Global Walnut Market 2025/26: Supply Growth, Key Producers & Consumption Trends
🌰 Estimated World Walnut Production 2025/26
China Holds Ground, Chile Surges, U.S. Gains Marginally
The 2025/26 global walnut crop is projected to reach 1.21 million metric tons on a kernel basis, with China maintaining dominance, Chile showing significant growth, and U.S. production inching forward. Overall, world supply rises slightly, supporting stable consumption and stock levels.
📊 Global Walnut Production Summary (Kernel Basis, Metric Tons)
| Country | 2024/25 Crop | 2024/25 Total Supply | 2024/25 Ending Stock | 2025/26 Crop | 2025/26 Total Supply | 2025/26 Ending Stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | 682,000 | 704,000 | 8,800 | 682,000 | 690,800 | 26,400 |
| 🇺🇸 USA* | 238,800 | 275,300 | 31,700 | 271,000 | 302,700 | 30,000 |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | 61,900 | 62,155 | 185 | 77,300 | 77,485 | 275 |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | 34,590 | 35,000 | 620 | 40,300 | 40,920 | 480 |
| 🇷🇴 Romania | 17,600 | 18,040 | 530 | 21,500 | 22,030 | 320 |
| 🇹🇷 Türkiye | 19,200 | 19,200 | 0 | 18,800 | 18,800 | 0 |
| 🇫🇷 France | 10,500 | 10,500 | 0 | 16,800 | 16,800 | 0 |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | 14,400 | 14,400 | 0 | 15,900 | 15,900 | 0 |
| 🇮🇳 India | 10,900 | 14,200 | 1,150 | 9,900 | 11,050 | 990 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 9,000 | 9,430 | 0 | 9,900 | 9,900 | 0 |
| 🇲🇩 Moldova | 7,250 | 7,382 | 165 | 8,500 | 8,665 | 120 |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 5,200 | 5,200 | 0 | 7,600 | 7,600 | 0 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 6,700 | 6,700 | 0 | 6,800 | 6,800 | 0 |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 6,020 | 6,020 | 0 | 4,800 | 4,800 | 80 |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 5,700 | 5,700 | 0 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 0 |
| 🌐 Others | 9,650 | 9,650 | 0 | 10,300 | 10,300 | 0 |
🌍 Key Insights
🇨🇳 China
- Still leads globally with a stable crop of 682,000 MT, accounting for more than 55% of global walnut output.
- Stock buildup forecasted with ending stock growing to 26,400 MT.
🇺🇸 United States
- Estimated +13% YoY growth in crop size to 271,000 MT.
- Total supply forecast at 302,700 MT, ending stock near flat.
🇨🇱 Chile
- Biggest mover: Crop increases from 61,900 MT to 77,300 MT — a +25% gain.
- Chile emerges as a rising star in the Southern Hemisphere.
🇫🇷 France & 🇷🇴 Romania
- France jumps from 10,500 to 16,800 MT — signaling recovery.
- Romania also improves by +22%.
🌐 Global Totals
- 2024/25 Total Crop: 1,139,410 MT
- 2025/26 Total Crop: 1,205,900 MT
- 2025/26 Total Supply: 1,249,050 MT
- World Consumption (Supply - Ending Stock): 1,159,727 MT
🔮 Outlook for 2025/26
- Overall supply is up 5.8%, but China’s flat production means no single country will carry the market.
- U.S. and Chile are likely to capture more demand, especially for higher-quality kernels.
- Prices may remain firm if demand stays in step with modest gains in supply.
🧠 The global walnut market is stable—but increasingly diversified. Chile is rising, the U.S. is strong, and China remains the anchor.
