphur treatment, or drying weather disappoints, the market can stay split: cheaper fruit on paper, but still tight for the exact specs manufacturers actually need.

🇹🇷 What's going on in Türkiye

• 2026/27 production: 75,000 MT, preliminary INC May 2026 read.
• 2025/26 production: 2,000 MT after the frost-hit season.
• 2025/26 Turkey supply: 47,000 MT, mostly old carry-in after a 45,000 MT beginning stock.
• 2026/27 Turkey supply: 77,000 MT, with 5,000 MT ending stock pencilled.
• Whole dried-apricot registrations: 20,728.903 MT versus 57,548.337 MT prior comparable period.
• Average export unit value: 9,286 USD/MT versus 4,950 USD/MT prior comparable period.
• Calendar-2024 export baseline: around 76,439-76,889 MT and roughly USD 404-411 million.

Malatya's 2025 frost was real and severe. The Governorate documented night temperatures down to -6 °C, and the official support scheme later set apricot loss payments at TRY 5,500 per decare. That explains the old-crop hole.

For 2026, the spring story is different. Public trade reporting said feared frost damage had not materialised by mid-April, while the main official post-bloom damage note was hail across about 20,390 decares, with damage rates ranging 5-40% in the assessed areas. That's damage, yes. But it is not the same event as last year's broad frost shock.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers — read this)

Here's the thing with dried apricots: sulphured and natural/no-SO2 are not interchangeable. They behave differently, look different, price differently, and move through different customer channels.

For sulphured fruit, colour and SO2 management drive the commercial value. For natural fruit, stability and darkening are the watchpoints. In both cases, buyers should keep moisture, mould, foreign matter, pesticide residue status, traceability, and lot consistency front and centre.

EU-bound buyers need to keep the paperwork clean. EU organic dried-fruit imports need recognised control arrangements and certificate-of-inspection documentation. General EU food law still applies, and official controls are risk-list driven rather than a blanket border-control system for every non-animal-origin food.

⚠️ EU WATCHPOINT Don't treat SO2 as a back-office detail. For EU retail and ingredient customers, sulphite declaration, certificate consistency, and lot-level traceability can decide whether a cheap offer is actually usable.

Practical takeaway: if you're buying for manufacturing, lock the spec before chasing price. Size, colour, sulphured versus natural, SO2 target, moisture, and destination paperwork need to be agreed in the same conversation.

🌐 Where the dried apricots are coming from

🇹🇷 Türkiye 2026/27 crop: 75,000 MT preliminary Total supply: 77,000 MT Driver: Malatya rebound, but old-crop tightness still shapes tone.

🇮🇷 Iran 2026/27 crop: 18,000 MT preliminary Total supply: 19,000 MT Driver: Useful supply, but sanctions and banking friction limit easy routing.

Uzbekistan 2026/27 crop: 15,000 MT preliminary Total supply: 15,500 MT Driver: Alternative origin, but not a full Turkey replacement.

Türkiye is still the price-setter because Malatya is structurally central. The official share estimates are too large to ignore, and the normal-year export baseline around 76-77k MT shows what the world usually expects from Turkey.

Iran matters for buyers who can handle the compliance channel. OFAC's TSRA framework remains a core constraint for Iran-related agricultural trade, especially around licensing procedures and limits involving Iranian-bank letters of credit and correspondent relationships.

Uzbekistan remains the obvious alternative origin to watch. But INC May 2026 has Uzbekistan's 2026/27 crop at 15,000 MT, down from 25,000 MT in 2025/26, so it helps the blend book more than it changes the whole market.

📊 Who's buying what

INC / EIB / shipment reads, dried-apricot MT

World 25/26	134,330
World 26/27	129,340
Turkey 2024	76,889
Turkey reg.	20,728.903
EU-bound	6,420

💡 READING THE CHART This is a buying-pressure chart, not a destination share table. The message is simple: global disappearance stayed high, Turkey's normal export engine is large, and current old-crop registrations show how little fruit was available after the frost.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

• 🇹🇷 Weather: MGM's May-July guidance did not show a broad below-normal rainfall signal for Türkiye. Later outlooks leaned near-normal rainfall nationally, with warmer-than-normal risk in parts of the country.
• 🇹🇷 Water: recent peer-reviewed work on the Hacıhaliloğlu cultivar flags declining precipitation, irrigation shortages, and drought stress as material long-term risks for Malatya apricot production.
• 🇹🇷 Frost window: scientific work on Malatya cultivars identifies April post-bloom as the lowest-resistance stage, which is why traders obsess over budbreak through fruit set.
• 🇹🇷 Insurance: TARSİM provides an official channel for apricot frost-risk coverage, with damage notifications filed through TARSİM channels.
• 🇺🇸 Iran compliance: OFAC TSRA guidance still matters for agricultural trade involving Iran, especially licensing and banking routes.
• 🇪🇺 Organic: EU organic imports need recognised controls and certificate-of-inspection documentation.
• 🇪🇺 Border controls: EU official controls for non-animal-origin foods are risk-list driven, so compliance is not just one universal border check. The product, origin, risk listing, and documentation all matter.

✅ If I were you, I'd...

I'd treat this as a transition market. Don't panic-buy like 2025/26 never ends. But don't sit back thinking the bigger crop estimate automatically solves spec availability either.

✅ Split sulphured and natural demand. Don't compare them as one market. ✅ Cover EU specs early. SO2, colour, residue status, and paperwork can narrow the usable pool fast. ✅ Watch drying weather. A good crop still needs clean drying to become good export fruit. ✅ Use Uzbekistan carefully. Good alternative, not a full substitute for Turkish volume and specs. ✅ Keep Iran compliance separate. The fruit may exist, but payment and routing are their own job. ✅ Ask for lot-level clarity. Size, colour, moisture, SO2, and origin documents before price comparison. ✅ Plan Q3/Q4 in layers. Take some coverage, then add once physical new-crop quality is clearer.

Bottom line: the practical move is to map your Q3/Q4 needs sooner rather than wait for the harvest headline to turn into real, sorted, compliant export stock.

💬 Looking for something specific? Just hit reply — tell me what tonnage you need and when, and I'll come back to you with origins that fit your specs. Or copy-paste one of these: → "Send me Q3 Turkish sulphured apricot indications" → "I need natural/no-SO2 apricots for EU delivery" → "Compare Turkey vs Uzbekistan for diced apricots" → Reply to this email

Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

🔗 Source Notes

Every figure above, with its exact date and link, consolidated here for compliance.

1. INC May 2026 — 2026/27 world dried apricot balance sheet — world, Turkey, Iran, Uzbekistan production, supply, ending stock and consumption figures — as of 2026-05-25 — Tier 0 / INC May 2026, no public link
2. Aegean Exporters' Association statistics — Turkey whole dried-apricot registrations — 20,728.903 MT at 9,286 USD/MT versus 57,548.337 MT at 4,950 USD/MT — as of 2026-04-25 — https://statistics.eib.org.tr/44GIDA02_20260425.htm
3. World Bank WITS — Turkey dried apricot exports — calendar-2024 export value and volume, 76,439.1 MT and USD 404.491 million — as of 2026-05-25 — https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/TUR/year/2024/tradeflow/Exports/partner/ALL/product/081310
4. Malatya Governorate economy profile — Malatya production share and 2024 export baseline — Malatya share around 70% and 76,889 MT / USD 410.889 million exports — as of 2026-05-25 — https://www.malatya.gov.tr/ekonomi
5. Malatya Agriculture Directorate — Malatya dried apricot world share — Malatya apricots described as 65-80% of world dried apricots — as of 2026-05-25 — https://malatya.tarimorman.gov.tr/Menu/17/Malatya-Kayisisi
6. FreshPlaza — Turkey 2025/26 export pace — 20,007 MT exports versus 55,479 MT prior period — as of 2026-03-10 — https://www.freshplaza.com/north-america/article/9818191/turkish-malatya-apricot-crop-recovers-after-2025-frost-damage/
7. Commodity Board — EU shipments and Northwest Europe price tone — EU-bound shipments of 6,420 MT, 60% lower year on year, and FCA diced apricot reference — as of 2026-05-02 — https://commodity-board.com/turkish-dried-apricots-ease-slightly-as-eu-demand-stays-cautious/
8. Malatya Governorate — April 2025 frost event — night temperatures down to -6 °C affecting apricots and other fruit trees — as of 2025-04-12 — https://www.malatya.gov.tr/vali-yavuzdan-ilimizde-meydana-gelen-don-olayina-iliskin-basin-aciklamasi
9. Malatya Agriculture Directorate — 2025 frost support scheme — TRY 5,500 per decare support payment for apricot losses — as of 2025-09-14 — https://malatya.tarimorman.gov.tr/Haber/902/2025-Yili-Zirai-Don-Hasari-Destekleme-Odemesi-Resmi-Gazetede-Yayimlandi
10. Malatya Governorate — April 2026 hail damage — preliminary hail damage across about 20,390 decares with 5-40% damage levels — as of 2026-04-27 — https://www.malatya.gov.tr/dolu-zarari-on-hasar-tespit-calismasi-hakkinda-basin-aciklamasi
11. Mundus Agri — 2026 frost and market tone — frost had not struck Turkey so far and export-grade goods were sold out/stable — as of 2026-05-19 — https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/dried-apricots-global-crop-significantly-larger.n37226.html
12. Turkish State Meteorological Service MGM — May-July seasonal outlook — near-normal national rainfall guidance and warmer-than-normal risk in parts of Türkiye — as of 2026-05-07 — https://www.mgm.gov.tr/tahmin/mevsimlik-tahmin.aspx?a=1
13. NOAA CPC — ENSO advisory — El Niño emergence probability and winter continuation outlook — as of 2026-05-14 — https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html?os=f
14. WMO — global seasonal climate update — weak Europe/Africa rainfall signal limiting direct inference for apricot origins — as of 2026-04-21 — https://wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-may-june-july-2026
15. BMC Plant Biology / Springer — Malatya Hacıhaliloğlu drought risk — declining precipitation, water scarcity, and drought stress risk — as of 2026-01-03 — https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12870-025-07983-9
16. ISHS Acta Horticulturae — apricot frost resistance work — April post-bloom identified as lowest resistance stage — as of 2006-01-01 — https://www.ishs.org/ishs-article/701_37/
17. TARSİM — apricot frost insurance channel — optional frost coverage and damage notification framework — as of 2026-05-25 — https://www.tarsim.gov.tr/subPage/crop-insurance
18. OFAC TSRA guidance — Iran agricultural trade compliance — agricultural export licensing procedures and banking constraints — as of 2026-05-24 — https://ofac.treasury.gov/ofac-license-application-page/trade-sanctions-reform-and-export-enhancement-act-of-2000-tsra-program
19. EU Regulation 2018/848 and import control rules — organic import documentation — certificate-of-inspection requirement for organic consignments — as of 2018-06-14 — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX%3A32018R0848%3AEN%3ANOT
20. European Commission official controls and Regulation 2019/1793 — EU import control structure — risk-list driven controls for non-animal-origin foods — as of 2026-02-25 — https://food.ec.europa.eu/horizontal-topics/official-controls-and-enforcement/imported-products_en

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.