Pistachios Market Report 2026/27: Tight Supply, Strong Exports, EU Aflatoxin Risk

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, in-shell basis unless I flag otherwise. Data as of 2026-06-08 — full sourcing in the Source Notes at the end.

🎯 The 30-second version

World 2026/27 pistachio crop is pencilled at 701,050 MT preliminary. That is the number everyone should have on the screen.

If you're covering Q3/Q4, shipping EU-bound goods, or trying to decide how much California risk to carry, this is the one to read. Three minutes now beats chasing offers when specs tighten.

▼ WORLD CROP
701,050 MT
2026/27 preliminary crop, down from 1,101,740 MT.
Smaller crop, tighter buffer.
▼ USA CROP
350,000 MT
2026/27 preliminary U.S. crop read after a massive 2025 crop.
California becomes the swing.
▲ U.S. EXPORTS
298,105.57 MT
U.S. export shipments through April.
Demand is still pulling.
▼ WORLD ENDING STOCK
123,400 MT
2026/27 preliminary ending stock versus 239,770 MT in 2025/26.
Less room for mistakes.

📋 What's actually happening

INC CONGRESS data shows a big reset. World 2025/26 crop was marked at 1,101,740 MT, with total supply at 1,312,740 MT. The preliminary 2026/27 crop drops to 701,050 MT, and total supply drops to 940,820 MT. That's not a small trim. That's a different market.

USDA's calling 2025/26 U.S. production at 712,682 MT, exports at 425,000 MT, domestic use at 225,000 MT, and ending stocks at 130,771 MT. So the old-crop year was not short. The issue is the bridge into the next crop and how much quality, size, and open-shell supply is actually usable.

Meridian Growers says April YTD U.S. shipments were running +19.9% year on year on a pounds basis, with exports +24.7%. That's the part that matters. A big crop did not sit quietly. It moved.

What OFI Nuts Market & Crop Update - Global May 2026 is telling us: April shipments were down versus last April, but YTD was still up hard, and the 2026 U.S. crop was framed around an off-year drop from the 2025 monster. OFI also flags demand moving beyond in-shell into kernels, ingredients, and foodservice. That's sticky demand, not just holiday snacking.

Put it together: the market is not short today because nobody grew pistachios. It's tight because the next crop read is smaller while export demand already ate through the easy comfort. That matters most if you need EU-compliant lots, bright kernel colour, or firm delivery windows.

🌍 The pistachios supply picture

Looking at INC CONGRESS's numbers, the global balance goes from comfortable to much less forgiving.

  • 2025/26 opening stock: 211,000 MT
  • 2025/26 crop: 1,101,740 MT
  • 2025/26 total supply: 1,312,740 MT
  • 2025/26 ending stock: 239,770 MT
  • 2026/27 opening stock: 239,770 MT
  • 2026/27 crop preliminary: 701,050 MT
  • 2026/27 total supply preliminary: 940,820 MT
  • 2026/27 ending stock preliminary: 123,400 MT

Here's the thing. Carry-in helps, but it doesn't fully solve a crop drop of that size. The world starts 2026/27 with more stock than it started 2025/26, but the new crop is pencilled much lower. So the buffer gets spent.

USDA also puts 2025/26 global consumption around 1,062,000 MT, with the EU at 247,000 MT consumption and 210,000 MT imports. China is still a big import market at 125,000 MT forecast imports. India is forecast at 60,000 MT. These are not tiny demand sinks.

💡 WHAT IT MEANS
Don't just ask if there are pistachios. Ask which origin, which size, which open-shell ratio, which aflatoxin result, and which delivery month. In this setup, the headline tonnage can look fine while the exact spec you need gets tight first.

🇺🇸 What's going on in California

  • 2025 utilized in-shell production: 1.58 billion lb, equal to about 716,680 MT.
  • Bearing acres: 521,000 acres.
  • Yield: 1.52 tons per acre.
  • Crop value: USD 3.9184 billion.
  • April YTD total shipments: 373,431.66 MT.
  • April YTD exports: 298,105.57 MT.
  • April YTD domestic shipments: 75,326.09 MT.
  • Europe YTD U.S. shipments: 110,411.32 MT, versus 87,908.47 MT last year.

California had the crop. No debate there. NASS shows 2025 as a massive production year, and ACP shipment data shows the crop moved fast. The detail I care about is export reliance. With exports taking nearly 300,000 MT by April, the forward market is sensitive to any wobble in 2026 size, open-shell ratio, or quality.

China routing is also messy. ACP shows mainland China YTD shipments falling to 8,079.89 MT from 67,127.68 MT, while Hong Kong and Vietnam took much larger volumes. That doesn't mean Chinese demand vanished. It means trade flow, tariff structure, and routing matter more than the destination label on a quick dashboard.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers — read this)

The quality story is not just aflatoxin. It's also closed-shell, shelling stock, staining, and whether the lot is retail-pretty or ingredient-usable.

ACP receipts show roughly 293.7 million lb of closed-shell plus shelling-stock receipts for California 2025/26. Public OFI market colour had that same zone near 300 million lb, tied to heavy staining late in harvest. So yes, the crop was big. But not every pound is the same commercial animal.

For EU-bound product, aflatoxin is still the one that can ruin your week. EU maximum levels for pistachios to be sorted or physically treated before final consumer use are 12 micrograms/kg for aflatoxin B1 and 15 micrograms/kg total aflatoxins. For certain Türkiye-linked pistachio flows, EU identity and physical checks increased to 50%.

⚠️ EU ALERT
If you're buying for EU retail or manufacturing, don't treat origin paperwork as admin. Türkiye-origin pistachios and U.S.-origin pistachios dispatched from Türkiye face a higher check frequency. That can mean delays, extra costs, and rejections if the file is weak.

Practical takeaway: if you're EU-bound, pay for clean lots and clean documents. Cheap product with weak aflatoxin history is not cheap once it sits at the border.

🌐 Where the pistachios are coming from

🇺🇸 United States
2025/26 crop:
722,670 MT in INC balance

2026/27 crop preliminary:
350,000 MT

Driver: Alternate bearing, water, heat, and export pace.
🇮🇷 Iran
2025/26 crop:
225,000 MT in INC balance

2026/27 crop preliminary:
130,000 MT

Driver: Water stress, sanctions review, payment friction.
🇹🇷 Türkiye
2025/26 crop:
114,600 MT in INC balance

2026/27 crop preliminary:
156,400 MT

Driver: Better crop read, but EU aflatoxin checks bite.

The U.S. is still the commercial anchor. It has scale, shipping infrastructure, and the broadest buyer base. But if the 2026 crop lands near the preliminary read, sellers won't need to chase every bid.

Iran remains important, especially for India, Middle East demand, and buyers who like Iranian varieties. The catch is payment, sanctions review, and compliance. OFAC still keeps Iran-related agriculture transactions inside a sanctions framework, even where agricultural or humanitarian channels exist.

Türkiye is the odd one. INC's preliminary crop number is higher than last season, but EU buyers won't just see more availability. They'll see more paperwork risk too, because the check frequency has moved up for specific pistachio flows.

📊 Who's buying what

USDA 2025/26 forecasts, in-shell MT

EU
 247,000
China
 125,000 imports
India
 60,000 imports
UAE
 45,000 imports
Iraq
 22,000 imports
💡 READING THE CHART
Europe is the big visible buyer and the strictest compliance gate. China is still structurally huge, but tariff and routing issues can hide the final demand signal. India is where Iran and the U.S. both matter.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

  • 🇺🇸 Water matters in California. Statewide reservoir storage was 13.6 million acre-feet, at 68% of historical average, and groundwater remains the drought-year buffer for permanent crops.
  • 🇺🇸 Trade codes matter. HS 080251 is in-shell, HS 080252 is shelled or kernels, and USDA converts shelled pistachios at 2.0x to in-shell equivalent. Don't mix kernel and in-shell numbers without converting.
  • 🇪🇺 EU duty and checks matter. Plain fresh or dried pistachios sit under 0802 51 00 and 0802 52 00, with the EU MFN duty indicated at 1.6% for both lines, plus the aflatoxin control layer.
  • 🇨🇳 China tariff pressure matters. INC/CFNA tariff data shows China's basic MFN at 5%, but U.S.-origin pistachios at 30% including MFN under the listed update.
  • 🇨🇦 Canada is not business as usual for Iranian pistachios. CFIA says it will refuse entry of Iranian pistachios and pistachio products leaving Iran after the restriction date, with hold-and-test requirements for certain pre-cutoff or uncertain-origin goods.
  • 🇮🇷 Iran needs sanctions review. Food is not automatically simple. Payment route, counterparties, documents, and bank appetite all matter.

✅ If I were you, I'd...

I wouldn't panic-buy blindly. But I also wouldn't sit uncovered and hope the off-year solves itself. This is a market where the exact spec can tighten before the broad price screen tells you.

✅ Cover EU-compliant needs first, especially retail and ingredient lots with tight aflatoxin specs.
✅ Separate in-shell from kernels in every internal sheet, using the 2.0x kernel conversion when needed.
✅ Ask for open-shell and closed-shell detail, not just size and origin.
✅ Build optionality across U.S., Iran, and Türkiye, but don't ignore payment and border friction.
✅ Watch California weather and water through kernel fill, not only at harvest.
✅ Keep destination rules in the buying decision, because a cheap non-compliant lot is expensive inventory.
✅ For Q4 promotions, line up volume windows earlier than usual.

If you're buying hand-to-mouth, the practical move is to map your must-have specs sooner rather than chase whatever origin is left later.

💬 Looking for something specific?
Just hit reply — tell me what tonnage you need and when, and I'll come back to you with origins that fit your specs.
Or copy-paste one of these:
→ Send me EU-compliant pistachio options for Q3/Q4
→ I need California in-shell and kernel indications
→ Add me to weekly pistachio market updates
→ Reply to this email

Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

🔗 Source Notes

Every figure above, with its exact date and link, consolidated here for compliance.

  1. INC CONGRESS — global 2025/26 and preliminary 2026/27 in-shell balance, including crop, supply and ending stocks — as of 2026-05-18 — Tier 0 / INC CONGRESS, no public link
  2. Meridian Growers — April 2026 U.S. shipment pace, export growth, consumption and inventory read — as of 2026-06-05 — Tier 0 / Meridian Growers, no public link
  3. OFI Nuts Market & Crop Update - Global May 2026 — shipment comparison, 2026 U.S. crop framing, demand and Türkiye crop colour — as of 2026-06-05 — Tier 0 / OFI Nuts Market & Crop Update - Global May 2026, no public link
  4. USDA/FAS Tree Nuts Annual Circular — U.S. and global pistachio balance, demand forecasts, HS conversion factors — as of 2026-02-01 — https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/TreeNuts.pdf
  5. USDA NASS California State Agriculture Overview — California 2025 pistachio production, acres, yield and value — as of 2026-06-04 — https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=CALIFORNIA
  6. Administrative Committee for Pistachios April 2026 Shipment Tons — U.S. YTD shipments, exports, domestic movement and destination data — as of 2026-05-15 — https://acpistachios.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/04-2026-Inventory-Shipment-Tons.pdf
  7. Administrative Committee for Pistachios April 2026 Shipment Pounds — California closed-shell and shelling-stock receipts — as of 2026-05-15 — https://acpistachios.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/04-2026-Inventory-Shipment-Pounds.pdf
  8. WITS / UN Comtrade EU Pistachio Imports — EU 2024 aggregate pistachio import baseline — as of 2026-05-31 — https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/EUN/year/2024/tradeflow/Imports/partner/ALL/product/080250
  9. WITS / UN Comtrade World Import Ranking — China 2024 aggregate pistachio import baseline — as of 2026-05-31 — https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2024/tradeflow/Imports/partner/WLD/product/080250
  10. WITS / UN Comtrade India Pistachio Imports — India 2024 aggregate pistachio imports by origin — as of 2026-05-31 — https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/IND/year/2024/tradeflow/Imports/partner/ALL/product/080250
  11. USDA/FAS Germany Dried Fruit and Nuts Product Brief — Germany 2025 pistachio import value and in-shell/shelled split from the U.S. — as of 2026-04-01 — https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Dried+Fruit+and+Nuts+Product+Brief_Berlin_Germany_GM2026-0005.pdf
  12. California Department of Water Resources Current Water Conditions — reservoir storage, percent of average and groundwater drought-buffer context — as of 2026-06-07 — https://cww.water.ca.gov/
  13. EU Regulation 2023/915 — pistachio aflatoxin maximum levels — as of 2026-06-08 — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/en/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32023R0915
  14. Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/194 — higher EU aflatoxin identity and physical checks for selected pistachio flows — as of 2026-02-17 — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=OJ:L_202600194
  15. 7 CFR 999.600 Pistachio Import Regulations — U.S. aflatoxin testing, certification and failed-lot rules — as of 2026-06-08 — https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/7/999.600
  16. CFIA Pistachio Import Requirements — Canadian restrictions and Salmonella controls for Iranian pistachios — as of 2025-09-27 — https://inspection.canada.ca/en/importing-food-plants-animals/food-imports/food-specific-requirements/pistachios
  17. OFAC Iran Sanctions Program Page — Iran agriculture transaction licensing and sanctions-review context — as of 2026-06-05 — https://ofac.treasury.gov/sanctions-programs-and-country-information/iran-sanctions
  18. INC / CFNA Tariff Update — China tariff levels for U.S.-origin in-shell and shelled pistachios — as of 2025-11-10 — https://inc.nutfruit.org/inc-tariff-report-updates-6/
  19. USDA AMS Boston Terminal Market Report — California pistachio wholesale terminal price and steady market tone — as of 2026-06-05
  20. Commodity Board Pistachio Market Update — public Iranian FOB and European spot price colour — as of 2026-06-05 — https://commodity-board.com/pistachios-under-pressure-sharp-2026-27-crop-drop-sets-up-tight-market

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.

Constantinos Cardassilaris