2025 Pistachio Market Report: Supply, Shipments & Demand Outlook

🌰 Global Pistachio Market Outlook 2025

Supply, Demand, Shipments & Strategic Update
May 2025 Market Intelligence | Prepared by Konstantinos Cardassilaris

📦 Pistachio Supply & Consumption – 2024/2025 Snapshot

Total Supply:

  • Carry In: 184.7M lbs
  • 2024 Crop Production: 1.109B lbs
  • Estimated Loss: 190.0M lbs
  • Total Available: 1.103B lbs

Total Consumption (Projected):

  • Domestic Shipments: 230M lbs
  • Export Shipments: 725M lbs
  • Total: 955M lbs
  • Ending Carry Out: 148.7M lbs

⚠️ Losses are lower this year (17.2%), and carry-in volumes are below the 5-year average, tightening supply.

📊 YTD Shipments (as of April 2025)

  • Monthly Change (April):
    🔻 –12.5% vs April 2024

  • Year-to-Date (YTD):

    • Total Shipments: 686.9M lbs (–24% YoY)
    • Domestic: 159.8M lbs (–6.1%)
    • Export: 527.1M lbs (–28.1%)

✅ Despite the drop, this is not a demand issue — processors are already 90%+ sold for the year.

💡 Pistachios Are the “IT NUT” of 2025

At the INC Congress in Mallorca, pistachios emerged as the standout nut:

  • The “Dubai Chocolate effect” and social media buzz are driving visibility
  • Kernel shipments are up 2.5% YoY
  • Processors are cracking open inshell pistachios to meet kernel demand
  • Demand is surging for both snacking and ingredient use

📈 Momentum is expected to continue into 2026.

🌍 Global Crop Estimates

Country 2025 Crop Estimate Carryover
🇺🇸 USA 1.6B lbs (725K MT) ~150M lbs
🇮🇷 Iran 485M lbs (220K MT) Virtually none
🇹🇷 Turkey 315M lbs (143K MT) 535M lbs (243K MT)*

* Most of Turkey’s supply will be consumed domestically as kernels. A recent freeze event may reduce output.

🔁 Trade & Tariff Volatility

  • China's U.S. pistachio import tariff shifted from 145% to 10% in 72 hours
  • The 10% rate is temporary (90 days)
  • Buyers should plan around continued trade unpredictability

🏭 U.S. Crop & Processing Update

  • Shell hardening is on track – a key crop development milestone
  • Estimated processing capacity: 45–50M lbs (20–23K MT)
  • Technology updates:
    • ✅ Pasteurizer/roaster in trial phase
    • ✅ New kernel sorting line operational
    • ✅ 5-log reduction validation complete

🔮 What to Expect This Season

✅ Strong demand for early shipment
✅ Plan September/October needs now due to limited early availability
✅ Our in-line processing enables us to ship new crop faster than most competitors

Constantinos Cardassilaris