Pistachio Market Outlook 2025/26: Global Supply Trends, U.S. Surge & Türkiye Decline
🟢 Estimated World Pistachio Production 2025/26
U.S. Surges Ahead, Türkiye Faces Setback, Global Output Rebounds
At the 42nd INC Congress in Mallorca, the latest global pistachio production estimates for 2025/26 show a strong rebound in total supply — led by a record-setting crop in the United States and continued volatility in Türkiye.
📊 Global Pistachio Production Snapshot (In-Shell Basis, Metric Tons)
| Country | 2024/25 Crop | 2024/25 Total Supply | 2024/25 Ending Stock | 2025/26 Crop | 2025/26 Total Supply | 2025/26 Ending Stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 503,700 | 587,600 | 68,100 | 726,400 | 794,500 | 181,600 |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | 200,000 | 230,000 | 20,000 | 220,000 | 240,000 | 30,000 |
| 🇹🇷 Türkiye | 415,500 | 465,500 | 243,400 | 143,000 | 386,400 | 192,400 |
| 🇸🇾 Syria | 28,050 | 28,050 | 0 | 13,350 | 13,350 | 0 |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 4,500 | 4,500 | 0 | 9,600 | 9,600 | 0 |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | 6,000 | 6,000 | 0 | 8,300 | 8,300 | 0 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 2,800 | 2,800 | 0 | 4,100 | 4,100 | 1,600 |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 4,450 | 4,450 | 0 | 3,000 | 3,000 | 0 |
| 🇦🇫 Afghanistan | 2,500 | 2,500 | 0 | 2,600 | 2,600 | 0 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 300 | 300 | 0 | 300 | 300 | 0 |
🌐 WORLD TOTAL:
- 2024/25: 1,167,800 MT (supply), 1,331,700 MT (total), 331,500 MT (ending stock)
- 2025/26: 1,130,650 MT (crop), 1,462,150 MT (total supply)
- World Consumption: 1,000,200 MT (2024/25)
🔎 Key Takeaways
🇺🇸 USA Leads the Surge
- 726,400 MT projected for 2025/26 — a major increase of 44% YoY.
- Ending stock forecast more than doubles to 181,600 MT.
- Positions the U.S. as the clear global pistachio leader.
🇹🇷 Türkiye's Production Collapses
- Plummeting from 415,500 MT ➝ 143,000 MT in one year.
- Reflects the freeze event and orchard stress.
- Despite large carryover stock, total availability is limited to 386,400 MT.
🇮🇷 Iran Holds Steady
- Moderate rebound from 200,000 to 220,000 MT.
- Iran's market remains solid with stable carry-in and demand.
📦 Market Dynamics
- Total world pistachio supply up: from 1.331M MT (2024/25) to 1.462M MT (2025/26).
- Global consumption at 1M MT, suggesting continued supply tightness into 2026.
- Türkiye’s lower crop likely to push demand toward U.S. and Iran-origin product.
🔮 Outlook 2025/26
- Expect strong early shipments, especially from U.S. packers.
- Kernel demand continues to outpace expectations, keeping prices firm.
- Buyers should prepare for potential logistics constraints and pre-harvest forward bookings.
📈 U.S. dominance. Turkish volatility. And global demand not slowing.
Pistachios are entering a new era of strategic sourcing and kernel-led innovation.
