California Almond Market Outlook: Firm Bias and Buyer Strategy

📈 The market signal

The California almond market remains firm with a modestly bullish bias, although conditions do not point to an unrestricted advance.

The following factors are expected to support pricing through August and September:

  • Limited old-crop availability
  • Demand for early 2026-crop shipment
  • Interest in inshell product
  • Purchasing ahead of forthcoming holidays

Buyers should plan for continued firmness, while recognising that grade, specification and shipment window may affect individual positions as the harvest outlook takes shape.

📦 What it means for buyers

Keeping the entire programme open presents increasing risk, especially where precise specifications or prompt delivery are essential. Even so, healthy overall supply does not support an extreme shortage case, and market direction may vary across grades, qualities and shipment periods as new harvest information emerges.

A staged purchasing strategy offers the most practical balance: secure priority requirements in manageable tranches while retaining room to adjust discretionary volume. This approach limits exposure to near-term firmness without locking in the full programme before crop availability becomes clearer.

Buyers with strict quality tolerances, limited substitution options or fixed delivery dates should address those requirements first; more flexible needs can remain open for later coverage.

🎯 Buyer Decision

Build cover gradually for essential volume and keep less urgent requirements flexible until the harvest outlook is more settled.

Current indications:

  • CTS 30/32 AOL: 3.54 $/lbs
  • CT SSR 30/32 AOL: 3.49 $/lbs
  • NPX 27/30: 3.99 $/lbs
  • NPX 30/32: 3.94 $/lbs

These prices are indications only, not firm offers, and remain subject to availability, specification and shipment timing.

To obtain a firm offer aligned with your programme, reply with the required volume, quality parameters and preferred shipment period.

Constantinos Cardassilaris