Australia Macadamia Crop Outlook: Recovery After Forecast Downgrade

📈 Recovery holds after the downgrade

Australia’s early climate model put the 2026 crop at 59,080 metric tonnes, in shell, measured at 3.5% moisture. The June harvest review cut that forecast to 56,888 tonnes on the same basis. Even so, output is expected to surpass the weather-hit 2025 total of 43,800 metric tonnes, also in shell at 3.5% moisture.

The recovery differs by district, and orchards in some areas are still working back from repeated wet seasons. There is clearly more crop this year, but the revised forecast does not support a bumper-season view.

💡 This range uses an in-shell basis at 10% moisture. It cannot be compared directly with crop figures measured at 3.5% moisture. It also says nothing by itself about kernel yield, grades or stock ready for shipment. Use it as a national forecast, not as proof that a processor can supply a particular specification.

📦 Why more crop does not mean unrestricted supply

By 15 July 2026, crews had yet to complete collection across several districts in New South Wales and southeastern Queensland. Continued rain delayed fieldwork in those areas. Farther south, longer exposure on orchard floors raised the chance of quality deterioration.

Key constraints remain:

  • Several regions also reported disappointing kernel recovery early in the season, though results improved as harvesting advanced.
  • Smaller nuts in certain varieties remain another constraint on yield.
  • Until processing catches up, the national crop estimate cannot confirm which specifications and shipment windows each processor can cover.

🎯 Buyer Decision

Cover requirements in stages rather than placing the whole programme against the national projection. For near-term business, ask processors to confirm saleable kernel, expected recovery, packing dates and shipment readiness. Leave some flexibility for later needs while outstanding intake moves through processing.

Today’s levels are indications only.

Australian origin — Style 1L: around $7.20/lb FOB
Australian origin — Style 1S: around $6.90/lb
Australian origin — Style 4L: around $5.95/lb
South African origin — Style 1L: around $7.15/lb FOB
South African origin — Style 1S: around $6.65/lb
South African origin — Style 4L: around $4.95/lb
Other African origins — Style 1L: approximately $6.85/lb FOB
Other African origins — Style 1S: approximately $6.65/lb
Other African origins — Style 4L: approximately $4.95/lb

These are not firm offers.

Reply for a firm offer on specific volume and shipment.

🔗 Source Notes

Constantinos Cardassilaris