Pistachios Market Intelligence: 2026/27 Crop Supply and Demand Outlook

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, in-shell unless I flag otherwise.

🎯 The 30-second version

California's down -37%. Exports are running at record pace. The 2026/27 buffer is thinner than the headlines suggest.

If you're planning Q3+ coverage or shipping to EU, this issue matters. Three minutes will save you a bad call.

▼ World crop 2026/27
701,050 MT
vs 1,101,740 MT in 2025/26 · per INC
Tightest crop since 2022.
▲ Global exports 2025/26
683,000 MT
record · USDA · US-led
Record pace. Demand isn't slowing.
▼ California CY2026
355,000 MT
−37% vs 565,000 MT CY2025 · per INC
Off-crop year. Allocation will be tight.
▲ US YTD shipments
373,431.66 MT
through April · ACP
Already past last year's full-cycle pace.

📋 What's actually happening

Here's the picture: world pistachio crop for 2026/27 is shaping up at 701,050 MT. That's a big step down from last year's 1.1 million MT. INC dropped that number at their congress last week, and USDA's February outlook lines up with that previous base (1.1M MT in-shell, as of 2026-02-01).

Demand hasn't followed the crop down. INC pencils 2025/26 global consumption at 1,072,970 MT, and USDA's public number sits at 1,062,000 MT — same neighborhood.

The catch: we're stepping from a record crop into a smaller one while exports are still running hot. USDA forecasts global pistachio exports at a record 683,000 MT for the 2025/26 crop, with the US doing most of the lifting.

Put it together: supply-demand math for next season is leaner than this season's headlines suggest. That matters most if you're trying to plan coverage past Q1 2027.

🌍 The supply picture

The real story isn't the crop size on its own — it's the carryover that has to bridge into the next off-cycle.

Per INC: 2026/27 supply lands at 940,820 MT:

  • 239,770 MT opening stock
  • 701,050 MT crop
  • 123,400 MT ending stock

Translate that and you get a tighter 2026/27 before any demand rationing kicks in. Last season's record crop built real shipment momentum, but a smaller next crop leaves less room for quality segregation, origin swaps, or late-season spot covering.

💡 What it means
Last year you had room to wait. This year? Not so much. A lot of regular buyers are starting Q3 conversations earlier than usual — and that's the smart move.

🇺🇸 What's going on in the US

The US 2025 crop is well-documented now:

USDA also forecasts record US domestic pistachio consumption for 2025/26 at 225,000 MT — so domestic demand is pulling alongside exports.

Per INC, projected California CY2026 industry shipments are 355,000 MT in-shell — down 37% from the 565,000 MT CY2025 outlook, tracking the off-crop supply cycle. Roughly two thirds of this year's volume to work with, against demand that hasn't given up much ground.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers — read this)

For anyone serving regulated ingredient or retail channels, quality segregation is the part that actually moves margin.

Per OFI's April report: closed-shell and shelling-stock supply for 2025/26 should reach roughly 300 million lb (≈ 136,000 MT). ACP receipts back that up: 293,665,562 lb (≈ 133,205 MT) by 2026-04-30.

⚠️ EU Alert — heads up if you ship to EU
OFI is seeing higher insect pressure during harvest, which means aflatoxin risk is up in the current crop. Real issue for EU-facing programs.

ACP's PEAR program (pre-export aflatoxin testing for EU-destined lots) sets tolerances at 4 ppb total aflatoxin and 5 ppb ochratoxin A from September 1 of each crop year.

That splits the market into food-safety-qualified lots, shelling-stock streams, and destinations with less paperwork pressure. Shelling-stock volume can carry kernel supply, but EU-compliant whole and kernel programs still depend on testing, sorting, and documentation holding together.

Practical takeaway: if you're EU-bound, confirm PEAR coverage and EU testing assumptions early in the buying process — supply this year is less forgiving of late documentation problems.

🌐 Where the pistachios are coming from

🇺🇸 USA
2025/26 receipts:
722,672.71 MT (ACP)

Cal CY2026:
355,000 MT (-37%)

Driver: off-crop cycle
🇮🇷 Iran
2025/26 crop:
225,000 MT (INC) · 200,000 MT (USDA)

2026/27 forecast:
130,000 MT · 20,000 MT ending

Driver: heat, drought, irrigation
🇹🇷 Türkiye
2025/26 crop:
114,600 MT (INC) · 120,000 MT (USDA)

2026/27 forecast:
156,400 MT · 53,400 MT ending

Driver: off-year + SE frost/drought

Per INC, Iran's 2025/26 crop sits at 225,000 MT in-shell equivalent. IPA reports the same headline plus 114,000 MT of in-shell inventory at the end of the seventh marketing month, 2026-04-20. Looking forward, INC forecasts Iran's 2026/27 crop at 130,000 MT with 20,000 MT ending stock. USDA had been more conservative on 2025/26 at 200,000 MT, citing heat, drought stress and irrigation interruptions.

Türkiye is a similar story — alternate-bearing year, weather-hit. Per INC, the 2025/26 crop is pegged at 114,600 MT. USDA independently puts it at 120,000 MT, pointing to the off-year cycle plus frost and drought in the southeast. For 2026/27, INC has Türkiye recovering to 156,400 MT with 53,400 MT ending stock.

📊 Who's buying what

USDA 2025/26 forecasts, in-shell MT

EU
  247,000
US (domestic)
  225,000
China
  125,000
India
  60,000
UAE
  45,000

The EU stays the biggest consumption market in USDA's public balance, at 247,000 MT for 2025/26. US shipments to Europe have run ahead of last year — 243,411,202 lb (≈ 110,410 MT) through April 2026.

China is the classic swing buyer, but USDA pulled the import forecast back to 125,000 MT for 2025/26, reflecting a softer-than-usual Lunar New Year. India keeps growing in the public sheets — USDA pegs consumption/imports at 60,000 MT.

Middle East and Africa are still moving real tonnage. ACP shows US shipments to the region at 126,645,570 lb (≈ 57,446 MT) through April, with USDA forecasting UAE consumption/imports at 45,000 MT.

💡 Reading the chart
EU + US domestic alone account for roughly 472,000 MT of 2025/26 demand — nearly two thirds of the projected 2026/27 world crop on its own. That's the cleanest way to see why supply tightness matters even with a softer China and a record US shipment year.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

California water is mixed but better than it was:

Compliance notes:

  • 🇺🇸 US sanctions still prohibit transactions in Iranian-origin goods that aren't substantially transformed in a third country (current rule)
  • 📋 For plant-product exports out of the US, APHIS expects exporters to use PCIT for inspection, sampling, testing and certification.

✅ If I were you, I'd...

Heading into 2026/27, the picture is: shipments still running hot, smaller projected crop, quality buckets that matter more than usual. For your planning:

✅ Map origin availability across USA / Iran / Türkiye options for next season
✅ Lock in EU-compliant lot supply clarity (PEAR coverage, certification chain)
✅ Confirm shelling-stock conversion assumptions for any kernel program
✅ Track California water evolution through the summer
✅ Validate destination-specific phytosanitary and sanctions rules

A tighter crop doesn't remove demand sensitivity — it just leaves less buffer for late-season cover if shipments keep their pace. If your 2026/27 program is sensitive to either origin mix or EU-quality lots, the practical move is to lock in clarity on those two variables sooner rather than wait for the public balance sheets to catch up.

💬 Looking for something specific?
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Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

Constantinos Cardassilaris