Macadamia Market Outlook: Grade-Specific Supply and Buyer Strategy
The market signal 📈
Macadamias are no longer giving buyers one clean market signal. Our market read is that high-quality whole kernels remain scarce enough to keep pricing firm. Lean carry-forward stock and early-season positioning are still lending support in the near term.
At the same time, harvesting is advancing across origins and may bring more kernel supply into the market. That flow could gradually soften lower grades, but this remains an expectation rather than a confirmed move.
The important distinction is where any easing appears first. Specifications that can use lower grades have more exposure to harvest-led pressure, while premium whole-kernel availability remains restricted.
What it means for buyers 🎯
That makes a single buying stance a poor fit. Split procurement by end use and the point at which substitution stops being acceptable.
For programmes where intact kernels are essential, cover confirmed volumes selectively rather than waiting for broad market softness. A cheaper general market is little help if the required whole grade is unavailable for the shipment window.
For ingredient uses that can accept lower or substitutable grades, keep more room to buy as new-crop material reaches processors. Split commitments where practical, securing the non-negotiable portion and leaving optional tonnage open.
This keeps whole-kernel availability risk separate from the possibility of better lower-grade value later. Define grade, volume and timing before discussing alternatives with suppliers.
Buyer Decision
Watch crop revisions and early quality results; today, the market sits at approximately these FOB levels.
S4 – Australia – FOB basis: around $5.77/lb
S5 – Australia – FOB basis: around $5.36/lb
S6 – Australia – FOB basis: around $5.20/lb
S7 – Australia – FOB basis: around $5.20/lb
S4 – Various/African – FOB basis: around $4.74/lb
S5 – Various/African – FOB basis: around $4.48/lb
S6 – Various/African – FOB basis: around $4.33/lb
S7 – Various/African – FOB basis: around $4.12/lb
These are indications, never firm offers; reply with your specific volume and shipment requirement for a firm offer.