Macadamias May 2025: Cautious Buyers, Firm Prices, Fresh Crop Flow

Macadamia Market Report – May 2025

Global Crop Updates, Kernel Pricing Trends & In-Shell Insights

🌍 Global Macadamia Supply Update

The 2025 macadamia season is well underway across major growing origins. As of May, approximately 50% of the crop has been harvested in Australia, South Africa, and East Africa.

  • Australia and parts of East Africa report lower yields due to rain-related delays and quality issues.
  • A revised macadamia crop forecast is expected soon, which will help clarify total availability for the season.

💰 Kernel & In-Shell Macadamia Price Trends

  • Kernel Prices remain firm across key markets due to:

    • Tight inventories
    • Steady demand from global buyers
    • Retailers in Europe finalizing 2025 tender volumes

  • In-Shell (NIS) Prices rose slightly in early May as processors rushed to secure volumes.

    • However, prices may soften as harvesting accelerates and crop flow improves.
    • China, holding surplus inventory from 2024, has started buying cautiously this season.

📍 Regional Crop & Market Highlights

🇿🇦 South Africa

  • 2025 forecast: +8% YoY → 90,000 MT DNIS
  • Cracking started in April to meet strong kernel demand
  • Increasing NIS availability for export to China, the world’s largest in-shell market

🇦🇺 Australia

  • Crop growth: +7–8% projected
  • Rain damage has impacted quality and delayed harvest
  • Farm gate prices are up ~20% vs 2024 due to positive kernel pricing outlook
  • China reduced buying due to higher Australian pricing

🇰🇪 Kenya

  • 70% of crop harvested by May; shipments ongoing
  • Continued ban on in-shell exports supports local processing
  • 2024 challenges caused by high NIS prices are being addressed through government controls
  • Industry aims for stable farm gate pricing and higher kernel export volumes in 2025

🔍 Outlook for H2 2025

  • Kernel pricing is expected to remain firm through Q2 as inventory remains tight.
  • In-shell prices may soften in H2 depending on China’s import pace and domestic crop progress (expected Aug–Sep).
  • Australia and South Africa are positioned to boost exports as crop flow improves.

✅ Key Takeaways for B2B Buyers & Processors

  • The macadamia kernel market remains competitive — secure volumes early.
  • Monitor China’s behavior closely: their buying pace will influence in-shell pricing.
  • Australia and South Africa continue to lead in quality and scale, while Kenya focuses on stabilizing local processing.
Constantinos Cardassilaris