State buying and grower cash flow are separate
Many Turkish sultana growers have sold a portion of their raw material to the state purchasing organisation. That moves fruit out of grower ownership, but cash reaches the farm only when payment follows.
Separately, trade reports describe outstanding payments for October purchases. They link the delayed receipts to tighter cash flow in producing regions and weaker grower confidence. They also describe farmers’ frustration that raw-material returns have lagged behind the expense of growing and drying their fruit. Growers are therefore facing pressure on both what their fruit earns and when the money arrives.
They suggest financial strain could bring more farmer selling in the short term. They also flag a possible reduction in vineyard and quality investment over coming seasons if dissatisfaction persists. For buyers, institutional purchasing can coexist with further seller interest. For growers and other suppliers, payment timing still affects their ability to hold the fruit they retain.
Fuller supply meets immediate-needs purchasing
Industry reports describe worldwide dried-grape supply as fuller than in previous years. They also assess Turkey’s harvest as high, increasing the fruit available for export. The commercial difficulty is finding enough demand to absorb it.
Market reports describe Turkish domestic buying as sluggish. They judge the established importer base insufficient to take the seasonal surplus and describe exporters looking for additional outlets.
Industry sources describe buyers purchasing for current requirements and giving priority to prompt shipment. Fewer long-term contracts are being signed. That leaves suppliers with less business booked further ahead, even while nearby orders continue to provide an outlet.
Trade reports suggest the balance gives buyers more sourcing choice without requiring a broad forward commitment. Suppliers face the other side of that flexibility: more fruit needs a home, while a smaller part of future business is settled in advance.
Turkish values steady amid Chinese competition
Market reports describe Turkish sultana export values as steady after a sharp October fall. Chinese ready-to-use sultanas in Hamburg have softened slightly. The Turkish pause comes alongside continued Chinese competition in destinations where buyers are increasingly sensitive to cost.
In January, reports described China’s exports as mainly dark raisins, with ingredient buyers in Europe, Southeast Asia and Australia seeking that product. The competitive overlap therefore extends into food manufacturing, rather than resting only on retail snack demand.
In January, official forecasts estimated a production rebound for China’s 2025/26 marketing season, partly linked to more grapes going into drying as fresh-market returns weakened. Ingredient buyers still have alternatives; Turkish suppliers still face competition despite steady values.
Handling risks without a broader supply change
Reports forecast wet, cooler conditions in Turkish raisin regions in early November. For Malatya, they say most of the main crop is already stored. Humidity could still slow drying and affect the quality of remaining exposed fruit, while rain could delay farm movements and inland transport.
Those reports retain their overall supply assessment. The immediate exposure is in handling and movement, rather than a changed crop balance. Buyers may face lot-quality or shipment-timing problems if the weather interferes. Suppliers face the same practical risks when preparing and moving fruit, without a general shortage providing relief from competition.
Market Reading
Payment progress and any increase in farmer selling are the next developments to watch. Together, they would show whether cash pressure is easing or bringing more fruit into trade.
The January account linked China’s higher values at the start of 2024/25 to its supply shortfall and strong overseas demand. Traders attributed continued firmness in 2025/26, especially for green raisins, to sustained international buying despite an estimated production rebound. Chinese exports remained competitive even after that rise.
Raw-material values could stay sideways to weak if cash pressure brings more farmer selling. October’s sharp Turkish softening contrasted with broadly unchanged EU warehouse values. The near-term Turkish price outlook is stable to slightly softer. Institutional buying may support short-term stability, while processor sales needs and competition could bring renewed downward pressure into the coming year.
