A larger pool still to sell
California’s September balance contained more almonds still available to sell. Outstanding commitments—almonds sold but awaiting delivery—were lower than in September last season. Computed inventory, the supply left after completed shipments, increased. Uncommitted inventory, what remained after deducting those delivery obligations, rose more sharply. More of that inventory was unsold than committed.
The increase did not come from a heavier opening carry-in. Almonds carried into this season were lower than last season. September’s larger unsold pool left suppliers with more volume to place, even though completed shipments were ahead of last season.
Harvest speed brought supply forward
The harvest calendar explains much of that faster intake. Crop development and harvesting ran ahead of last season. Post-bloom heat appears to have accelerated maturity, while favorable orchard and weather conditions helped hullers and shellers work through material faster. Maturity was also compressed, bringing more of the harvest through within a shorter period. This lifted the September inventory balance despite stronger shipments, rather than proving a larger final crop.
By late October, orchard harvesting was largely finished and fresh deliveries were falling away. Remaining processing plants had turned to almonds harvested earlier and held in stockpiles, including pollinizer varieties. A few delayed Monterey and Fritz plantings were still being collected, with localized thunderstorms interrupting the final work.
Most remaining operators expected to finish processing before Thanksgiving, while larger plants aimed for mid-December. Earlier processing brought almonds into the selling pool sooner, giving customers access ahead of the usual timetable and bringing forward suppliers’ selling work.
Availability differs by specification
Kernel weight is the other part of the harvest story. Receipts showed small kernels across varieties and less moisture than last season. Both reduced the weight coming through and weighed on assessed crop potential. Pollinizer yields also disappointed, particularly Butte/Padre and California varieties. Nonpareil and Independence performance varied by region.
The commercial mix was uneven too. Whole-and-broken manufacturing material appears plentiful, while whole kernels are harder to find in the sizes needed. Larger kernels were particularly difficult to find. That leaves a different supply picture for a paste manufacturer than for a customer needing large, intact almonds.
Harvest rejects were generally low, although Independence suffered brown spot and susceptible varieties experienced increased navel orangeworm losses. Small sizing and quality damage are separate issues in this crop.
Exports lead an uneven sales picture
Sales and shipments have been stronger than the lower outstanding order book alone suggests. Combined shipped and committed business was ahead of last season. September brought a recovery in new sales, while sales across the opening months were broadly level with last season. Export bookings increased as domestic purchasing fell sharply.
The outstanding order book followed that split. Domestic commitments declined, while export commitments edged higher. Completed export shipments also strengthened, whereas domestic shipments weakened in both opening months.
India took substantially more California almonds, and export growth leaned heavily toward inshell. Northeast Asia strengthened too. European shipments softened overall, but country performance differed. Middle Eastern flows were uneven, with destination movements reflecting inventory channels as well as local purchasing.
Competing supply shapes the outlets
Australia is part of the competition for those outlets. Its suppliers have been placing lower-grade kernels from a wet, quality-challenged harvest into Indian food manufacturing. Indian purchases extend into bakery, confectionery, sweets and snacks, giving manufacturers alternatives beyond traditional inshell supply.
Delivery and affordability still influence that business. Some India-bound festival vessels were delayed. Shipping disruption and rupee weakness have raised landed costs, while price-sensitive customers have reduced quantities or traded down. Repeat purchasing will depend partly on how quickly earlier California dispatches move through destination stocks.
China offers a mixed outlet. Direct California shipments rebounded, but broader demand has cooled. There appears to be a growing preference for ready-to-use kernels. Australia benefits from tariff-free access, shorter shipping distances and its counter-seasonal harvest. California is still regarded as a high-quality origin among bakery and food-service customers.
Selling stock and the seasonal balance
The next part of the season rests on repeat orders and how quickly almonds already shipped move through local stocks. As processing winds down, the remaining crop will become clearer too.
World production is expected to grow modestly. Higher yields in Spain and Portugal, together with an expansion in Australia’s harvested area, are forecast to more than offset a smaller United States crop. That Australian increase concerns the following calendar-year harvest, not fresh November supply.
Consumption and exports are also forecast to rise, with less stock remaining at season end. Buyers have more choice in California’s early selling pool, and suppliers have more unsold volume competing for selective orders. But the wider seasonal balance gives little support to treating that early increase as a lasting surplus.
For the grades below, market levels are around:
• Independence Extra 25/27 AOL — $3.83 USD/lb • FAS • Independence Extra 27/30 AOL — $3.78 USD/lb • FAS • Carmel Type SSR 27/30 AOL — $3.73 USD/lb • FAS • BP SSR 36/40 AOL — $3.68 USD/lb • FAS • Standard 5% — $3.53 USD/lb • FAS
These are indications, never firm offers. Reply with your requirements for a firm offer.