The market signal
Later Turkish hazelnut arrivals have weakened the encouraging quality picture seen at the start of cracking. Persistent rain slowed drying and deliveries during September and October. With little sunshine and more of the crop exposed to wet conditions, later arrivals contained more rotten and damaged kernels.
The first lots had looked promising. Kernel yields were better, the spread of sizes was more favourable, and damage was less evident. Those early results are now a less useful guide to what is reaching cracking facilities. The change is in the condition of incoming nuts, not just the pace at which they arrive.
For buyers, an early assessment gives less reassurance about a later delivery. For suppliers, the quality coming through cracking now carries more commercial weight than the favourable impression left by the first arrivals.
What it means for buyers and sellers
Weather is not the only reason good material is harder to secure. Better-quality crop appears to be going to buyers paying a premium, leaving fewer suitable kernels available on the open market. That could make the samples circulating there look poorer than the Turkish harvest as a whole. Reported state procurement is also drawing material away from open-market circulation.
That squeeze does not mean demand is strong everywhere. Turkish exports started the season below their usual pace. The trade is dealing with difficulty securing the right quality alongside relatively quiet overseas buying, rather than a broad rush for supply.
Chile and Oregon offer a wider supply base, with crop estimates adding to the competition facing Turkey. Chile’s harvest is believed to be largely committed already, however, so its crop size alone gives an incomplete picture of availability for fresh business.
Alternative origins give buyers more choice, though the amount still available matters. Scarce good Turkish kernels support sellers, but slower exports and competition from other origins limit the scope for wider firming.
Market Reading
The next useful signals are damage levels in subsequent cracking, the arrival of lots meeting customer requirements, and whether export movement picks up.
How much of the incoming crop meets order requirements matters more to purchasing than arrival volume alone.
A recovery in export buying would give suppliers a broader outlet and leave buyers facing more competition for suitable material.