China Walnut New Crop Outlook: Stable to Firm Opening
🌦 New crop arrives without immediate softness
China’s 2026 walnut harvest is underway, and fresh in-shell lots are now entering trade. Yet the first physical arrivals have not brought the softer opening some buyers associate with harvest. Our market read is stable to firm at this initial stage.
Crop availability and immediate seller pressure are not the same thing. New material is arriving into a market that is finding buyers, rather than building up without an outlet.
For now, the start of harvest is a timing signal. By itself, it is not evidence that offers across Chinese walnuts are about to ease.
🚢 Early demand supports the market—but not every variety equally
The support is coming first from within China. Domestic buyers are taking most of the material currently becoming available. Overseas in-shell buyers have also moved early to secure initial lots.
This explains why harvest flow has not yet translated into broad buyer leverage.
There is an important limit to that signal. It describes the opening phase, not the full season, and the near-term direction is still unclear.
Individual varieties can also separate as supply, demand and quality recovery become clearer. A firm aggregate start does not mean every specification will follow the same path.
Buyers can use the current tone as a reason to engage, without turning it into a blanket bullish view or committing all requirements at once.
🎯 Buyer Decision
Ask sellers for current availability and representative samples. Match those against the exact grade, quality and shipment window you need, then decide coverage lot by lot.
Treat today’s firmness as a reason to check exposure early, not as a reason to cover every position. This keeps flexibility while the market reveals where supply and demand are genuinely tight.
📈 Indicative CFR main EU port levels
Today, indicative CFR main EU port levels sit approximately here:
- Chilean Walnuts — In-shell Chandler — 30/34: around USD 2.70/kg
- Chilean Walnuts — In-shell Chandler — 32/34: around USD 2.80/kg
- Chilean Walnuts — In-shell Chandler — 34/36: around USD 2.90/kg
- Chilean Walnuts — In-shell Chandler — 36+: around USD 3.25/kg
- Chilean Walnuts — Kernels — ELH/LH 80%: around USD 7.10/kg
- Chilean Walnuts — Kernels — ELH/LH 20%: around USD 5.70/kg
- Chilean Walnuts — Kernels — Large Pieces: around USD 5.30/kg
- Chilean Walnuts — Kernels — Medium Pieces: around USD 5.00/kg
- Chilean Walnuts — Kernels — Small Pieces: around USD 4.80/kg
- Chinese Walnuts – New Crop, Type 185 — ELH 80%: around USD 5,200/MT
- Chinese Walnuts – New Crop, Type 185 — ELH 60%: around USD 4,925/MT
- Chinese Walnuts – New Crop, Type 185 — LH 80%: around USD 4,300/MT
- US Walnuts — Chandler LH 80%: around USD 6.40/kg
These are indications, never firm offers. Reply with the specific volume and shipment required if you would like a firm offer.