The market signal
Good whole kernels are scarce after the short previous crop in South Africa and Australia left carry-in stocks tight. The incoming crop is expected to recover across the main origins, but a bigger harvest does not automatically mean more saleable wholes. Quality and the share meeting whole-kernel specifications will matter.
China has removed its import duty on South African in-shell nuts and kernels, which could support more contracting over time. Chinese in-shell buyers remain slow, expecting further softening. South African suppliers now have better access to that market, but hesitant demand means the trade benefit may take time to come through.
What it means for buyers and sellers
Early estimates point to a strong South African crop recovery, though persistent heavy rain in key growing areas raises operational and quality concerns. Australian field reports suggest healthy nut development, with harvest weather still important. A weaker US dollar against the Australian dollar adds pressure to export returns there. Early signs also suggest a stronger Kenyan harvest; any change to its in-shell export ban would alter the kernel balance. Origin competitiveness rests on saleable output and trade conditions, not crop size alone.
Healthy-snacking and ingredient demand remains steady rather than accelerating. Competition for in-shell nuts and high farmgate costs leave processors exposed if kernel values soften, limiting their room to accommodate buyers.
Market Reading
Our near-term reading remains firm. Slow Chinese purchasing could add downward pressure if demand fails to absorb the extra supply.
New arrivals may bring gradual softening, particularly in lower grades, easing buying conditions and putting suppliers under pressure. Good wholes still give sellers the stronger position and buyers fewer options. When fresh production will improve their availability remains unclear; that depends on quality and the grade mix.
The following CFR levels are indicative:
- Style 0 : $5.9/lb
- Style 1L : $5.6/lb
- Style 4L : $3.8/lb
- Style 4 : $3.7/lb
- Style 5 : $4.0/lb
- Style 6 : $3.60/lb
- Style 7 : $3.20/lb
- Style 8 : $1.80/lb
These are indications, not firm offers.
