May 2026 Cashew Market Update: Reduced RCN Supply and Ongoing Quality Concerns

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, RCN in-shell MT and kernel MT unless I flag otherwise. Data as of 2026-05-28 — full sourcing in the Source Notes at the end.

🎯 The 30-second version

World RCN is pencilled at 6,214,500 MT for 2026/27, down 168,800 MT. The bigger issue is weaker outturn, not just tonnage.

If you're covering W320, wholes, or EU-bound clean lots for Q3/Q4, this matters. Three minutes here should save you a bad coverage call.

▼ WORLD RCN 6,214,500 MT INC May 2026 preliminary 2026/27 crop read. Supply buffer looks thinner.	▼ WEST AFRICA RCN 3,287,500 MT Down from 3,450,000 MT in the prior crop. Quality matters more now.
▲ VIETNAM EXPORTS 194,186 MT Kernel exports through April, worth USD 1.348B. Pace is not slow.	▲ FREIGHT 2,712/40ft Drewry WCI moved higher in late May. Landed cost creeping up.

📋 What's actually happening

INC May 2026 data shows a preliminary 2026/27 world RCN crop at 6,214,500 MT, versus 6,383,300 MT for 2025/26. That's not a collapse. But it removes comfort.

OFI Cashews Report April-May 2026 says West African outturns are down around 2.0-2.5 lbs across key origins. That's the tradeable bit. A big RCN number means less if it cracks into fewer clean kernels.

Here's the thing. Vietnam is still moving serious kernel volume. Official customs data puts exports at 194,186 MT through April. But Vietnam also imported more than 1.3M MT of RCN in January-April at a cost of around USD 2.17B. Raw material is not cheap.

Demand is waking up, but not in a panic. Europe is still snack-led. The US is still Vietnam-heavy. Middle East demand has a political/logistics question mark around UAE, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia.

Put it together: this is a quality-led firm market, not a simple shortage story. That matters most if you're buying EU specs, W320, or premium wholes into Q3/Q4.

🌍 The cashew supply picture

Looking at INC May 2026's numbers, the 2026/27 RCN crop is lower almost everywhere that matters except Cambodia and India.

The clean read:

• Opening stock: not stated in the INC table.
• 2026/27 world RCN crop: 6,214,500 MT preliminary first estimate.
• 2025/26 world RCN crop: 6,383,300 MT.
• Change: down 168,800 MT, about 2.6%.
• Western Africa subtotal: 3,287,500 MT, down from 3,450,000 MT.
• Northern Hemisphere subtotal: 5,292,500 MT, down from 5,425,000 MT.
• Eastern Africa subtotal: 625,500 MT, down from 645,000 MT.
• Ending stock: not stated in the INC table.

Per INC May 2026's latest read, Cote d'Ivoire is still the giant at 1,460,000 MT RCN, Cambodia is next at 965,000 MT, India sits at 730,000 MT, and Tanzania is pencilled at 490,000 MT.

The catch: supply tonnes and kernel availability are not the same thing. If outturn falls, processors need more RCN to deliver the same kernel volume. That's why the market can feel tight even when headline crop numbers don't look dramatic.

💡 WHAT IT MEANS Don't buy the crop headline only. Buy the usable kernel profile. Good outturn, low moisture, clean colour and reliable processing slots are where the premium sits this season.

🇮🇳 What's going on in India

India is not the biggest export processor, but it still matters because it absorbs RCN, competes for West African flows, and sets a big piece of Asian demand psychology.

• INC May 2026 preliminary India RCN crop: 730,000 MT, slightly above 725,000 MT last crop.
• IMD southwest monsoon forecast: 92% of long-period average, with model error of plus/minus 5%.
• India wholesale cashew indication: USD 5.43/kg on Regionalert, with another public range at USD 5.19-5.67/kg.
• OFI Cashews Report April-May 2026 says: Indian local demand softened, while processing in India and Asia stayed subdued.

That last point matters. If India is not chasing aggressively, it gives the market some breathing room. But if local demand turns before West African RCN quality is fully understood, processors can move quickly.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers — read this)

What OFI Cashews Report April-May 2026 is telling us: first-flush quality in West Africa was hit by excessive rainfall, and second-flush outturns in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria were still below expectations.

NOAA's late-May monitoring lines up with the messy field picture: rainfall surpluses were visible in southern Cote d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, northern Togo and Benin, while vegetation health was below average in northern Ghana, Togo and Benin.

Cote d'Ivoire also tightened the practical quality gate. Public campaign rules say RCN above 10% moisture will not be accepted for warehouse unloading. That's exactly the kind of rule that forces better segregation.

⚠️ QUALITY ALERT If you're EU-bound, don't treat W320 as one generic line item. Ask for moisture, outturn, colour, breakage, microbiology controls, COA discipline and lot traceability. This is a season to separate clean lots early.

Practical takeaway: If you need premium wholes, don't wait for the cheapest nearby offer. Cheap lots can become expensive fast if moisture, colour or microbiology paperwork causes delays.

🌐 Where the cashew is coming from

🇨🇮 Cote d'Ivoire RCN crop: 1,460,000 MT preliminary Farmgate floor: 400 FCFA/kg RCN Driver: Lower crop and moisture discipline.

🇻🇳 Vietnam RCN crop: 310,000 MT preliminary Kernel exports: 194,186 MT through April Driver: Processing machine still running.

🇰🇭 Cambodia RCN crop: 965,000 MT preliminary Change: Up from 930,000 MT Driver: Key early Asian RCN source.

Cote d'Ivoire remains the anchor origin. The official farmgate floor is 400 FCFA/kg RCN, below the previous campaign's 425 FCFA/kg, but downstream floor prices rise through the chain to interior, factory and port store levels.

Vietnam is the processing hub to watch. VINACAS has talked about an 800,000 MT kernel export target for 2026, while customs already shows almost 194,186 MT exported through April. Local weather has not been friendly either: Dong Nai reporting pointed to 30-50% yield losses in many orchards after unseasonal rains.

Cambodia is the relative growth line in the INC table. That helps. But Cambodia alone does not solve West African quality or Vietnam raw-material cost pressure.

📊 Who's buying what

Public import and trade data, kernel MT where stated

Europe	215,729 MT
US	176,524 MT
Turkiye	28,058 MT

Europe matters because it is snack-heavy. CBI puts about 90% of imported kernels into snacks and about 10% into food processing. Peak deliveries usually run September-November, so Q3 coverage decisions matter now.

The US is still Vietnam-dominated. WITS data shows 2024 US cashew imports at 176,524 MT, with Vietnam supplying 158,057 MT.

💡 READING THE CHART Europe and the US are big enough to tighten good-grade kernels if they both step in. Turkiye is smaller, but it matters as a regional demand node when Middle East buying is normal.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

• 🇺🇸 Freight is not helping. Drewry's WCI rose to USD 2,712/40ft, with Shanghai-New York at USD 4,317/40ft. CMA CGM and Maersk surcharge tables also show USD 2,000/40ft peak-season surcharge signals on Far East-to-North America lanes.
• 🇪🇺 EU buyers should remember the seasonality. CBI says European deliveries usually peak September-November because of winter holiday demand.
• 🇨🇳 China import-entry references for shelled cashews flag customs clearance plus plant quarantine and food-safety inspection categories.
• 🇦🇪 Middle East risk is real. Vietnamese industry reporting says traditional contracts in UAE, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia stalled amid regional disruption.
• 🇧🇯 Benin policy still channels RCN toward local industry first, with export authorization after local industrial needs are satisfied.
• 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau opened with a 410 CFA/kg producer reference and USD 1,050/MT export reference, while targeted EU/French sanctions require designated-person screening, not a blanket cashew ban in the cited source.

✅ If I were you, I'd...

I would not chase every offer. I would separate buying by use: snack-grade wholes, ingredient pieces, and flexible lower-grade cover. Same market, very different risk.

✅ Cover clean Q3/Q4 wholes earlier if colour, moisture and microbiology matter. ✅ Keep W320 separate from pieces in your pricing view. They won't behave the same. ✅ Ask for outturn and moisture history on West African RCN-linked lots. ✅ Watch Vietnam RCN arrivals as Cambodian and domestic stock tapers. ✅ Budget freight properly if you're buying Asia-origin kernels into the US or EU. ✅ Use multi-origin cover if your spec allows it. One-country dependence is not your friend this season.

Bottom line: the practical move is to secure the quality you cannot easily replace sooner rather than wait for the whole market to agree the crop is smaller.

💬 Looking for something specific? Just hit reply — tell me what tonnage you need and when, and I'll come back to you with origins that fit your specs. Or copy-paste one of these: → "Send me Q4 W320 options" → "I need EU-ready cashew pieces" → "Add me to weekly cashew updates" → Reply to this email

Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

🔗 Source Notes

Every figure above, with its exact date and link, consolidated here for compliance.

1. INC May 2026 — 2026/27 preliminary RCN crop table, country totals and regional subtotals — as of 2026-05-28 — Tier 0 / INC May 2026, no public link
2. OFI Cashews Report April-May 2026 — West Africa outturn weakness, partial processor coverage, subdued India demand and quality risk — as of 2026-05-28 — Tier 0 / OFI Cashews Report April-May 2026, no public link
3. Cote d'Ivoire Government — 2026 RCN farmgate floor at 400 FCFA/kg versus prior 425 FCFA/kg — as of 2026-02-07 — https://www.gouv.ci/actualite/campagne-2026-de-lanacarde-le-prix-bord-champ-du-kilogramme-de-la-noix-de-cajou-fixe-a-400-fcfa-1858
4. Cote d'Ivoire Government circular — mandatory RCN floor prices at farmgate, interior store, factory store and port store — as of 2026-03-12 — https://www.gouv.ci/uploads/publications/177330565465.pdf
5. Ghana TCDA — Ghana 2025/26 minimum producer price of GH¢12.00/kg and USD 1,400/MT FOB pricing reference — as of 2025-12-15 — https://www.tcda.gov.gh/med/news/149-government-sets-ghs-12-00-per-kilogram-as-minimum-producer-price-for-raw-cashew-nuts-2025-2026-season
6. Vietnam Customs March data — Vietnam cashew exports at 125,492 MT and USD 860.6M through March — as of 2026-04-08 — https://files.customs.gov.vn/CustomsCMS/TONG_CUC/2026/4/8/2026-T03K2-1X%28EN-PR%29.pdf
7. Vietnam Customs April data — Vietnam cashew exports at 194,186 MT and USD 1.348B through April — as of 2026-05-07 — https://files.customs.gov.vn/CustomsCMS/TONG_CUC/2026/5/7/2026-t4k2-1x%28ta-sb%29.pdf
8. VINACAS — Vietnam 2026 kernel export target around 800,000 MT — as of 2026-03-20 — https://www.vinacas.com.vn/nganh-dieu-viet-nam-dat-muc-tieu-duy-tri-moc-5-ty-usd-xuat-khau-trong-nam-2026-bv4119.htm
9. Vietnam News — Vietnam January-April RCN imports above 1.3M MT worth about USD 2.17B — as of 2026-05-25 — https://vietnamnews.vn/economy/1781975/cashew-industry-under-pressure-to-move-up-value-chain.html
10. VIR — Vietnam April RCN imports around 543,100 MT and April kernel exports around 61,100 MT — as of 2026-05-12 — https://vir.com.vn/vietnams-raw-cashew-imports-hit-record-943-million-in-april-152341.html
11. CBI Market Potential — European extra-European cashew imports at 215,729 MT and September-November delivery peak — as of 2026-03-23 — https://www.cbi.eu/market-information/processed-fruit-vegetables-edible-nuts/cashew-nuts/market-potential
12. CBI Market Entry — Europe snack share around 90%, food processing around 10%, and W320/W240 public price context — as of 2026-03-23 — https://www.cbi.eu/market-information/processed-fruit-vegetables-edible-nuts/cashew-nuts/market-entry
13. WITS / World Bank Comtrade — US 2024 cashew imports of 176,524 MT, with Vietnam at 158,057 MT — as of 2026-05-25 — https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/USA/year/2024/tradeflow/Imports/partner/ALL/product/080130
14. VnEconomy — Vietnam January 2026 processed-kernel exports at 65,000 tons worth USD 434M, led by Lunar New Year China demand — as of 2026-02-18 — https://en.vneconomy.vn/vietnams-cashew-exports-continue-to-surge-in-early-2026.htm
15. Vietnam.vn Middle East risk — UAE, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia contract disruption risk — as of 2026-04-03 — https://www.vietnam.vn/en/nganh-dieu-viet-nam-no-luc-giu-muc-tieu-5-ty-usd-truoc-thach-thuc-tai-trung-dong
16. AGRHYMET — 2026 Gulf of Guinea rainfall outlook and early-season weather signal — as of 2026-02-28 — https://agrhymet.cilss.int/2026/02/28/communique-final-des-previsions-saisonnieres-des-caracteristiques-agro-hydro-climatiques-de-la-grande-saison-des-pluies-dans-les-pays-du-golfe-de-guinee-presagg-2026/
17. NOAA/CPC — late-May West Africa rainfall anomalies and vegetation health signals — as of 2026-05-28 — https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/globalweatherhazard/Current.pdf
18. Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Environment — El Nino probability of 80-90% and 10-40% rainfall deficit to mid-April — as of 2026-04-17 — https://vnmha.mae.gov.vn/bo-nong-nghiep-va-moi-truong-ban-hanh-cong-van-thong-tin-va-canh-bao-som-ve-hien-tuong-el-nino-nam-2026-17296.htm
19. Dong Nai Newspaper — Dong Nai cashew yield losses of 30-50% in many orchards — as of 2026-03-11 — https://baodongnai.com.vn/kinh-te/202603/dieu-that-thu-vi-mua-trai-mua-tai-dong-nai-2b23fad/
20. IMD — India southwest monsoon forecast at 92% of long-period average — as of 2026-04-13 — https://mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/marquee_data/Long%20Range%20Forecast%20for%20Southwest%20Monsoon%20Season%20Rainfall_Press_release_13.4.2026%20%281%29.pdf
21. Regionalert — India wholesale cashew indication at USD 5.43/kg — as of 2026-05-26 — https://regionalert.com/prices/cashew/
22. Selina Wamucii — India 2026 wholesale cashew range of USD 5.19-5.67/kg — as of 2026-05-24 — https://www.selinawamucii.com/insights/prices/india/cashew-nuts/
23. SVC Vietnam — Vietnam WW320 FOB Ho Chi Minh public offer indications around USD 7.05-7.20/kg in May — as of 2026-05-23 — https://svc.vn/cashew-price-update-svc-official/
24. Drewry WCI — World Container Index at USD 2,712/40ft and key Asia lane rates — as of 2026-05-21 — https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/world-container-index-weekly-update
25. CMA CGM — Far East-to-North America PSS of USD 2,000/40ft from May 1 — as of 2026-04-03 — https://www.cma-cgm.com/news/5401/pss-from-far-east-to-north-america
26. Maersk — Asia/Vietnam-to-US PSS table showing USD 2,000/40ft — as of 2025-12-05 — https://www.maersk.com.cn/news/articles/2025/12/05/peak-season-surcharge-pss-p1e-p3e
27. Benin CATIS — RCN export authorization after local industrial needs are satisfied — as of 2023-06-12 — https://catis.xroad.bj/publicservices/PS01321
28. Xinhua Guinea-Bissau — 2026 producer reference price of 410 CFA/kg and 2025 exports above 250,000 MT — as of 2026-03-11 — https://english.news.cn/africa/20260311/2b3d6006f17549baa0edfa2fc27da954/c.html
29. Plataforma Media Guinea-Bissau — 2026 export reference price of USD 1,050/MT — as of 2026-03-11 — https://www.plataformamedia.com/en/2026/03/11/guinea-bissau-transitional-government-cashew-price-2026-campaign/
30. Cote d'Ivoire PWIC — cashew export approval and licensing framework — as of 2026-05-28 — https://pwic.gouv.ci/procedures-exportations/coton-et-anacarde/
31. French Treasury sanctions page — targeted Guinea-Bissau asset-freeze screening, not a blanket cashew-sector ban in the cited source — as of 2026-03-28 — https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/services-aux-entreprises/sanctions-economiques/guinee-bissau
32. HW Supply Chain China HS 0801320000 — China shelled-cashew customs clearance, plant quarantine and food-safety inspection categories — as of 2026-04-01 — https://www.hwsupplychain.com/tool/hscode/0801320000
33. Koaci — Cote d'Ivoire rule that RCN above 10% moisture is not accepted for warehouse unloading — as of 2026-02-17 — https://www.koaci.com/article/2026/02/17/cote-divoire/economie/cote-divoire-noix-de-cajou-brute-les-differents-prix-planchers-obligatoires-fixes-et-les-dispositions-presentees_194450.html

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.