2026 Macadamia Market Outlook: Global Supply and Buying Strategy
📦 Global output is moving higher
The 2026 global macadamia production forecast points to an increase of approximately 15%, taking output to nearly 393,000 metric tonnes on an in-shell-equivalent basis. This is a forecast rather than a final crop result, but it changes the starting point for procurement discussions.
The market is looking at broader production growth, not the uniform scarcity that often pushes buyers into broad early coverage. Availability can still differ by origin, grade and shipment window, so the global headline needs to be tested against executable offers.
The supply outlook published on 2026-06-10 forecast that increasing harvest activity would add materially to global availability over the following 2–3 months. That nearby window was an expectation, not confirmation that export-ready kernel would arrive evenly or on schedule.
Processing progress, quality results and logistics still determine when harvested material becomes useful supply. Watch how quickly refreshed offers appear and whether sellers can confirm readiness for the required shipment period.
📈 Supply growth eases the urgency to cover broadly
Trade commentary describes a cautious near-term pricing environment as consumption gains trail the increase in supply. It also points to more comfortable inventories and moderating prices at the global level.
This does not mean every specification will move together. It does mean an open requirement no longer has to be treated as one urgent block. Buyers have more room to test differences in origin, product format and delivery timing while keeping core demand protected.
🎯 Buyer Decision
Cover production-critical requirements first, then split discretionary demand across several buying points. Ask suppliers to refresh terms for the exact volume, format and shipment needed rather than relying on a broad market indication.
For where the market sits today, new crop from South African processors is indicated at around SA Origin Style 1L: $7.10/lb FOB, with SA Origin Style 1S: $6.60/lb FOB also indicated close to that level. These are market indications, not firm offers.
Reply for a firm offer on a specific volume and shipment.