Pecans Market Report June 2026: U.S. Stocks Looser, Mexico Crop Down

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, in-shell MT unless I flag otherwise. Data as of 2026-06-04 — full sourcing in the Source Notes at the end.

🎯 The 30-second version

Mexico is pencilled down to 111,250 MT. U.S. uncommitted inventory is sitting around 24,948 MT equivalent. That gives buyers breathing room, but not a free pass.

If you're planning Q3/Q4 kernel cover, EU-bound specs, or China-sensitive origin strategy, this one matters. Three minutes will save you a messy autumn call.

▲ U.S. CROP
130,000 MT
2026/27 in-shell preliminary crop read.
Slightly easier for buyers.
▼ MEXICO CROP
111,250 MT
2026/27 in-shell preliminary crop read.
Main tightening risk.
U.S. UNCOMMITTED
24,948 MT
Equivalent to 55 million lb in-shell.
Near-term cushion exists.
▼ U.S. DOMESTIC USE
-15%
APC says domestic utilization trails last season by 36 million lb.
Demand is not chasing.

📋 What's actually happening

INC June 2026 data shows a U.S. 2026/27 crop at 130,000 MT in-shell, basically steady to a touch higher. That's not bearish by itself. It just means the U.S. side is not the obvious shortage story today.

Per INC June 2026, Mexico is the opposite. The 2026/27 crop is pencilled at 111,250 MT in-shell, down from 116,500 MT last season. That matters because Mexico is not just an origin. It is also tied into U.S. shelling flows and China demand.

APC says U.S. receipts are running ahead of last year, while commitments are lighter. Translation: nearby availability is not terrible. But buyer psychology is still cautious, and clean light-color halves do not behave like generic pieces.

USDA-FAS is calling China more price-sensitive, more kernel/processed oriented, and more policy-complicated. That is the catch. China is not absent. It is selective. And tariff or anti-dumping news can move origin preference fast.

Put it together: nearby U.S. supply is manageable, but 2026/27 is not a sleepwalk. That matters most if you need EU-compliant kernels, premium halves, or fixed-cover programs into Q4.

🌍 The pecans supply picture

Looking at INC June 2026's numbers, world supply is not collapsing. But the balance is shifting between origins.

Key supply reads:

  • 2025/26 world crop: 316,050 MT in-shell.
  • 2025/26 world ending stock: 17,060 MT in-shell.
  • 2026/27 U.S. crop: 130,000 MT in-shell, preliminary.
  • 2026/27 Mexico crop: 111,250 MT in-shell, preliminary.
  • 2026/27 South Africa crop: 53,500 MT in-shell, preliminary.
  • 2026/27 China crop: 11,700 MT in-shell, preliminary.
  • 2026/27 Brazil crop: 10,000 MT in-shell, preliminary.

Here's the thing. Pecans are not walnuts. You cannot look at one headline crop number and make a buying decision. Kernel yield, color, halves versus pieces, shelling availability, and destination rules change the value completely.

💡 WHAT IT MEANS
Do not buy the crop number. Buy the spec. If you need light kernels, mammoth halves, low defect, EU nickel comfort, or tight delivery windows, the market is much narrower than the in-shell tonnage suggests.

🇺🇸 What's going on in U.S.

APC's U.S. read is the cleanest near-term signal we have:

  • Receipts: 273 million lb in-shell, equal to about 123,831 MT, up 7% year on year.
  • Expected final receipts: near the 5-year average of 320 million lb, about 145,150 MT.
  • Uncommitted inventory: 55 million lb in-shell, about 24,948 MT.
  • Outstanding commitments: down 30.7 million lb, about 13,925 MT, versus last season.
  • Domestic shipments: 185 million lb in-shell, about 83,915 MT, below 206 million lb last season.
  • Domestic utilization: down 15%, equal to 36 million lb or about 16,329 MT.

APC also flags a rare trade pattern: U.S. exports exceeded imports for three straight months. They link it mainly to lower Mexican production and stronger Mexican demand, not a big Chinese comeback. That is important because U.S.-Mexico shelling trade can distort the headline flow. Some U.S. in-shell pecans go to Mexico for shelling and return as kernels.

Price tone is not screaming lower either. USDA AMS described terminal-market pecans as steady with light offerings, with Atlanta Georgia Improved Pawnee large at USD 175 per 50-lb sack and Boston California pecans at USD 94 per 25-lb sack or USD 180 per 50-lb sack. Tridge's U.S. wholesale indication sat around USD 5,510-6,390/MT for raw pecans, but remember: public wholesale, terminal, shelled export, and program kernel prices are different animals.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers — read this)

Quality is where the easy market gets difficult. Pecans can look available until you add color, size, kernel grade, halves percentage, microbiology, residue comfort, and destination documentation.

UGA says Georgia pecans have set the crop, but sporadic rainfall has raised scab risk. Their field guidance also points to active disease management, with high-scab-potential varieties on 10-17 day spray intervals, shortened when rainy. That does not mean a quality problem is guaranteed. It means buyers should stay close to orchard weather and not assume every lot will make premium specs.

Water is the other quality issue hiding in plain sight. New Mexico still had 55.02% of area in severe drought and 29.61% in extreme drought on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor read. Texas A&M's Trans-Pecos budget also puts irrigation energy at USD 352/acre. Water cost and water access matter for nut fill, sizing, and stress.

⚠️ EU COMPLIANCE WATCH
EU nickel is still live for pecans. The current tree-nut category sits at **3.5 mg/kg**, while INC/FRUCOM notes the Commission is working on lifting the pecan maximum level to **10 mg/kg**. Until that is settled in practice, EU-bound buyers should keep nickel testing and origin history in the file.

FDA's mycotoxin import alert also covers shelled pecans. So for U.S.-bound or U.S.-handled material, keep aflatoxin/mycotoxin evidence clean. And do not sleep on allergen control. FDA recorded a pecan-product recall for undeclared cashews, which is a good reminder that processed nut plants need tight segregation.

Practical takeaway: if you're EU-bound, don't just ask for price and size. Ask for color, peroxide/free fatty acid comfort where relevant, aflatoxin/mycotoxin status, nickel history, COA timing, lot traceability, and whether the supplier can hold spec through delivery.

🌐 Where the pecans are coming from

🇺🇸 United States
2026/27 crop:
130,000 MT in-shell, preliminary

Uncommitted:
24,948 MT equivalent

Driver: Better availability, but weather and quality still matter.
🇲🇽 Mexico
2026/27 crop:
111,250 MT in-shell, preliminary

Direction:
Down from 116,500 MT

Driver: Smaller crop plus shelling-flow sensitivity.
🇿🇦 South Africa
2026/27 crop:
53,500 MT in-shell, preliminary

China lane:
47,597 MT shipped to China in 2025

Driver: Strong China-facing role, weather risk into El Nino.

The U.S. is still the anchor origin for kernels and quality programs. The issue is not whether U.S. supply exists. It is whether the right lots exist at the right price for the right customer.

Mexico is the pressure point. A smaller crop matters on its own, and it also matters because U.S.-Mexico shelling flows can blur what looks like import/export demand.

South Africa is becoming harder to ignore. Public reporting tied to SAPPA says South Africa exported 47,597 MT of in-shell pecans to China in 2025. If China keeps favoring South Africa and Mexico over the U.S., that can pull availability away from other buyers.

📊 Who's buying what

USDA-FAS / APC 2025/26 demand signals, in-shell MT where stated

U.S. domestic
  83,915
China - SA lane
  47,597
China - U.S. lane
  11,017
💡 READING THE CHART
China is the swing buyer, not because it buys every lot at every price, but because its origin mix can change quickly. USDA-FAS says China pecan imports fell **30%** in MY2024/25, consumers are moving toward kernels and processed products, and South Africa plus Mexico have emerged as top suppliers.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

  • 🇨🇳 China policy risk: USDA-FAS says China opened an anti-dumping investigation on pecans from Mexico and the U.S., with calendar 2024 as the dumping review period and 2022-2024 as the injury period.
  • 🇨🇳 China tariff risk: USDA-FAS listed U.S. pecans at 7% MFN, 42% U.S. tariff treatment, and 9% VAT, while INC later showed 32% after a tariff reduction. Buyers need to price China business with the applied rate in mind.
  • 🇨🇳 China registration: USDA-FAS says imported dry nuts, including pecans, are in a high-attention category, with import dependency above 90% and official recommendation-based registration for overseas dry-nut facilities.
  • 🇮🇳 India demand option: India cut the pecan import duty to 30% from a prior 100%, which keeps it on the emerging-demand map.
  • 🇺🇸 HS code trap: current U.S. HTS splits pecans under HS 0802.99 into in-shell 0802.99.10.00 and shelled 0802.99.15.00. Do not silently mix old 0802.90 datasets with current code series.
  • 🇦🇺 Australia weather: BOM says below-average winter rainfall is likely across large parts of southern, central and eastern Australia, with 60-80% probabilities in some regions.
  • 🇿🇦 South Africa weather: SAWS-linked reporting points toward hotter and drier summer risk if El Nino develops.
  • 🇺🇸 ENSO: NOAA CPC has El Nino probabilities at 82% for May-July, 92% for June-August, and 98% from August-October through November-January.

✅ If I were you, I'd...

I would not panic-buy pecans today. But I also would not treat the U.S. inventory cushion as a guarantee that Q4 premium kernels stay easy. The market is comfortable only until everyone wants the same color, same size, same origin, and same compliance file.

✅ Cover core needs in layers rather than waiting for one perfect low print.
✅ Separate halves from pieces in your planning. They are not the same market.
✅ Ask for EU nickel history early if the shipment is Europe-bound.
✅ Keep Mexico exposure watched because crop and shelling-flow risk sit there.
✅ Watch China policy headlines before fixing origin-sensitive programs.
✅ Push for lot-level quality detail on color, defects, mycotoxins, and traceability.
✅ Build a weather trigger into Q3 buying plans for U.S. drought, scab, and El Nino risk.

Bottom line: the practical move is to define the spec and cover the hard-to-replace portion sooner rather than waiting for generic inventory to become usable product.

💬 Looking for something specific?
Just hit reply — tell me what tonnage you need and when, and I'll come back to you with origins that fit your specs.
Or copy-paste one of these:
→ "Send me Q4 pecan kernel options for EU specs"
→ "I need light halves, not pieces"
→ "Add me to pecan market updates"
→ Reply to this email

Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

🔗 Source Notes

Every figure above, with its exact date and link, consolidated here for compliance.

  1. INC June 2026 — private pecan round table data backing 2025/26 and 2026/27 in-shell crop, supply and ending-stock figures by origin — as of 2026-06-04 — Tier 0 / INC June 2026, no public link
  2. American Pecan Council May 2026 U.S. market report — U.S. receipts, commitments, uncommitted inventory, domestic utilization, domestic shipments and U.S.-Mexico shelling-flow context — as of 2026-05-01 — https://americanpecan.com/getcontentasset/0e77cdea-6bc0-475d-a561-585aa3d828bd/0cba2339-31db-4902-9cb8-9f86d7b3473b/us-pecan-market-analysis-mar-data-final.pdf?language=en-US
  3. USDA-FAS China Tree Nuts Annual — China pecan import decline, supplier mix, kernel demand trend, U.S. exports to China, tariff table and anti-dumping investigation — as of 2025-11-21 — https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Tree+Nuts+Annual_Beijing_China+-+People%27s+Republic+of_CH2025-0198
  4. FOCAC / SAPPA-referenced South Africa-China pecan reporting — South Africa 2025 in-shell pecan exports to China at 47,597 MT — as of 2026-04-27 — https://www.focac.org/eng/zfzs_1/202604/t20260427_11900373.htm
  5. USDA AMS terminal market reports — U.S. public terminal-market pecan tone and Atlanta/Boston package price indications — as of 2026-06-03 — https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/aj_fv040.pdf
  6. Tridge U.S. raw pecan price page — public U.S. wholesale indication range of USD 5.51-6.39/kg — as of 2026-06-04 — https://dir.tridge.com/prices/raw-pecan-nut/US
  7. UGA Extension Appling County pecan update — Georgia crop set, scab risk and irrigation guidance — as of 2026-05-27 — https://site.extension.uga.edu/applingcrop/2026/05/appling-county-may-june-2026-pecan-update/
  8. UGA Commercial Pecan Spray Guide — 2026 pecan insect, disease and weed control context — as of 2026-04-09 — https://fieldreport.caes.uga.edu/publications/B841/commercial-pecan-spray-guide/
  9. U.S. Drought Monitor New Mexico report — New Mexico drought severity percentages for pecan water-stress context — as of 2026-05-28 — https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Data/pdf/current/current_NM_cat.pdf
  10. Texas A&M 2026 Trans-Pecos pecan budget — irrigation energy cost of USD 352/acre — as of 2026-02-01 — https://agecoext.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026D6Pecans.pdf
  11. EU Regulation 2024/1987 — current EU nickel maximum level framework for tree nuts — as of 2024-07-31 — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1773294725944&uri=CELEX%3A32024R1987
  12. INC Food Safety Update — proposed pecan nickel maximum level increase from 3.5 mg/kg to 10 mg/kg — as of 2026-05-01 — https://inc.nutfruit.org/food-safety-update-9/
  13. FDA Import Alert 23-14 — shelled pecans covered under mycotoxin detention-without-physical-examination procedures — as of 2026-05-01 — https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/CMS_IA/importalert_581.html
  14. FDA Nat's Nuts recall notice — 600-bag pecan-product recall for undeclared cashews — as of 2025-10-17 — https://www.fda.gov/safety/recalls-market-withdrawals-safety-alerts/nats-nuts-issues-allergy-alert-potential-undeclared-cashews-nats-nuts-brand-cinnamon-whiskey-pecans
  15. USDA-FAS GACC Decree 280 report — China imported dry-nut registration/risk-evaluation framework and pecan import dependency above 90% — as of 2026-05-01 — https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=GACC+Decree+280+-+Imported+Food+Registration+Risk+Evaluation_Beijing_China+-+People%27s+Republic+of_CH2026-0047.pdf
  16. USITC HTS search — current U.S. pecan HS/HTS classification under 0802.99.10.00 and 0802.99.15.00 — as of 2026-06-04 — https://hts.usitc.gov/search?query=0802
  17. USDA-FAS India pecan tariff note — India pecan import duty reduction to 30% from prior 100% — as of 2023-02-22 — https://fas2.stg.platform.usda.gov/data/india-india-reduces-import-duty-tariff-levied-pecans-cracking-open-door-american-nut
  18. NOAA CPC ENSO probabilities — El Nino probability profile for 2026/27 weather risk — as of 2026-05-14 — https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/probabilities.php
  19. Australia Bureau of Meteorology climate outlook — June-August below-average rainfall probabilities for Australia — as of 2026-06-04 — https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/
  20. South African Government News / SAWS seasonal climate forecast — rapid shift toward El Nino and hotter/drier condition risk — as of 2026-04-08 — https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/saws-releases-seasonal-climate-forecast

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.

Constantinos Cardassilaris