Turkey Hazelnut Market Outlook: TMO Benchmark vs. Open-Market Signals

📈 The market signal

Turkey’s TMO announcement now provides a firmer official reference point for hazelnuts. Current market indications, however, suggest that open-market transactions remain well below the procurement benchmark.

The two signals serve different purposes. The official level reflects policy support and may influence seller expectations, while supplier indications are more relevant to immediately executable business.

Buyers should anchor negotiations in current trading evidence and monitor the TMO benchmark separately for signs of potential upward pressure.

📦 What it means for buyers

Current market indications point to ample availability, with no material improvement in demand yet evident. Preliminary observations suggest that the TMO announcement has added a slightly firmer tone, although open-market activity still appears limited by the broader supply-demand balance.

Near-term direction remains unclear. Official support may strengthen seller expectations and eventually feed into concluded transactions. Conversely, continued supplier availability and cautious purchasing may keep executable levels below the procurement reference.

Available indications do not yet confirm either outcome.

For purchasing decisions, using the TMO benchmark as an immediate replacement-cost proxy could overstate today’s tradable market. Ignoring it entirely would risk missing policy-driven firmness.

Procurement teams should therefore follow completed business and supplier availability alongside the official reference, without treating the two as equivalent.

🎯 Buyer Decision

Ask suppliers to refresh indications by quality, kernel yield, required volume and shipment period. Assess those quotes independently against the TMO benchmark, focusing on whether the gap narrows in completed transactions rather than only through higher asking levels.

Current indications:

Hazelnut Paste: €5.40–5.90/kg
Blanched Diced, Roasted: €7.10–7.50/kg
Blanched, Roasted: €7.70–9.75/kg
Whole Roasted Hazelnuts for Chocolate: €9.20/kg
Natural Hazelnuts: €6.95–8.85/kg

All prices FCA Giresun. These levels are approximate market indications and should not be treated as firm offers.

Provide the required quantity and shipment window so suppliers can be approached for a firm quotation.