Pine Nuts Market Report: 2026 Supply Tight, China Crop Down Hard

Heads up: all numbers below are USD, metric tons, mostly in-shell basis unless I flag otherwise. Data as of 2026-06-03 - full sourcing in the Source Notes at the end.

🎯 The 30-second version

World pine nut crop is down to 84,590 MT in-shell. China is down 73%. That is the whole market right now.

If you're planning Q3 and Q4 coverage, or you're buying EU-bound kernels with tight specs, this matters. Three minutes here saves you a messy origin/spec mistake later.

▼ WORLD CROP
84,590 MT
2025/26 in-shell crop, versus 174,005 MT last year.
Supply shock is real.
▼ KERNEL CROP
25,762 MT
2025/26 kernel basis, versus 44,840 MT last year.
Less usable kernel around.
▼ ENDING STOCKS
17,250 MT
World ending stocks, from 38,110 MT beginning stocks.
Buffer is being eaten.
▲ MEDITERRANEAN CROP
8,590 MT
Pinus pinea in-shell crop, helped mainly by Türkiye.
Helpful, but small.

📋 What's actually happening

INC says the 2025/26 world in-shell crop is 84,590 MT. That's not a small trim. That's a hard reset from last season's 174,005 MT.

INC also puts world total supply at 122,700 MT in-shell, with ending stocks down to 17,250 MT. So yes, demand has slowed in spots. But the supply cushion has still been cut hard.

Commodity Board's China read has FOB Dalian non-organic kernels easing a touch, not breaking. The latest quoted range was EUR 14.6-14.8/kg for 950 count and EUR 14.1-14.2/kg for 1200 count. Different currency, same message: buyers are resisting, sellers are not panicking.

Here's the catch: China demand is not roaring. INC called out limited supply and sluggish consumption, with high prices hurting some mass-consumption segments. That caps the upside for now.

Put it together: this is not a runaway bull market today, but it is a tight-quality market. That matters most if you're buying clean kernels, fixed origin, EU specs, or branded retail packs.

🌍 The pine nuts supply picture

The global balance is tight because the Asian crop did the damage. Mediterranean supply improved, but it is too small to fully offset the Asian contraction.

Key balance points:

  • Opening stocks: 38,110 MT in-shell.
  • 2025/26 world crop: 84,590 MT in-shell.
  • Total supply: 122,700 MT in-shell.
  • Ending stocks: 17,250 MT in-shell.
  • Kernel basis crop: 25,762 MT, versus 44,840 MT last season.
  • Last recorded world consumption: 41,876 MT kernel basis for 2024/25.

Worth knowing: don't compare Mediterranean and Asian kernels like they are the same product. They are not. Mediterranean Pinus pinea carries a different buyer base, taste profile and price logic. Asian pine nuts are the volume market. If someone offers cheap material without clear origin and count, slow down.

💡 WHAT IT MEANS
If you're covered through summer, fine. If you're uncovered into Q4, don't assume a weak demand tone means easy replacement. The issue is not just price. It's origin, count, freshness, oxidation risk and documentation.

🇨🇳 What's going on in China

China is still the center of gravity.

  • China 2025/26 crop: 30,000 MT in-shell.
  • China 2024/25 crop: 111,500 MT in-shell.
  • China total supply: 60,000 MT in-shell, versus 131,500 MT last season.
  • China ending stocks: 1,500 MT in-shell.
  • China processing role: INC classifies China as a processing country.
  • China imports: 15,411 MT kernel-equivalent in calendar 2023.

Commodity Board also describes the same trade structure we all know in practice: China imports in-shell material from Mongolia, Russia, Afghanistan and Pakistan, then exports kernels.

So when China crop is short, it doesn't just hit Chinese origin. It pulls attention onto every nearby origin that can be cracked, sorted and shipped through the Chinese processing chain. That's why Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia, Mongolia and North Korea matter even when your label says China.

🛡️ Quality stuff (yes, EU buyers - read this)

Quality is where this market can hurt you. Pine nuts are expensive, oily and origin-sensitive. Rancidity, oxidation, moisture, broken percentage, foreign matter and origin mixing all matter.

UNECE DDP-12 gives the commercial quality framework for pine nut kernels after preparation and packaging. That's useful, but the commercial fight is still in the contract: count, origin, crop year, broken tolerance, vacuum packing, peroxide value, free fatty acids, moisture, microbiology and pesticide residue plan.

EU buyers also need to keep contaminants and residue controls front and center. EU Regulation 2023/915 sets maximum levels for contaminants including aflatoxins. EU pesticide monitoring also has moving parts, including lambda-cyhalothrin MRL changes and tebufenozide work covering tree nuts including pine nut kernels.

⚠️ EU ALERT
Recent nut-sector aflatoxin tightening identified in the source pack is pistachio-specific, not pine-nut-specific. Still, pine nuts remain inside the broader EU contaminant-control world. Don't treat that as optional paperwork.

Practical takeaway: for EU-bound loads, I'd rather pay for traceable, fresh, well-packed kernels than chase a discount lot with vague origin and weak COA coverage. Pine nuts don't forgive sloppy buying.

🌐 Where the pine nuts are coming from

🇨🇳 China
Crop:
30,000 MT in-shell

Total supply:
60,000 MT in-shell

Driver: Short crop, low ending stocks, still the processing hub.
🇰🇵 North Korea
Crop:
20,000 MT in-shell

Last season:
30,000 MT in-shell

Driver: Smaller crop but still a major Asian supply piece.
🇹🇷 Türkiye
Crop:
7,600 MT in-shell

Mediterranean share:
Main support for Pinus pinea

Driver: Better Mediterranean availability, but not volume-market replacement.

Russia/Siberia is pencilled at 11,000 MT in-shell, down from 15,000 MT. The product can matter, but payment and sanctions screening matter too. If you touch Russian-linked supply, don't separate commercial work from compliance work.

Afghanistan is the big mover on paper at 7,800 MT in-shell, and Pakistan is at 5,200 MT in-shell. Both are important for chilgoza-style supply and China-linked processing flows. But the spring moisture signals are mixed for Afghanistan, while Pakistan's outlook is wetter and warmer, with waterlogging, heat stress and pest pressure flagged.

Portugal and Spain are tiny this year in the INC table: 60 MT and 50 MT in-shell. So if someone is selling you large volumes as Iberian origin, ask more questions.

📊 Who's buying what

Visible raw pine nut transaction unit prices, USD/kg

United States
 29.85
Afghanistan
 26.46
South Korea
 19.85
Pakistan
 17.16
China
 16.06
💡 READING THE CHART
This is a visible price signal, not a full demand-volume table. The real demand story is still high-value food use: pesto, sauces, bakery, confectionery, foodservice and premium retail packs. Inflation keeps substitution risk alive in price-sensitive channels.

💧 Other stuff worth knowing

  • Freight: Drewry's World Container Index was USD 2,800 per 40ft, with Shanghai-Rotterdam at USD 2,861/40ft and Shanghai-Los Angeles at USD 3,473/40ft.
  • Red Sea / Middle East routing: CMA CGM listed an Emergency Conflict Surcharge of USD 3,000 per 40ft dry container on relevant scopes. Maersk listed a global Emergency Bunker Surcharge of USD 400 per 40ft dry headhaul. MSC listed Northern Europe to Red Sea EFS at USD 140 per dry TEU.
  • 🇪🇺 EU customs: Shelled pine nuts sit under CN 0802 92 00 in the 2026 Combined Nomenclature.
  • 🇺🇸 U.S. tariffs: Pignolia and non-pignolia pine nuts, in-shell and shelled, were added to reciprocal-duty exclusions for entries from mid-November 2025.
  • 🇷🇺 Russia: Payments need sanctions screening. Also, the cited Russian export-duty wording names unpeeled/in-shell/in-cone cedar nuts, not shelled kernels.
  • 🇦🇫 Afghanistan: Agricultural-commodity general licenses exist, but correspondent banking disruption remains a practical payment risk.
  • 🇺🇸 U.S. food safety: FDA import-alert risk areas include undeclared allergens, foreign suppliers refusing FDA inspection and importer FSVP noncompliance.

✅ If I were you, I'd...

I wouldn't chase this market blindly. But I also wouldn't leave Q4 uncovered just because China demand is quiet today. Pine nuts are too quality-sensitive for last-minute buying.

✅ Split Asian and Mediterranean needs. Don't treat them as interchangeable.
✅ Cover known Q3-Q4 industrial demand in layers. Leave room, but don't leave yourself naked.
✅ Lock specs before price. Count, origin, crop year, broken percentage and packing first.
✅ Ask for fresh COA and residue plan early. Especially if you're EU-bound.
✅ Watch China replacement behavior. If Chinese processors bid up nearby origins, offers can disappear quickly.
✅ Build freight clauses cleanly. War-risk and emergency surcharges need contract wording, not after-the-fact arguments.
✅ Screen Russia and Afghanistan payments upfront. Don't solve banking after the goods are ready.

Bottom line: the practical move is to secure qualified lots sooner rather than wait for cheap, perfect, fully documented product to show up when everyone else needs it too.

💬 Looking for something specific?
Just hit reply - tell me what tonnage you need and when, and I'll come back to you with origins that fit your specs.
Or copy-paste one of these:
→ "Send me EU-bound Chinese 950 count options"
→ "Quote Mediterranean Pinus pinea only"
→ "Help me compare China vs Pakistan/Afghanistan supply"
→ Reply to this email

Talk soon,

Constantinos Cardassilaris Cardassilaris Family · International food brokers since 1862

🔗 Source Notes

Every figure above, with its exact date and link, consolidated here for compliance.

  1. INC Nutfruit March 2026 - world crop, supply, ending stocks, Asian and Mediterranean crop splits, China balance, kernel crop, consumption and China demand comments - as of 2026-03-01 - https://inc.nutfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Nutfruit_March2026_LowRes_links_.pdf
  2. Mundus Agri pine nuts tight supplies - year-on-year production comparisons and kernel-basis production table - as of 2026-03-27 - https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/pine-nuts-tight-supplies-impact-consumption-china.n36886.html
  3. INC Statistical Yearbook 2024 - China as processing country and 15,411 MT kernel-equivalent imports - as of 2025-01-09 - https://inc.nutfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Statistical-Yearbook-2024.pdf
  4. Commodity Board China FOB Dalian pine nuts - 950 count and 1200 count FOB Dalian price indications and grade spread - as of 2026-05-24 - https://commodity-board.com/chinese-pine-nut-fob-prices-in-dalian-edge-lower-on-quiet-buying/
  5. Commodity Board China hub note - China importing in-shell nuts and exporting kernels - as of 2026-03-20 - https://commodity-board.com/china-pine-nuts-fob-dalian-hold-firm-as-trade-flows-stay-supportive/
  6. Tridge raw pine nuts market overview - visible raw pine nut transaction unit prices and demand-use references - as of 2026-05-01 - https://www.tridge.com/market-overview/raw-pine-nuts#import
  7. USDA FAS EU Tree Nuts Annual 2025 - EU food processing and snack-industry demand context - as of 2025-09-17 - https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Tree+Nuts+Annual_Madrid_European+Union_E42025-0004.pdf
  8. USDA FAS EU Tree Nuts Annual 2024 - inflation and cheaper-option substitution risk - as of 2024-09-19 - https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Tree+Nuts+Annual_Madrid_European+Union_E42024-0028
  9. UNECE DDP-12 Pine Nut Kernels - commercial quality requirements for pine nut kernels - as of 2025-04-01 - https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2025-04/ECE_CTCS_WP.7_GE.2_2025_010E_PineNutKernels.pdf
  10. European Commission contaminants legislation - Regulation 2023/915 and aflatoxin contaminant controls - as of 2026-05-27 - https://food.ec.europa.eu/food-safety/chemical-safety/contaminants/legislation_en
  11. European Commission MRL legislation - Regulation 2025/115 and lambda-cyhalothrin MRL changes - as of 2025-01-21 - https://food.ec.europa.eu/plants/pesticides/maximum-residue-levels/eu-legislation-mrls_en
  12. EFSA tebufenozide assessment - tebufenozide MRL application covering tree nuts including pine nut kernels - as of 2026-02-01 - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12793891/
  13. China National Meteorological Center agromet monthly - northeast China thaw and localized soil-moisture deficits - as of 2026-04-05 - https://www.nmc.cn/publish/agro/monthly/index.html?v=2026040508
  14. Pakistan Meteorological Department AMJ 2026 outlook - rainfall, heat stress, waterlogging and pest-risk outlook for chilgoza regions - as of 2026-05-13 - https://weather.gov.pk/storage/uploads/namc/seasonal-weather/pdfs/AgroClimatic%20Outlook_AMJ2026%D9%80_English.pdf
  15. FEWS NET Afghanistan seasonal monitor - Afghanistan precipitation deficits and regional moisture context - as of 2026-03-03 - https://fews.net/middle-east-and-asia/afghanistan/seasonal-monitor/march-2026
  16. USGS FEWS Afghanistan April monitor - below-average cumulative precipitation and localized improvements - as of 2026-04-29 - https://edcintl.cr.usgs.gov/downloads/sciweb1/shared/fews/web/Seasonal%20Monitors/Afghanistan/2025_26/Afghanistan%20Seasonal%20Monitor%20-%20April%202026.pdf
  17. JRC European crop conditions - mixed spring conditions in Italy and Türkiye - as of 2026-04-27 - https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/favourable-crop-conditions-across-europe-2026-04-27_en
  18. JRC European drought situation - watch drought conditions in western Iberia and other regions - as of 2026-05-29 - https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/european-and-global-drought-observatories/current-drought-situation-europe_en
  19. Threatened Conifers / IUCN Pinus gerardiana - Near Threatened status and over-exploitation risks - as of 2019-12-13 - https://threatenedconifers.rbge.org.uk/conifers/pinus-gerardiana
  20. Drewry World Container Index - WCI composite, Shanghai-Rotterdam and Shanghai-Los Angeles freight rates - as of 2026-05-28 - https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry
  21. CMA CGM Emergency Conflict Surcharge - Middle East / Red Sea-related emergency surcharge levels - as of 2026-03-01 - https://www.cma-cgm.com/assets/public/documents/Update%2002%20-%20Amdt%20-%20Customer%20Advisory%20-%20ME%20Situation%20-%20ECS.pdf
  22. Maersk Emergency Bunker Surcharge - headhaul dry and reefer surcharge levels - as of 2026-03-24 - https://www.maersk.com/~/media_sc9/maersk/local-information/files/west-central-asia/Pakistan/overview/240326-customer-advisory-operational-update-14-middle-east-situation.pdf
  23. MSC Emergency Fuel Surcharge - Northern Europe to Red Sea dry and reefer TEU charges - as of 2026-05-20 - https://www.msc.com/en/newsroom/customer-advisories/2026/may/efs-trade-from-northern-europe-inc-uk-and-scanbaltic-to-red-sea-and-east-africa
  24. EU 2026 Combined Nomenclature - CN 0802 92 00 for shelled pine nuts - as of 2026-03-23 - https://statistiques.public.lu/dam-assets/fr/enquetes/enquetes-entreprises/intrastat-commerce-exterieur/codes2026-engl/cn8-offi-en-2026.pdf
  25. INC tariff report update - U.S. reciprocal-tariff exclusions for pignolia and non-pignolia pine nuts - as of 2025-12-01 - https://inc.nutfruit.org/inc-tariff-report-updates-6/
  26. OFAC Russia CAPTA FAQ - U.S. financial-institution restrictions for listed Russian banks - as of 2022-03-26 - https://ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/967
  27. Council of the EU Russia sanctions explainer - EU restrictions on Russian financial messaging and listed banks - as of 2026-05-01 - https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/sanctions-against-russia-explained/?os=f
  28. OFAC Afghanistan General Licenses - agricultural-commodity general license framework - as of 2026-06-03 - https://ofac.treasury.gov/selected-general-licenses-issued-ofac
  29. FDA import alerts - detention without physical examination, FSVP and broader import-alert environment - as of 2026-05-29 - https://www.fda.gov/industry/actions-enforcement/import-alerts
  30. Garant Russian export duty text - duty wording limited to unpeeled/in-shell/in-cone cedar nuts - as of 2025-10-03 - https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/412697173/

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading, investment or procurement advice. Market conditions change rapidly and figures may be revised. Cardassilaris Family P.C. — international food brokers since 1862.

Constantinos Cardassilaris