Global Raisin Market 2025–2026: Supply Forecast, Turkish Impact & Demand Trends
🧺 Global Raisin Market Outlook 2025–2026
Supply Tightness, Turkish Frost Impact & Strategic Shifts in Global Production
The 2024/2025 raisin crop stands at 1.33 million metric tons, with global supply totaling 1.41 million MT including beginning stocks. Looking forward to 2025/2026, global production is forecast at 1.26 million MT, with total supply expected at 1.396 million MT—indicating a slight decline and continued tightness in the global market.
🌍 Top Producing Countries & Year-over-Year Trends
| Country | 2024/25 Production | 2025/26 Production | Change YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇳 India | 245,000 MT | 180,000 MT | ⬇ –26% |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | 245,000 MT | 215,000 MT | ⬇ –12% |
| 🇹🇷 Türkiye | 226,239 MT | 220,000 MT | ⬇ –3% |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 174,000 MT | 176,901 MT | ⬆ +1.7% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 130,000 MT | 140,000 MT | ⬆ +7.7% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 96,700 MT | 96,400 MT | ↔ stable |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | 60,000 MT | 63,000 MT | ⬆ +5% |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 63,000 MT | 60,000 MT | ⬇ –4.8% |
| 🌍 Others | ~92,375 MT (est.) | ~92,300 MT (est.) | ↔ |
🔢 Total Estimated World Production:
- 2024/25: 1,332,314 MT
- 2025/26: 1,260,501 MT
- Global Consumption (2024/25): 1,274,964 MT
- Ending Stock (2025/26 projected): 132,800 MT
❄️ Turkish Frost & Global Supply Pressure
The Turkish crop—historically the world's largest—has now suffered three consecutive years of decline due to unexpected late frosts, including a cold snap in April 2025. The 2025/26 estimate of 220,000 MT reflects recovery hopes, but remains significantly below pre-2022 levels.
India, which had briefly surpassed Türkiye as the top producer, is seeing a dramatic projected decline of –26% in 2025/26.
🛠️ Key Market Forces
Climate extremes, inflation, and input cost increases are reshaping grower decisions worldwide.
South Africa is scaling up due to:
- Labor availability
- Conversions from wine and table grape industries
- Jumbo raisin market growth
California: While acreage is down, growers using new cultural techniques (dried-on-vine, overhead trellis) are achieving higher yields (up to 5–6 tons/acre), stabilizing output.
📈 Demand Trends
- Raisins remain the most cost-effective dried fruit (excluding dates), with applications in:
- Baking
- Confectionery
- Snacks and smoothie blends
- Emerging demand in:
- Protein bars
- Health-forward breakfast cereals
- Functional, clean-label snacks
🧪 Innovation, Food Safety & Sustainability
- Younger consumers seek:
- Convenient formats
- Transparent sourcing
- Nutritional benefits
- Laser sorting, scanner tech, and government food safety standards are becoming non-negotiables.
- Buyers are looking to Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and South Africa for diversification and reliability.
🔮 Market Outlook Summary
- Supply is tight, but stable due to increased yields and smarter farming.
- Volatility is driven more by climate and currency than acreage alone.
- Raisins will remain a strategic, health-aligned dried fruit—but growth depends on meeting the expectations of younger, label-conscious consumers.
📦 Raisins are well-positioned for sustained global demand—but securing consistent, climate-resilient supply will be the challenge of the decade.
