The market signal
September gave the almond market a firmer footing. Sales improved from August and were stronger than a year earlier, while export shipments helped lift overall movement. Our near-term reading is stable to firm: sellers have less immediate pressure to discount, even though aggregate availability is not tight.
The improvement matters because it comes from actual trading activity. New business exceeded the month’s shipments, so the stronger sales performance went beyond replacing almonds already moving out. That gives the market more support than shipment performance alone would suggest. It also changes the tone after the quieter sales activity earlier in the season.
Exports are doing the work here. Domestic demand is still weak, with both deliveries and outstanding domestic business below their year-earlier levels. The better overall result therefore reflects overseas activity rather than a recovery across all demand channels. That distinction matters when judging how much momentum September has brought into the market.
Supply expectations are contributing to the firmer tone as well. Our market read points to a smaller crop, with weaker pollinator yields an important reason expectations have moved lower. Those expectations affect sellers’ willingness to offer, alongside the improvement in business already concluded.
At the same time, the early flow through hullers has been brisk. An earlier harvest and quicker processing help explain why receipts have arrived faster. The pace of arrivals tells us when almonds are entering the system; final harvest results will tell us how much the crop ultimately contains. Current expectations are for receipts to slow as that early processing advantage passes.
We expect price movements to stay relatively contained as harvesting progresses and buyers test prevailing offers. The support is meaningful, but the immediate reading is steadier trading rather than an open-ended price advance.
What it means for buyers and sellers
The stock position adds an important commercial distinction. Receipts expanded available supply faster than stronger shipments drew it down. Inventory consequently increased, and more almonds remained uncommitted than at the same point a year earlier. Suppliers still have a larger volume requiring sales, despite the better month of business.
Inventory includes almonds already sold but awaiting delivery, as well as stock without a sales commitment. Those portions have different implications for the trade. Contracted stock represents delivery obligations; uncommitted stock represents business still to be secured. Here, the increase in unsold volume is the relevant measure of sellers’ remaining sales exposure.
Outstanding commitments were lower overall, with weaker domestic commitments outweighing the improvement in export commitments. Reporting coverage limits a precise year-on-year reading of that comparison. The export delivery increase was also much stronger than the rise in export business awaiting shipment. A busy shipping period and a growing forward order book are separate developments, and September’s strongest evidence lies in deliveries.
For buyers, the changed negotiating backdrop is clearest in the reduced urgency on the selling side. Earlier weak sales had given European buyers room to press U.S. offers lower while sourcing Spanish almonds. Better September trading has since strengthened U.S. sellers’ position in those discussions. The amount held in stock alone does not determine how readily a supplier accepts a lower bid; recent sales also affect that decision.
For sellers, the outstanding commercial task is to convert the remaining unsold almonds into orders. A more comfortable position in today’s negotiations does not remove that exposure over the selling season.
Europe also illustrates the demand test at current levels. Our market assessment anticipates renewed European interest in U.S. supply, but higher almond costs and a weaker euro make landed purchases more expensive. Buyers there face a purchasing-cost constraint just as suppliers feel less pressure to concede. That makes the strength of returning orders especially relevant to how much support the market can sustain.
Market Reading
The next position report’s new-sales, receipts and commitment readings will be the useful test. New orders relative to fresh arrivals will show whether the trade is beginning to absorb the unsold balance. The relationship matters more than a strong headline in either measure on its own.
Export follow-through deserves particular attention after festive-season replenishment. Our reading is that Indian buying could pause while importers assess stocks after the celebrations. Subsequent orders will help distinguish continuing consumption-led demand from the earlier seasonal build. That is a useful test of whether September’s overseas pace carries forward.
Later harvest returns will also sharpen the supply picture as the early processing rush passes. Slower arrivals accompanied by sustained new business would give the current support a different foundation from slower arrivals accompanied by quieter buying. Together, those developments will show whether the next phase is changing the stock balance, rather than only the willingness to sell.