Import growth serves onward trade
Türkiye expects pistachio imports to rise in MY 2026/27 while domestic consumption is forecast to fall. The explanation is straightforward: imported nuts mainly feed processing and onward exports, rather than Turkish household demand.
Processors bring material in for sizing, roasting and packing before shipping it abroad. Some imports stay in warehouses for later export. An arrival can therefore support future export business without adding nuts to domestic retail shelves.
The customs structure reinforces that separation. Domestic entry carries a substantial MFN duty, while qualifying free-zone processing for re-export is exempt. Removal of the additional U.S. retaliatory tariff improved American origin’s relative treatment; the separate domestic-entry duty remains.
Rising imports point to onward-trade activity, not easier access for Turkish consumers. Suppliers selling to processors depend mainly on export business, rather than a recovery in local spending.
Imported origin, Turkish processing
U.S. and Iranian pistachios have historically supplied most of Türkiye’s re-export business, with sorting and packing carried out in Turkish free zones. Both origins also led imports in MY 2025/26. American material supplied the majority, and its share increased compared with MY 2024/25.
Exports are predominantly shelled. Leading destinations include Syria and Iraq, alongside Italy and Germany, giving processors exposure to several markets beyond Türkiye.
There is already an observed inbound signal: U.S. shipments to Türkiye rose sharply in September 2026 against September 2025. The full-season export outlook still depends on steady demand for re-exported nuts.
For buyers sourcing through Türkiye, local processing and growing origin are separate attributes of the purchase.
Affordability weighs on domestic use
Affordability is weighing on domestic use. Our reading is that high consumer costs are reducing pistachio snacking, against a background of persistent general and food inflation. More expensive pistachio-containing desserts also underpin the weaker seasonal consumption outlook.
Confectionery accounts for most estimated domestic use, particularly baklava. Snack weakness therefore describes one important outlet, rather than movement across every ingredient application. Walnuts offer a cheaper option in some desserts and are expected to attract substitution demand as pistachios become more expensive.
Longer-term changes continue alongside that pressure. Pistachios have found broader uses in chocolate, ice cream and other desserts. Urban consumers are also moving toward packaged supermarket nuts. Loose sales still have a place within snacking, while convenience and discount shopping are expected to lift the packaged proportion.
For domestic buyers, demand conditions differ between snack and confectionery outlets. For suppliers, a change in pack format or retail channel is not a recovery in aggregate consumption.
Carryover does not guarantee stock release
The domestic harvest offers only modest relief. Production is forecast to recover in MY 2026/27, but remains weak for a nominal on-year. Our assessment points to lingering tree stress after the record MY 2024/25 harvest and localized frost effects from MY 2025/26. Spring hail added damage in some growing areas.
Historically, Turkish-grown nuts have mainly been consumed at home. Carryover from that record harvest continues to support this domestic balance. The ending-stock outlook assumes restrained consumption and traders selling only part of their holdings. Many traders appear to regard stored pistachios as protection against inflation.
Carryover supports buyers only as holders release it for sale, while competition for domestic suppliers depends on both the limited harvest recovery and how much stored material is sold.
Upstream supply remains constrained
Turkish processors are buying into a tighter upstream market. The U.S. crop is expected to be sharply smaller than the preceding record harvest. Iranian expectations also point to a smaller new crop, with limited fresh selling and rial depreciation accompanying that restraint.
Iran nevertheless carried substantial inventory beyond the completed crop-2025 marketing year, when annual exports declined. Most opening inventory was used during the season, counting exports and estimated domestic consumption. Some final-month exports fulfilled earlier commitments, so shipment activity and fresh business were moving on different tracks.
Kernel demand drove Iranian exports. Kernels, green kernels and closed-shell raw material represented a large part of that trade. Türkiye also gained relative importance within Iran’s destination mix in MY 2025/26; this describes its share rather than an increase in absolute shipments.
Iranian exporters face higher freight, insurance and logistics costs, alongside regulatory difficulties. Turkish processing does not shield buyers from these origin constraints. Processor demand in Türkiye competes for origin supply, while Iranian carryover is not automatically available for sale.
Market Reading
Actual arrivals and onward shipments are the next developments to watch, alongside ingredient buying abroad and snack movement within Türkiye. Later consumption assessments will help show how the domestic season is developing.
European food manufacturing provides relevant destination context, with pistachio ingredient use expanding. Manufacturers can work with broken material or smaller nuts, as well as paste, rather than requiring the presentation sought for snacking. Consistent flavour, colour and safety still govern acceptance.
The route also affects EU food-safety controls. Turkish and Iranian pistachios face special controls, while some American-grown nuts sent through Türkiye are also checked.
For buyers, the finished specification and dispatch route affect product acceptance independently of where processing takes place.
For suppliers, access to overseas manufacturing demand gives processing business a different commercial exposure from sales serving Turkish households.