Import growth serves onward trade
Türkiye expects pistachio imports to rise in MY 2026/27 while domestic consumption is forecast to fall. Trade reports indicate that incoming nuts mainly serve processors and overseas customers, rather than Turkish households.
Processors bring material in for sizing, roasting and packing before shipping it abroad. Some imports stay in warehouses for later export. An arrival can therefore support future export business without adding nuts to domestic retail shelves.
The customs structure reinforces that separation. Domestic entry carries a substantial MFN duty, while qualifying free-zone processing for re-export is exempt. Removal of the additional U.S. retaliatory tariff improved American origin’s relative treatment; the separate domestic-entry duty remains.
Rising imports point to onward-trade activity, not easier access for Turkish consumers. Suppliers selling to processors depend mainly on export business, rather than a recovery in local spending.
Imported origin, Turkish processing
U.S. and Iranian pistachios have historically supplied most of Türkiye’s re-export business through Turkish free zones. Both origins also led imports in MY 2025/26. American material supplied the majority, and its share increased compared with MY 2024/25.
Exports are predominantly shelled. Leading destinations include Syria and Iraq, alongside Italy and Germany, giving processors exposure to several markets beyond Türkiye.
U.S. shipments to Türkiye rose sharply in September 2026 compared with September 2025. The full-season export outlook still depends on steady demand for re-exported nuts.
A purchase through Türkiye can therefore combine Turkish processing with nuts grown elsewhere; the processing location alone does not identify the crop’s origin.
Affordability weighs on domestic use
Market reports indicate that high consumer costs are weighing on domestic use, particularly pistachio snacking. Official forecasts also link the expected seasonal decline in consumption to rising costs for pistachios and desserts containing them.
Confectionery accounts for most estimated domestic use, particularly baklava. Snack weakness therefore describes one important outlet, rather than movement across every ingredient application. Walnuts offer a cheaper option in some desserts and might attract substitution demand as pistachios become more expensive.
Longer-term changes continue alongside that pressure. Pistachios have found broader uses in chocolate, ice cream and other desserts. Urban consumers are also moving toward packaged supermarket nuts. Loose sales still have a place within snacking, while convenience and discount shopping are expected to lift the packaged proportion.
The commercial picture differs between snack purchases and confectionery requirements. A shift toward supermarket packs changes suppliers’ sales channels without necessarily increasing total use.
Carryover does not guarantee stock release
The domestic harvest offers only modest relief. Production is forecast to recover in MY 2026/27, but remains weak for a nominal on-year. Industry sources say trees remain under stress following the record MY 2024/25 harvest, with localized frost damage from MY 2025/26 also contributing. Spring hail added damage in some growing areas.
Historically, Turkish-grown nuts have mainly been consumed at home. Carryover from that record harvest continues to support this domestic balance. The ending-stock outlook assumes restrained consumption and traders selling only part of their holdings. Market reports say many traders hold pistachios as a way to protect their money against inflation.
Stored nuts help buyers only when holders offer them for sale. For domestic suppliers, competition depends on the modest harvest recovery and how much carryover reaches the market.
Upstream supply remains constrained
Industry sources describe a tighter upstream market for Turkish processors. The U.S. crop is expected to be sharply smaller than the preceding record harvest. Iranian expectations also point to a smaller new crop, with limited fresh selling and rial depreciation accompanying that restraint.
Iran nevertheless carried substantial inventory beyond the completed crop-2025 marketing year, when annual exports declined. Most opening inventory was used during the season, counting exports and estimated domestic consumption. Some final-month exports fulfilled earlier commitments, so shipment activity and fresh business were moving on different tracks.
Trade reports identify kernel demand as the main driver of Iranian pistachio exports. Kernels, green kernels and closed-shell raw material represented a large part of that trade. Trade reports describe Türkiye as taking a larger share of Iran’s destination mix in MY 2025/26.
Iranian exporters face higher freight, insurance and logistics costs, alongside regulatory difficulties. Processor demand in Türkiye is exposed to these upstream supply constraints, so buying through Turkish processors still leaves buyers dependent on conditions at origin.
Market Reading
Actual arrivals and onward shipments are the next developments to watch, alongside ingredient buying abroad and snack movement within Türkiye. Later consumption assessments will help show how the domestic season is developing.
Pistachio ingredient use is expanding among European food manufacturers. Manufacturers can work with broken material or smaller nuts, as well as paste, rather than requiring the presentation sought for snacking. Acceptance still depends on consistent flavour, colour and safety, along with food-safety documentation.
The route also affects EU food-safety controls. Turkish and Iranian pistachios face special controls, while some American-grown nuts sent through Türkiye are also checked.
Finished specifications and the dispatch route matter to acceptance, even when processing takes place in Türkiye.
For U.S. Pistachio Inshell, new crop, 21-27, these are market indications, not firm offers: - Golden Hills - 7.30USD/lb - Kerman - 7.20USD/lb FOB Mersin; 25kg PP bags; natural open, Extra no 1; shipment from Mersin 1st half of December; subject to unsold/reconfirmation